Barcelona QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Fognini, Paire vs. Jaziri

April 21, 2016 Ricky Match previews 104

Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini will renew their rivalry during quarterfinal action on Friday in Barcelona. Benoit Paire and Malek Jaziri are also bidding for a place in the last four.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (12) Fabio Fognini

Nadal and Fognini will be squaring off for the 10th time in their careers when they meet again in the quarterfinals of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 6-3 in favor of Nadal, who is 3-2 against the Italian on clay. Fognini, however, has won three of their last five encounters dating back to last February and he beat Nadal 6-4, 7-6(6) in the third round of this Barcelona tournament in 2015. After a stunning comeback from two sets down by Fognini at the U.S. Open last summer, Nadal prevailed 7-5, 6-3 in the Beijing semifinals.

Looking to build on momentum from his ninth Monte-Carlo title, Nadal has not lost more than three games in any of four sets so far in Barcelona. The world No. 5 took care of fellow Spaniard Marcel Granollers in the second round before easing past another compatriot, Albert Montanes, on Thursday. Fognini also earned an opening bye as the 12th seed and he followed that up with victories over Mikhail Youzhny (3-6, 6-0, 6-1) and Viktor Troicki (6-3, 6-2). He is still just 5-5 for what has been an injury-plagued season and 3-5 in his last eight matches. This is a much-improved Nadal from what was on display last year in Barcelona and he certainly will not lack confidence or motivation heading into this one.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(6) Benoit Paire vs. Malek Jaziri

Not too much unlike his entire career, Paire’s 2016 campaign has been a roller-coaster. The Frenchman opened with a semifinal performance in Chennai, went on a four-match losing streak soon thereafter, reached another semifinal in Marseille, and then lost five of his next six matches. Paire played well last week in Monte-Carlo to reach the third round, but he failed to maintain a set and double-break lead over Andy Murray and fell 2-6, 7-5, 7-5. Seeded sixth in Barcelona, Paire has bounced back with straight-set defeats of Teymuraz Gabashvili and Pablo Cuevas.
Paire 2
Up next for the world No. 22 is a first-ever meeting with Jaziri. The 76th-ranked Tunisian has benefited from playing in a section of the draw vacated by Richard Gasquet, who withdrew due to injury. Jaziri ousted Hyeon Chung, got past lucky loser Renzo Olivo in three sets, and upset Alexander Zverev 7-6(5), 6-4 on Thursday. He is through to just his fifth career ATP quarterfinal and second at the 500-point level (got crushed by Philipp Kohlschreiber at the 2014 Dubai event). Paire not only has the edge in experience but is also playing with confidence again, so this may end up being one-way traffic.

Pick: Paire in 2

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104 Comments on Barcelona QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Fognini, Paire vs. Jaziri

  6. I have been going back and forth with Rafa beating Fog in 2 or 3 sets. But I have decided that since the real Rafa is back and will be in the house, I am picking him for the win in 2 sets.

    The unpredictable Paire in 3 sets.

    Reply

  7. Rafa Nadal in 2… haven’t seen him play this well and confident in a very very long time..

    Jaziri… paire might beat himself

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  14. Kei v Benoit semi – yessss

    h2h 2-2. Paire won their last 2 matches – 2015 Tokyo and the US Open 5 set heart-breaker loss for Kei.

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  15. Do Paire did it. You never know with him.

    It’s great to know that rafa can move up to #2 in the race with a win today.

    I want Rafa to put Fog in his place! Let’s do this Rafa!

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  16. You can already see the difference in the early going here. Rafa is playing do much more aggressive here.

    Rafa gets the early break!

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  17. Rafa has come out and taken control of this match early. Whatever belief Fog had from those three wins last year, will be taken away by Rafa.

    He doesn’t want to give Fog any breathing room.

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  31. Integral for Rafa to keep good length on his backhand CC ….because Fog is always looking for that forehand DTL of his and he hits that pretty well and aggressively..

    0-30! Go for the win here now!!

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  42. It’s unreal that Rafa wasn’t able to deal with those drop shots.

    You cannot throw away a chance to close it out at 0-40.

    TB now. This is making me crazy!

