The final round of U.S. Open qualifying will take place on Friday at Flushing Meadows. A two-team panel–Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Ben Rothenberg of the New York Times–weighs in by predicting all 16 matches.
Ricky:
1. Tobias Kamke over Alessandro Giannessi. Play on Thursday was delayed due to rain and Kamke got victimized, as he needed a third-set tiebreaker to beat Dmitry Popko and did not finish until around 1:30 a.m. But Giannessi is coming off a similarly tough one against Yuichi Sugita.
2. Christian Harrison over Steven Diez. The pressure is going to be on Diez. Not only is he the obvious favorite, but this is also his ninth time in qualifying for a Grand Slam and he has never successfully played his way into a main draw. Given what Harrison has been through, you can’t pick against him.
3. Karen Khachanov over Noah Rubin. Khachanov is up to No. 96 in the world, but missed the U.S. Open main-draw cut like at the entry deadline earlier this summer. The 20-year-old Russian simply has far more weapons than Rubin at this point in their careers.
4. Daniel Brands over Guido Andreozzi. Brands is the sentimental pick here, as the 29-year-old’s career has been plagued by injury since he once peaked as high as 51st in the rankings. On a relatively fast hard court, Brands is also the smart pick.
5. Aleksandr Nedovyesov over Jan Satral. Satral has never won an ATP-level match and he has only contested one in his entire career, so an appearance in the main draw of a slam would be borderline shocking for the 26-year-old. It probably won’t happen.
6. Steve Darcis over Enrique Lopez-Perez. Darcis is a top-50 talent when he’s healthy; the problem is he’s almost never healthy. But the Belgian must be feeling pretty good this week in New York, because he has not dropped a set in wins over Tommy Paul and Duckhee Lee.
7. Martin Fucsovics over Lorenzo Giustino. Fucsovics owns 13 career ATP-level match victories; Giustino has zero. A main-draw appearance in a major will be a first for either player, but it is more likely for Fucsovics–who is making his third trip to the final round of qualifying at a slam.
8. Alejandro Gonzalez over Thomas Fabbiano. Gonzalez reached the second round in 2014 and successfully qualified last year, so he knows what he’s doing at the U.S. Open. The Colombian has looked good through two rounds with blowouts of Luca Vanni and Albert Montanes.
9. Radek Stepanek over Axel Michon. At 37 years old, Stepanek is still playing solid tennis–maybe not to the same extent as Ivo Karlovic, but he is certainly at a strong enough level to take care of Michon. The 231st-ranked Frenchman had never previously won any slam match (not even in qualifying).
10. Alexander Sarkissian over Guilherme Clezar. Sarkissian has advanced with two wins over Frenchman, including a very good one at the expense of Quentin Halys (7-6(1), 6-2 on Thursday). Clezar beat Tim Smyczek in the second round, but Smyczek has been in a massive slump.
11. Ryan Harrison over Henri Laaksonen. The head-to-head series stands at 2-1 in favor of Harrison, with all three meetings having come in the last two seasons at the Challenger level. Harrison, a recent third-round performer in Toronto, beat Laaksonen 6-3, 7-6(2) earlier this year in Tallahassee.
12. Matthias Bachinger over Ilya Ivashka. Ivashka is ranked 181st in the world; Bachinger is No. 514. But it is Ivashka whom basically no one has ever heard of. Bachinger is finally healthy again and is coming off a decent second-round defeat of Joao Souza.
13. Pedja Krstin over Saketh Myneni. This is a tough one to call, but Krstin has advanced with two good wins over an in-form Daniil Medvedev and No. 13 seed Dennis Novikov. The Serb has not surrendered a set and has won three in tiebreakers in addition to a 7-5, so he’s clearly playing clutch tennis.
14. Jared Donaldson over Santiago Giraldo. This is hands down the best matchup in the final round of qualifying. Giraldo struggled with Marcelo Arevalo and dropped a set to Reilly Opelka before getting a retirement. Donaldson, coming off two straight-set wins, is playing the best tennis of his life.
15. Jozef Kovalik over Marco Chiudinelli. Experience is on Chiudinelli’s side, but youth is on the side of Kovalik–11 years the Swiss’ junior at 23. Kovalik’s season includes a second-round showing in Indian Wells as a qualifier, and he pushed a red-hot Dominic Thiem to two tiebreakers.
