French Open R3 previews and predictions: Murray vs. Karlovic, Nishikori vs. Verdasco

Andy Murray will continue what has been a roller-coaster French Open campaign when he faces Ivo Karlovic during third-round action on Friday. Kei Nishikori and Fernando Verdasco are also hoping to snag a spot in the last 16.

(27) Ivo Karlovic vs. (2) Andy Murray

Survive and advance has been Murray’s mantra so far at the French Open. In his opener against qualifier Radek Stepanek, the second-seeded Scot recovered from a two-set deficit to prevail 3-6, 3-6, 6-0, 6-3, 7-5. Facing an even bigger underdog on Wednesday in the form of French wild card Mathias Bourgue, Murray escaped with another five-set victory (6-2, 2-6, 4-6, 6-2, 6-3). It was not supposed to be like this for the world No. 2, who stormed into Roland Garros with plenty of clay-court momentum. He reached the semifinals in Monte-Carlo, took out Rafael Nadal en route to a runner-up finish in Madrid, and beat Novak Djokovic to lift the Rome trophy.

A much different type of match than the ones offered by Stepanek and Bourgue will be in store for Murray on Friday. It will not be an unfamiliar matchup, either. The two-time Grand Slam champion is a perfect 6-0 lifetime against Karlovic, including 4-0 on hard courts and 2-0 on grass. They most recently faced each other last summer at Wimbledon, where Murray got the job done 7-6(7), 6-4, 5-7, 6-4. Although both men prefer faster surfaces, clay is more conducive to the favorite’s game. Karlovic struggled against unheralded Australian Jordan Thompson in round two, but he still managed to fire 41 aces in a 6-7(2), 6-3, 7-6(3), 6-7(4), 12-10 triumph. The 6’11” Croat preceded that result by taking care of Albert Montanes 6-2, 7-6(7), 7-6(5). He is still just 6-10 lifetime at this tournament and has never advanced past the third round. Karlovic is unlikely to get over the hump this time against one of the best returners in the game.

Pick: Murray in 4

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(5) Kei Nishikori vs. Fernando Verdasco

Nishikori and Verdasco will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers on Friday. Verdasco is leading the head-to-head series 2-1, but he has not gotten the best of Nishikori since 2012 and one of his wins came via retirement. In their most recent meeting at the 2015 Indian Wells Masters, Nishikori battled to a 6-7(6), 6-1, 6-4 victory. The Japanese star is an even bigger favorite at this point, given the respective form of the two players. Nishikori registers at sixth in the world thanks in part to a 31-9 record for the season, which includes a fourth consecutive title in Memphis, a final appearance in Barcelona, and semifinal performances in Madrid and Rome. So far this fortnight the No. 5 seed has rolled over Simone Bolelli and Andrey Kuznetsov in straight sets.

Like Nishikori, Verdasco has not yet dropped a set at Roland Garros nor has he even been extended to a tiebreaker. The world No. 52 beat Steve Johnson 7-5, 6-4, 7-5 before ousting Ivan Dodig 6-2, 6-1, 6-3. Verdasco is a relatively respectable 16-10 on the year, but these dominant performances have come mostly out of nowhere. Although his clay-court swing includes a title in Bucharest, it has also been bogged down by early losses at five other events. Clearly a confident Verdasco is back on track in Paris, so this one should be competitive. But a red-hot Nishikori will likely be too solid off both wings from the back of the court and should ultimately break down his opponent by dictating rallies and keeping the Spaniard well behind the baseline.

Pick: Nishikori in 4

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