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  46. YESSSSSSSSSS! Rafa has finally become very strong mentally! He just does not give in now and is so eager to crush his opponents. Also, his movement is more explosive now and he is physically strong. He looked so fresh even though Fog made him run so much.

    Two more wins needed, and he will be very much on track..

    Reply

    • couldn’t watch. what is it with all the squandered break points again??
      also foggy only had 3 but got all 3, the old rafa was a. great at taking break points and b. utterly brilliant at defending them..in fact his game was far too bound up with his mental strength in defending break points and raising his game at those moments.

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      • yeah…..will all come together….converting break points more efficiently and being more steady on service games is what we need….

        His forehand and backhand are improving with every passing match. He is also using his backhand DTL well. I am confident about his return games now… returning with good length and creating so many BP opportunities. The serve MUST improve.

        In my view, Rafa is well on his way to reaching the point where every match he plays on clay is on his racket. Yes, including his matches vs Novak Djokovic. Again, he is not quite there yet but he is well ON TRACK.He just needs a firm strong platform going into RG… we know he can shift into another gear there.

        The fear factorin the locker room is coming back too. Monfils confirmed that and so did Stan in his interview couple of days ago.

        I feel team Nadal must be really happy at the moment and they can’t wait for Rafa to play his next matches. Remember that at the end of 2015, they were happy and said that the main aim is to make sure Rafa peaks aroun RG! They must be feeling really good about their progress towards achieving that goal!

        AO was an unlucky moment for Rafa. It is not what they expected. However, the fact that Rafa has been able to move on from it and is not looking back at all now, says a lot about his renewed passion and mental fortitude.

        Rafa must be DYING to prove his doubters wrong.

        Anyway, as he says, the focus for now is to be ready for the next match 🙂

        Win Barcelona, Rafa! This is a must win for me!

        #ConsolidationTime

        Reply

        • thanks for that vr. always great to hear your opinions and analysis. i too feel the fear factor is coming back as foggy was making negative noises about playing him. he really needs that to work again for him as i still worry for him in the early rounds of rg. remember 2013 rg when he was nervous and off the early rounds and could have lost matches if the players had had self-belief…including the one against the ubiquitous fog. that man seems to show up everywhere!! given the problems in the preceding slams is still going to be very dangerous for him and i really hope he gets a good draw early on and also that nole is on the other side of the draw.
          onwards and upwards!

          Reply

          • Agreed Amy… Remember the scares against Daniel Brands and Martin Klizan in the first two rounds of RG 2013 …..Fog did not win a set in RG 2013 against Rafa but yeah that was such a frustrating match…Rafa was a pack of nerves. He shifted gears pretty quickly though once he faced Stan and Nishi in the following matches…

            But you are right, Rafa was expected to tear through the RG draw in 2013 and the struggles in those early rounds were NOT expected. So, anything can happen.

            For now, just hoping for him to win as many matches as possible so that he is ready to face those tricky situations.

            Looks like Kohls will be his next opponent. More good practice coming up! Kohls is a nice ball striker and hits pretty flat too…

          • ANother very satisfying aspect is the quality of opponents that are coming his way. It is not that he is building a fake wall of confidence around him by beating lower ranked, weak players. Wins over thiem, stan, Muzz, red-hot Gael, his rival THE FOG…. now Kohls and then most likely Nishi! Good stuff! I am very excited for the upcoming matches.

            Expecting Rafa to win Barcelona without losing a set.
            Yes, I might be having high expectations but I believe it is time we start expecting more from the king of clay.

          • yes i remember the struggles with brand and klizan as well vr. of course my point about foggy was that i do remember that rafa didnt lose a set but that was largely to do with fog having no self-belief. he could have caused huge trouble. and that was 2013 when rafa was tearing up the field! there is no question that nerves will be a problem and i am just praying he gets an easy draw the first few rounds. after that he can step on the gas.
            kohls will be a tough match up next although i expect him to win

          • yes agreed also vr that he is showing he can beat everyone except you know who. that is the question, as they say..
            that is going to be very tough because of the number of consecutive sets rafa has lost to him and the fact that nole brings his very best against rafa.