16. Mischa Zverev over Sekou Bangoura. Could the older Zverev brother have asked for a better draw in the final round of qualifying? Probably not. Bangoura is No. 246 in the world (he’s never been higher) and he had never even been in any slam qualifying draw prior to this week. This may be a mismatch.
Ben:
1. Tobias Kamke over Alessandro Giannessi. On pure name recognition alone. Yuichi Sugita losing to Giannessi is the biggest shock of qualies.
2. Steven Diez over Christian Harrison. What a great draw for both these dudes; huge opportunity. Would love to see Lil’ Harry make the move, but reeling off three big stage wins may prove too much too soon.
3. Karen Khachanov over Noah Rubin. Karen Khachanov is legit, and probably the best “Next Gen” guy among the relatively unhyped. Rubin will make him work for it, though.
4. Daniel Brands over Guido Andreozzi. Daniel Brands has had awful injury luck in his career. Healthy, he’d be pushing to be seeded at these sorts of tournaments.
5. Aleksandr Nedovyesov over Jan Satral. A guy who was worth Kazakhstan’s money should be worth a win over an opponent as unproven as Satral.
6. Steve Darcis over Enrique Lopez-Perez. Darcis is dangerous when healthy. ELP is not.
7. Martin Fucsovics over Lorenzo Giustino. Fucsovics is crazy talented, if a clear underachiever, and I know nothing about Giustino.
8. Alejandro Gonzalez over Thomas Fabbiano. Gonzalez should be a top 100 player again; he certainly has the talent. Hopefully the Colombian fiasco at Davis Cup instilled some sort of renewed hunger in him.
9. Radek Stepanek over Axel Michon. Radek Stepanek would school any player in this draw. That simple.
10. Guilherme Clezar over Alexander Sarkissian. Would’ve been a marqueeish Halys vs. Tim Smyczek QR3 but these guys had other plans. I saw the end of Clezar’s win over Smyczek and Smyczek looked so lost that Clezar must be doing something right.
11. Henri Laaksonen over Ryan Harrison. I saw these two play once in Charlottesville and Laaksonen won. I realize Harrison won the other two, but hey, I’m biased by what I’ve seen with my own eyes. (I’m gonna get this one wrong).
12. Ilya Ivashka over Mathias Bachinger. Chalk this one up to rest. Ivashka is young, Bachinger is not. Definitely one of the less heralded QR3s out there.
13. Pedja Krstin over Saketh Myneni. There was a massive influx of Serbs in the qualifying draw. The Novak Djokovic echo generation may finally be here. Krstin the only one I think will actually make the big show.
14. Jared Donaldson over Santiago Giraldo. This match is crazy tough for qualies, and would be an entirely acceptable R1 of the main draw. Both guys may well be top 50ish by this time next year. Think crowd may prove the difference.
15. Jozef Kovalik over Marco Chiudinelli. I’ve been pretty into Kovalik since I saw him play a fairly meaningless match during Operation Platypus at the Australian Open in 2015. He’s played way more meaningful matches this year than Chiudinelli, so that should push him through.
16. Mischa Zverev over Sekou Bangoura. Mischa Zverev is a former top-50 guy playing like he expects to be there again soon. Biggest match, by far, of Sekou Bangoura’s life, and the stakes may prove too high.
who ya got?
I’ll take Diez over BabyRyan.
#GoCanada
Disagree with Ben’s statement that stepanek would school anyone in the draw but he would school a lot of em.
who wouldn’t he?
I meant I don’t think guys like Donaldson and zverev etc. wouldn’t get schooled by him. But he’s probably one of the best in the draw if not the best considering he’s a former world number 8 and all lol.
I meant I think* they wouldn’t get schooled by him. As in I don’t think stepanek would school Zverev or Donaldson.
You know I’ll have my picks up soon lol
Would love to see sekou go through, although bug doubt that it will happen
yep
Final round qualifying picks-
1) Kamke over Giannessi: Kamke is the far more experienced player, and I don’t know how Giannessi even beat Sugita.
