2016 Wimbledon draw analysis

Novak Djokovic does not have a particularly favorable draw at Wimbledon. The question is: will it matter? Djokovic and Roger Federer are on a collision course for the semifinals. The question is: will it happen? Andy Murray appears to be in good shape on the other side of the bracket, but his path is not without danger—mainly in the form of Nick Kyrgios. Stan Wawrinka’s quarter, not surprisingly, is the one that is most wide open.

Djokovic’s quarter

Unless Federer is struggling physically and bows out early, Djokovic’s road through the All-England Club seems plainly obvious: Milos Raonic in the quarterfinals, Federer in the semis, and Murray in the title match. Before any of that happens, the top-ranked Serb will likely take out a duo of Brits in James Ward and Kyle Edmund. The Sam Querrey-Lukas Rosol winner will be a potential third-round opponent for Djokovic, while David Ferrer and Philipp Kohlschreiber are possible fourth-round adversaries.

On this surface, Raonic should not have any real problem advancing to the last eight. David Goffin may have been a substantial roadblock on the clay courts of Roland Garros and the same goes for Jack Sock, but neither is at his best on grass. At 100 percent, Kevin Anderson would be a serious threat to Raonic in the last 16. But the South African’s season has been plagued by injury and he is not the same guy who led Djokovic by two sets to love at Wimbledon in 2015.

Best first-round matchup – (27) Jack Sock vs. Ernests Gulbis

Surprisingly, Sock and Gulbis have never faced each other. Their first meeting could be a good one. Gulbis had been in disastrous form throughout this season before suddenly heating up at the French Open, where he advanced to the fourth round (albeit while getting a huge assist in the form of a retirement from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga). The 61^st-ranked Latvian is much worse on grass than he is on clay, but Sock is also far from his best on the green stuff. Given this draw, each player has a decent chance of reaching the third round.

Best potential second-round matchup – (13) David Ferrer vs. Nicolas Mahut
Best potential third-round matchup – (11) David Goffin vs. (20) Kevin Anderson

Possible surprises – Djokovic will undoubtedly be the semifinal representative from the top section of the bracket. A surprising fourth-round entrant, however, could be Nicolas Mahut. The veteran Frenchman, of course, is already famous at Wimbledon for a match he lost; now he could make noise in the win column. All four of Mahut’s ATP titles have come on grass, including three in ‘s-Hertogenbosch—the most recent of which came earlier this month. The world No. 50 opens with unheralded British wild card Brydan Klein and his nearest seeds are a slumping Ferrer and a beatable Kohlschreiber.

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Federer’s quarter

Federer would have preferred to land in Murray’s half as opposed to that of Djokovic, but the rest of the Friday’s draw ceremony was a kind one for the 34-year-old Swiss. He missed Roland Garros due to a back injury and lost in the semifinals in both Stuttgart and Halle, so what Federer needs is matches. The world No. 3 should get two routine ones—against Guido Pella and then either Ricardas Berankis or Marcus Willis—before the pace picks up. Federer will presumably have shifted into high gear by the time he runs into the likes of Alexandr Dolgopolov, Gael Monfils, Marin Cilic, and/or Kei Nishikori.

The unseeded floaters in this section are where the seeds are weakest, so upsets should be plentiful. Watch out especially for Sergiy Stakhovsky (beat Federer at the All-England Club in 2013), Gilles Muller (recent ‘s-Hertogenbosch runner-up), Andrey Kuznetsov, and Borna Coric.

Best first-round matchup — (17) Gael Monfils vs. Jeremy Chardy

Monfils and Chardy may hail from the same country and partake in many of the same tournaments, but they have gone head-to-head only once at the ATP level, twice in total, and zero times since the end of the 2009 season. All five of their contested sets have gone the way of Monfils, who prevailed at the 2008 Marrakech Challenger and one season later at the U.S. Open. But the world No. 16 missed Roland Garros because of a virus and has not played since Rome or won a match since Madrid. Grass is also his worst surface. As such, Chardy should have a chance.

Best potential second-round matchup – (9) Marin Cilic vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky
Best potential third-round matchup – (5) Kei Nishikori vs. Gilles Muller

Possible surprises — If Federer is less than 100 percent, Monfils or Dolgopolov could steal a quarterfinal spot. But the surprises are more likely to take place on the other side of this section. Nishikori has never been a factor on grass and Cilic, even though he turned in a recent runner-up performance at Queen’s Club, has been unreliable at best since winning the 2014 U.S. Open. It would not be unrealistic to expect an unseeded Wimbledon quarterfinalist in this spot, and it could be Muller.

