Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Berdych

Roger Federer is one win away from another trip to the Australian Open semifinals. Standing in his way on Tuesday is familiar foe Tomas Berdych, who has already faced the Swiss six times in Grand Slam competition.

Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych will be squaring off for the 22nd time in their careers when they clash in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open on Tuesday. Federer is leading the head-to-head series 15-6, including 4-2 in Grand Slams. Somewhat surprisingly, they have not faced each other in a major since the 2012 U.S. Open, where Berdych prevailed 7-6(1), 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. Both of their previous Melbourne showdowns have gone Federer’s way; 6-4, 7-6(7), 6-3 in 2008 and 4-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4, 6-2 in 2009.

“I have to play well,” the 34-year-old Swiss assured after destroying David Goffin during fourth-round action on Sunday. “I think the court suits him. I think this sort of flatter bounce and faster court is good for his serves, good for his returns. It’s a fast court. It’s going to be a good match. We’re both going to play aggressive; this court pays off when you do play good and aggressive tennis.”
Fed1

Federer preceded his victory over Goffin by taking out Nikoloz Basilashvili, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Grigor Dimitrov. Only Dimitrov has stolen a set, and Federer quickly bounced back from that blemish to crush the Bulgarian 6-1, 6-4 in sets three and four.

Berdych bulldozed through the first eight sets of his fortnight in similar fashion, cruising past Yuki Bhambri and Mirza Basic before storming to a big lead against Nick Kyrgios. The Aussie eventually took that contest to four sets but never seriously threatened his favored opponent. But a real test is exactly what Berdych got in the last 16, as he had to go the distance to scrape past a red-hot Roberto Bautista Agut 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 1-6, 6-3.
Berdych 6

“It’s always difficult to say something else or something new,” the sixth-ranked Czech said when asked about going up against Federer. “I mean, it’s Roger.”

And it may be a loss for Berdych. Federer fell to Andreas Seppi in the third round last year, but that was an obvious aberration to the rule–and it was long before the 17-time slam champion raised his level in a major way the rest of the season. Prior to that setback, Federer had reached at least the semifinals of the Australian Open 11 straight times.

Pick: Federer in 4

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147 Comments on Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Berdych

  1. I picked fed to win in the bracket challenge. I still think that he will do it. But I think that Berdy will get a set off him.

  2. Fed’s forehand looks very good right now. Seven winners off that side. Barely any for Berdych yet surprisingly. I heard Roger got an early break against then got it back. ALLEZ Roger!!!!

  3. Berdy is truly being Birdbrain :-)..He has open court on rogers left to hit the volley and he hits it back to Roger.

    Both playing just okay..lot of errors leaking ..though both serving great.

    • I don’t agree. I think it’s been pretty even so far. UE’s are almost the same last time I checked. Around 12 or 13 each.

    • Agree with you Sanju. Tomas is really birdbrain there.

      Berdy didnt serve well, just 49% frst serve, still the set was so close, certainly not of high quality.

  4. Fed is playing sensational tennis. That backhand DTL earlier in the tiebreak and his serving has been superb. Whoa!! Sick pass from Berdych!! Gotta applaud that shot. Too good there from Tomas. Wow.

    • Fed sensational?? Its more like his serve is helping him out. Berdych OTOH couldnt get his first serve in, I mean 49% first serve vs Fed’s 70%? Yet the scorec is so close! I dont call that sensational, in fact both are not playing that well and Fed barely edged out a win in a tiebreak.

      Hardly playing better than 10 years ago!

      • I mean compared to earlier in the set. Like he has really stepped it up since start of the breaker. And what a pass to take the first break.

    • Not a fact but just your biased opinion. Just go back and watch Fed’s 2005-2006 matches and see for yourself.

      Stop harping the same old but wrong tune.

      • U gotta admit Fed’s forehand is fantastic right now. I mean he’s not hitting 90 mph inside out forehands like he could do back in the day but he’s playing pretty damn well. Very encouraging stuff from Roger. If he keeps up the level he has showcased for the past three or four games he has very good shot here imo. Most importantly he is super confident right now.

        • I didn’t even watch him back in the day anyways because I would’ve been in grade school lol. But the fact that he is playing at such a high level right now and at 34 is insane. He’s one of the contenders for the title without a doubt. I hope he keeps playing like this and gets this one done fast.

          • Benny,

            Have you watched Fed’s matches from 2005 to 2006? You should because he was extraordinary. Amazing foot speed and the most precise groundstrokes.

            He deserves credit for playing this well now, but he was even better back in the day.

        • Fed’s FH couldnt compare to that of 10 years ago, no where near and thats why he’s losing the FH battle vs Novak these days.

          Fed’s FH back then was laser sharp with its precision and everyone tried their best to avoid that FH. Why Rafa attacked Fed’s BH consistently? That’s because he knew he couldnt attack Fed’s FH, though Rafa’s BH at that time was like Rafa’s second FH (Fed’s description) and was at least able to hold his own vs Fed’s FH in a rally long enough to enable Rafa to find and exploit Fed’s BH.