2) C. Harrison over Diez: I’ve gotta go with the American. I’m pulling for him to get it done like most will be and he’s been so impressive in his comeback from all those injuries, and if he can take down Kravchuk, he can take down Diez.
3) Rubin over Khachanov: Rubin is a fighter, and he will have more determination to get the win, and a big hitting teen who can be inconsistent like Khachanov seems like a good matchup for the solid Rubin who is also steadily improving his weapons.
4) Brands over Andreozzi: Brands should win this match with his bigger and better game for this surface. Andreozzi has been pretty impressive though with his quick wins over Ilhan and Melzer.
5) Satral over Nedovyesov: This has a good chance of being wrong, but Nedovyesov beat Kyrgios in 2014 yet wasn’t even seeded in the qualies here so he’s an inconsistent talent who could falter against Satral, who has nothing to lose, at least compared to the favorite Nedovyesov.
6) Darcis over Lopez-Perez: The Belgian will successfully qualify without dropping a set.
7) Fucsovics over Giustino: Fucsovics has somehow never qualified for a slam despite the good talent he has, but that should change here.
8) Gonzalez over Fabbiano: At first I was thinking of picking the scrappy Fabbiano, but I went with Gonzalez because his form has been really good, including a drubbing of Montanes last round.
9) Stepanek over Michon: Stepanek should qualify pretty comfortably.
10) Sarkissian over Clezar: I may be a little biased in picking all these Americans, but I do really think they all have good shots at winning. Sarkissian is a solid player who will have more crowd support than his opponent thus taking down the Brazilian.
11) R. Harrison over Laaksonen: Harrison has been playing really solid tennis lately. Seems like he’s putting the pieces together at the moment. Don’t wanna speak too soon, but I could see not only him qualifying but a possible run in the main draw.
12) Bachinger over Ivashka: Based off current form, Ivashka may be the favorite, but Bachinger has played in slams and has lots more experience than Ivashka at this level, so I have him notching a three set win.
13) Krstin over Myneni: Krstin has been impressive and has a pretty promising future. I have him scoring another win to reach his first grand slam main draw.
14) Donaldson over Giraldo: Giraldo could win this, but Donaldson is in awesome form, so I have him getting through in three.
15) Chiudinelli over Kovalik: This could go either way, but I’m taking the Swiss veteran to score a nice win and make his first slam main draw in a while.
16) M. Zverev over Bangoura: Zverev should simply be too solid for his American opponent.
The Hungarian made it! I’ve not seen Fucsovics. Interesting to see where he lands in the main draw!
Saketh Myneni made the main draw for the first time too. That was a tough pick over Pedja Krstin. Both fighters.
Geez. I have barely got a pick right on the men’s side all week but congrats to me! 14 of 16 right 😀
Hope it’s a good sign for my bracket.
Yay. Ryan Harrison made it. 🙂
My pick was Alejandro Gonzalez over Fabbiano – but hope Fabbiano makes it.
Andreozzi over Brands
Clezar over Sarkissian
Myneni over Krstin
Ilya Ivashko over Bachinger
Satral over Nedovyesov
Giustino over Fucsovics
Chewy over Kovalik (cheering for chewy but think Kovalik will win)
Khachanov! though I’d be happy for Noah if he won
Donaldson…..no really not – probably Santi
Harrison over the Canadian
Steve Darcis over Lopez-Perez
Giannessi over Kamke – Forza Italia!
Stepanek over the French
Fingers crossed for Bangoura but I think Mischa will win.
WTA Qualie Winners:
Americans:
Muhammad, Ahn, Pegula, Bellis, Townsend, Brady, Abanda (Canadian)
Good chance for Muhammad but Richel HogenKamp is tough
Ahn already lost to Belgian, Elise Mertens (expected)
Abanda will lose. The Romanians are too good. Bogdan will win.
Montserrat Gonzalez – 22 yr, old from Paraguay, over Bulagarian Tomova, I hope.
Minelli from Luxembourg of course.
Krunic – Serbian gymnast of course
Jessica Pegula has a tough one with Japan’s, Ozaki.
China’s Duan over Sweden’s Peterson
Cici Bellis, fingers crossed but she’s up against tall, talented Alison Van Uytvanck.