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Wawrinka’s quarter

Disregarding the possibility that Federer is still struggling physically, there is clear-cut group of three favorites—albeit in a clear-cut order of Djokovic, followed by Murray, followed by Federer. The top-four seed on the outside looking in is Wawrinka, who is a two-time major champion but has never even reached the Wimbledon semifinals. As such, Wawrinka’s quarter at Wimbledon was always going to be the most intriguing in terms of competitiveness. And the draw did nothing to change that.

Dominic Thiem, Tomas Berdych, Roberto Bautista Agut, Bernard Tomic, and Alexander Zverev are all worthy contenders, but none is immune to being upset early. The unseeded contingent in this section includes Florian Mayer, Fernando Verdasco, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Taylor Fritz. Use a pencil while filling in your picks in this quarter of the bracket, because an eraser may have to be utilized early and often. Things could get crazy.

Best first-round matchup — (8) Dominic Thiem vs. Florian Mayer

If someone told you at the beginning of this season that Thiem vs. Mayer would be an interesting first-rounder at Wimbledon, you’d have responded that they were crazy. After all, Mayer was outside the top 200 and basically inactive due to injury; Thiem had won two grass-court matches in his entire career. But the 22-year-old Austrian is now a French Open semifinalist and he followed up that performance by capturing a title on the grass courts of Stuttgart. Finally healthy, Mayer lifted a winner’s trophy the very next week in Halle—after upsetting none other than Thiem in the semifinals. Get your popcorn ready for the rematch.

Best potential second-round matchup – (4) Stan Wawrinka vs. Juan Martin Del Potro
Best potential third-round matchup – (10) Tomas Berdych vs. (24) Alexander Zverev

Possible surprises — With Rafael Nadal having already withdrawn from the French Open, Thiem and Zverev went head-to-head in the third round knowing that a semifinal spot was entirely up for grabs. The two fast-rising stars are on course to square off again, this time in the Wimbledon fourth round. And once again, a place in the semifinals would not be an unrealistic dream for the winner. No fellow seed in this quarter will strike fear into either Thiem or Zverev, and no unseeded floater in the near vicinity other than Mayer looks poised to pull off an upset.

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Murray’s quarter

If Murray’s 13-16 seed had been Ferrer, Bautista Agut, or Gilles Simon instead of Kyrgios, his draw would have been just about ideal from start to finish. As it stands, the second-ranked Scot’s only tough test prior to the semis could come against Kyrgios during fourth-round action. Prior to that, Murray will open with Liam Broady before likely facing Yen-Hsun Lu and then either Benoit Paire or John Millman. Kyrgios, on the other hand, will deserve a gold star if he manages to navigate his way into the last 16 against the No. 2 seed.

If the seeds hold to form, the other fourth-rounder in this quarter would pit Tsonga against Richard Gasquet. Tsonga, as usual, is an injury-induced question mark after retiring in the French Open third round. Gasquet, on the contrary, thrived at Roland Garros by reaching the quarterfinals for the first time in his up-and-down career. But the world No. 10 is a mercurial performer whose momentum can evaporate just as fast as it arrived. John Isner, Marcos Baghdatis, and 2015 quarterfinalist Vasek Pospisil could capitalize if Gasquet and Tsonga falter.

Best first-round matchup — (18) John Isner vs. Marcos Baghdatis

Don’t be fooled by Isner’s 6-0 lead over Baghdatis in the head-to-head series; this one could be a thriller. Baghdatis has taken a set in three of their last four encounters and the only exception came in last summer’s Atlanta title match, during which the Cypriot was compromised by a leg injury. Their only previous Grand Slam meeting also came during first-round action, with Isner surviving 7-6(2), 7-6(11), 2-6, 6-4 at the 2011 U.S. Open. Whereas the 6’10’’ American played only two warmup matches on grass prior to Wimbledon, Baghdatis advanced to quarterfinals in both Queen’s Club and Nottingham.

Best potential second-round matchup – (15) Nick Kyrgios vs. (WC) Dustin Brown
Best potential third-round matchup – (7) Richard Gasquet vs. Vasek Pospisil

Possible surprises — From an intrigue standpoint, all unbiased tennis fans are looking forward to a Murray-Kyrgios fourth-round showdown. The British faithful, though, obviously want no part of that. And the host nation may not have to endure it, because Kyrgios’ draw is a brutal one. Murray’s opponent in the last 16 could end up being Stepanek, Brown, or Lopez. On the other side of this section, the Isner-Baghdatis winner will have a decent shot at making a run to the quarterfinals.

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