      • Amy,

        I am concerned about it, too. Rafa is still giving back breaks too often. But I think this is still a process. His serve is still problematic, especially that second serve.

        But I do think things are coming together. Rafa is not struggling the way he used to against lower level players. He now has the opportunity to have back-to-back great tournaments and another title.

        He does need to win this tournament to keep up the confidence and good feelings for Madrid and rome. The competition will be tougher there, but Rafa will have a nice run behind him to give him good feelings and belief.

        Novak is still an obstacle. Rafa needs to be serving better and holding service breaks. Rafa also has the mental challenge of having lost so many matches to him.

        Reply

        • Nice assessment NNY. I feel the same way, I still see a few critical deficiencies in Rafa’s game. His second serve is woeful a times and so are his returns on second serves, they are really meek, i hate that that is why most times he is not able to capitalise on those break point chances….Rafa needs to be way more aggressive on second serves!!

          Otherwise all well and good, I hoe he wins this tourney and my expectations for him I must admit are kinda starting to grow…..lol!!!

          Vamos, Rafa!!!

          Reply

  52. And how lovely a feeling it must be for Rafa to beat Fog in the tournament where he lost to him last year in straight sets 🙂

    Vamos Rafa!

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  53. I’m glad the Dog is out because he can be on fire at times and that can be difficult to handle. I am comfortable with the players left in the draw from Rafa’s perspective.

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  54. I think this is totally on rafa’s racket. Kohls is a solid ball striker who will give Rafa rhythm and a decent match. Rafa knows exactly what to expect from him.

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  56. As much frustrating it is to have Rafa failing to convert those numerous break points, one must admit that Fog went with some extraordinary winners at those key moments. Fog went for broke thus making so many errors but hitting insane winners at the same time! This match was good for Rafa: he wins in straights, he was strong mentally and he was aggressive when mattered. Love Rafa’s footwork! Fog is fast but Rafa was faster and smarter! What I see as an issue for Rafa is those drop shots! He must read his opponents better in that regard…

    Bravo Rafa! You are definitely on the right track!

    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

    • Those drop shots were insane…..lol……even Rafa was irritated at one point! Drop shots will always be Rafa’s undoing bcos he loves camping out in the bleachers!!!

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  58. Rafa still has mental demons to deal with, ie those who had beaten him a few times last year, namely Fog and Djoko.

    I could see that Rafa was showing too much respect for Fog, knowing what Fog was capable of doing. Rafa had his usual lapses during a match these days, giving Fog a lifeline to fight back, making the scoreline in set 2 very close; Rafa almost lost the second set.

    I do feel Rafa has to learn to be aggressive from the get go esp against formidable opponents, if not he really has a hard time giving chase in order to win his matches; he’s making life more difficult for himself by being tentative.

    He and we know for sure that his opponents would play aggressive tennis to try and blow Rafa off the court in order to beat him, – Thiem, Murray, Monfils, Fog and Novak – all of them play(ed) aggressive tennis against Rafa, so Rafa has to take things into his own hands instead of letting them dictate play. I do hope that 2013 NAHC swing aggressive Rafa appears very soon.

    Hope Rafa wins Barcelona for his 9th title at the same 500 event, to complete the feat of winning at least 9 titles at a slam, at a Masters and at a 500 event.

    Reply

    • +1
      I agree totally with your assessment. I think the biggest mental block is against Djoker but Rafa know he can beat him he’s done it 23 times so he should draw on that and we all now know that Djoker is not unbeatable.

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  59. Fog was engaging in gamesmanship big time. All that business about his shoulder and a few rubs from the physio was all he needed, if only recovery from shoulder pain were that simple, I could use some of it.

    In Rio last year, both Fog and Bernardes contributed to Rafa losing the match having taken the 1st set 6:1. Fog was engaging in various antics and Bernardes was positively obstructive in always calling close calls against Rafa and worst of all making him change his shorts on court. Rafa was also suffering from fatigue having played into the early hours of the morning and playing Fog less than 24 hours later, not to talk of the humidity.

    Yesterday, after losing the 1st set, Fog stood in full view talking to his coach and all the Barry Milne said was coach and player chatting. Had that been Rafa, all hell would have broken loose that he was being coached. Toni can’t even say Vamos without Rafa getting a code violation warning.