Vekic over Podoroska
Americans, Jennifer Brady goes up against Taylor Townsend. win-win
Robson over the German Maria, maybe
Cepelova over Haas
Kucova over Sorribes-Tombo
And the rest I dont’ know.
Vekic didn’t make it. My theory is that this will help Stan concentrate — he won’t be monitoring matches and coaching her.?
Good wins for Americans, Cici Bellis over Alison Van Uytvanck; and for Jessica Pegula over tough fighter, Risa Ozaki. Congrats… into the main draw!
Ryan Harrison qualified without dropping a set after pulverizing Laaksonen and now is helping his team lead in the world team tennis finals. Also Christian qualified!! Such an amazing story that he came back from all these injuries and surgeries to win three matches straight to qualify. All from a set down too. The crowd must’ve really helped him. I wish they showed it on tv like they have in previous years or at least a live stream on YouTube. Would’ve liked to see his reaction to getting this amazing victory. I just hope they don’t play first round lol. What I want is each brother to get in one of the two qualifier vs qualifier matches. Let’s go Harrisons!!
Yeah that was a great story about Christian Harrison, Benny. I think I read it from a post of yours somewhere here?
Americans that made it through qualifying:
Jared Donaldson, Ryan Harrison, Christian Harrison
Cici Bellis, Taylor Townsend, Jessica Pegula
Go ‘Mericans ??
First time grand slam main draw for these players: Saketh Myneni, Marton Fucsovics, Alessandro Giannessi, Christian Harrison, Karen Khachanov, Jan Satral, Guilherme Clezar, and Ilya Ivashka. So exactly half the qualifiers are playing in their first grand slam main draw. Should be interesting to see where they’re placed. Hoping a few can win a match at least especially the Harrison bros or Donaldson. I don’t think Christian will win one but Ryan and Donaldson have good shots.
Qualifiers just got posted in the main draw. Of the three Americans Donaldson probably got the worst draw while Christian Harrison got the best. He gets Mathieu and Kohlshreiber/Mahut if he wins. Ryan got Mannarino then Raonic or Brown. And Donaldson got Goffin first round. The all qualifier matchups are Chiudinelli/Clezar and Khachanov/Fabbiano. Big opportunities for those guys. Myneni got Vesely first round, Andreozzi got Tsonga first round, Giannessi has winnable match against Kudla, Darcis has winnable first rounder against Thompson, Kovalik has first rounder he could win against Pospisil, Zverev has pretty good opportunity against Herbert, Satral has amazing draw for first grand slam against McDonald, Fucsovics has an interesting one with Almagro, Ivashka got PCB, Brands got the younger Zverev, and that’s it for the qualifiers. Really not bad draws for these guys in their first rounders. The ones with the toughest are probably Andreozzi and Donaldson. Those are the only guys who got seeds round one in fact.
Great! I’ll pick my bracket after this New Haven semi ? Aga is a set up on Petra!
Jared Donaldson – cant pick him to win against Goffin. But I think he can make a couple sets close, and win a set, maybe…thinking home crowd. Goffin in 4.
Christian Harrison – I’ll go ‘merican and pick him over Mathieu but not over Kohls.
Ryan Harrison – can he take Mannarino??
Clezar over Chewy in 5
Khachanov or Fabbiano is a tricky pick in Bo5.
Vesely over Myneni because experience.
Why is Giannessi over Kudla a good chance? Giannessi match tough coming thru qualies?
Tsonga over Andreozzi
Darcis over Thompson
Kovalik over Pospisil
Herbert over Zverev
Satral over McDonald.
Ah I don’t know Fucsovics well enough. And you never know with Almagro. It’s tempting.
Ivashka was brilliant getting thu qualies and he’s a good prospect but PCB is too solid.
Sascha over Brands.
Because Giannessi beat Sugita and Kamke in qualies and kudla atm is probably worse than both. He’s playing awful. In fact he’s lost seven straight matches. His last was and 0 and 3 loss at the Olympics to Andrej Martin. Also the last match he won was in early June in Stuttgart. He could get a much needed win round one as this is of course a great draw and opportunity for him to get back on track. Still I have a feeling he may lose that one. I mean he’s down to 128 in the world now after being #53 in May.