    Reply

    • ^^^ With you 100% Nadline. As far back as I can remember bias against Rafa has existed. Problem is Rafa’s habitual overtime when serving leaves him exposed to untimely interventions at critical moments and what can seem like vindictave decisions from chair umpires – unless it’s Lahyani of course.

      There are a lot of comments above discussing Rafa’s habit of letting opponents back into the match and problems with converting break points. This is nothing new. For years it was almost a given he would win the first set, struggle in the second set, then roar back to win late in the third. The difference now is we don’t have the same confidence he will do it.

      But most Rafans are in agreement he is closer now to his old form than we have seen for over two years.

      Onwards and upwards

      Reply

  60. Rafa’s on-court interview (translated into English by Genny):

    Alex asks Rafa how difficult is to play a player like Fabio who has BH, FH, DS, change of rhythm… Rafa says that Fabio has all that & in addition is super fast. He looks like he’s stopped/walking & all of a sudden he can reach any position on court. Besides all this, what happens with him is that you’re dominating the point but, as he’s so fast & with fast hands, you’re under pressure all the time ’cause you feel he can change the dynamics of the point at any time. Anyway, Rafa says he was playing very, very well & it’s been a pity not being able to consolidate for 3-0. He’s played a very bad game. He’d played very well till 40-15, but then till being broken he’s played badly. After that, Fabio’s started to play well & on top of that, he acknowledges to have wasted a few chances in next to games (at 40-15 & then 15-40). Fortunately, he’s been able to break back at *5-4, although again *5-6, 0-40 he couldn’t convert any of MP. Rafa’s asked how do you recover from being up 6-2, *2-0, playing really well & then after failing a couple of FHs, you see that the opponent starts to play a perfect tennis to the point of complicating the set & almost having to go to a 3rd set. Rafa says that, honestly, if that had happened last year, it’d have been, not a drama, but surely an attack of nerves. This year things are different. He’s accepting all the situations better, without feeling those continuing nerves. He knows Fabio can change the dynamics at any time & that’s why he was annoyed for not having consolidated for 3-0 & set a distance. He’s aware Fabio’s a player who plays by “feelings” & the match can change at any moment, as it indeed happened. So, he accepted the situation & kept fighting ’cause in the same way Fabio’s able to play unbelievable at times, there are also other moments where he makes errors & thus he had to be there to try to take advantage of the opportunity if it came. Finally, Alex asks Rafa if he finally went to the cinema yesterday. Rafa says he did. He went to watch “London has fallen”. Alex asks him if he liked it & Rafa says it was OK. He spent one hour & half quiet & calm, as it was the kind of movies that don’t make you think too much [smiles].

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxEIT7cveWQ

    Reply

    • Good stuff!

      Like I said, he is not far away. Mentally, he is very strong again. He still has those hiccups and we need to get rid of them. I won’t say he still faces those ‘demons’ or anything.

      He was up 2-0 40-15 and had a forehand CC lined up…He missed it wide and then the whole game was bad and Fabio hit a good winner to win the game.

      It was a matter of just ONE point.. should have been 3-0… Anyway, it can’t all happen all of a sudden. He has come a long way and there are only a few things which he needs to take care of now.

      Additional time to hit returns makes his ROS so much better on clay..he can change his grip , hit lots of forehands and take bigger swings which he likes.

      Go for more across-the-body follow through forehands , Rafa. Just like you do in practice….

      Reply

      • I commented above that Rafa has not always been consistent but his fans had the luxury of knowing he was more likely than not to find the way to win the match. What I forgot to say is since the crisis in his confidence his UE count has soared. Even more crucial is those errors are still happening on key points.
        If he is to beat Djokovic he cannot afford to give him so many opportunities and hope to get away with it.

        Reply

  61. Why does Rafa give Fognini so much respect? If he was that good, he would have made the top 10 by now; as far as I know he’s never even made the top 15. Yes any of the players can beat anyone on a given day but Rafa should remember who he is i.e. one of the greatest players of all time.

    Reply

  63. Nice hold from Rafa coming back from 0-30 in that first service game.

    Kohls has come out aggressive. No surprise there.

    Reply

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