      • Lucky,

        Agree 100%! I watched the 2005 AO semifinal with Fed and Safin. I could not believe how awesome Fef was back then. Safin was no slouch then and still had to play the match of his life to beat Fed and end his winning streak.

      • Public forum. You’re opinion is no more important than mine or anyone else.

        Your opinion was that berdy was too good to lose in straights. You probably thought he was playing fed from ten years ago.

  5. Berdy led by a break and tamely lost his serve. His first serve % is woeful today.

    Roger should loosen up now and mostly take this in straights.

  6. Fed looking very sharp and confident right now. That swinging volley was sick. And he’s throwing out a lot of aces out wide on the deuce side. Not a huge huge amount but he’s using that serve well and has hit six aces so far. I have a good feeling this match won’t keep me up tonight like stans match and Nole’s match lol.

    • I think that if Berdy was going to beat Fed then he needed to win the first set.

      Neither Fed or Berdy are doing great with second serve points win percentage. Fed at 40% and Berdy @ 42 %. But Berdy”s first serve percentage isn’t high enough at 54%.

  7. Berdych’s first serve % in first set was only at 49%, how to win when your opponent’s was at 70%? Had Berdych served better the first set might be his. Fed won 45 points vs Berdych’s 42 in set one!

    Berdych is poor at the net. He doesnt have the touch or the feel there, doesnt understand how to get into a better position when he’s there; really cant match Fed or Rafa or Murray there.

      • No, I never forsee he serves so badly this match. He was alright vs the others.

        I also thought he would stick to a game plan of blowing Fed off the court with a one two punch but he chooses to move to the net when he’s awful there. Poor game plan and poor serve that do him in.

        Fed wasnt great in set one, had Berdych won the first set with better serving (likely as he’s only 3 points behind Fed), he would be all confident going into the second set.

  8. Its insane how Fed gets it done against the one he is supposed to beat, especially at the majors. This ensures that he maintains a great ranking and faces the likes of Nole and Andy only in the latter stages of the tournaments. Rafa has to play so many small tournaments to earn the same number of points as Fed has done in this tournaments.
    And Fed is taking berdy to the cleaners. If kei manages to wear Nole down, we could have Fed take Djoko down

    • Cant compare them now. When in 2013, Rafa was doing better than what Fed is doing now and Fed at that time was doing poorly at the slams and not beating those that he should beat.

      Things could change though and sometimes quite quickly.

  9. Stats posted on ESPN

    Fed winners – 33
    Berdy winners – 20

    Fed UE’s – 22
    Berdy UE’s – 19

    1st serve points won

    Fed – 87%
    Berdy- 74%

    • The difference is in the winners. But this match has been decent quality. Fed is mentally stronger and had played that much better than Berdy.

  10. I thought the first set was close, but in the TB Fed raised his level in the TB.

    It’s true that Berdy’s first serve percentage was too low in the first set. But he still got it to a TB. From then on, it’s been all Fed.

  11. If Federer had been really hitting his FH, he would have been the 2 time defending champion at Wimbledon 2016 and defending champion at the USO 2016.

  12. Fed serving for the match now.

    Im disappointed by Berdych’s performance esp his serving. Berdych is moving further and further away from winning a slam when he couldnt even beat a 34 yo Fed. What hope he has vs a younger Novak?

    Well, has to congratulate Fed for getting it done in straight sets. If its Kei in the SF, Fed is going to reach the final.

    • I guess your opinion that berdy was too good to not win a set against this Fed was wrong.

      This Fed would beat ten year old fed and has a great chance to beat Nole in the semis.

      Just my opinion if that’s OK with you?

      • Yep I was wrong about Berdy because Berdy applied the wrong strategy – suicidal to rush the net vs Fed when its his own weakness. Fed is not Novak, Berdych should stay at baseline and tried blew Fed off the court. His poor serving was not helping him.

        Ten year old Fed? Sure!

        Its ok if its your opinion, not fact as you claimed.

    • This was a disappointing effort from Berdy. I thought he would get a set off Fed. But Fed seems very determined.

      I really wanted to see novak and kei, but can’t stay up.

      • Berdych didnt get it right, he’s pitching his weakness (net game) vs Fed’s strength.

        Berdych should watch some of Novak or Rafa vs Fed matches and see how they beat him – not by moving to the net but by hitting passing shots or lobs to overcome a net rushing Fed.

  13. Advise to Fed fans..2012 repeat all over again..Fed was great till qtrs..played some exceptional matches. Took Delpo down in straights in qtrs..Rafa like Novak now was not playing too well..his hand had some problem of skin peeling off and both Kei and Dimi took it to him. But come semi and everyone salivated at prospect of Fed taking Rafa down..did not happen..Rafa won again.

    Same goes for Fed vs Novak on Thursday if it happens. Fed can be great anywhere else..against Novak he has to take it to him. We all saw in the 3 GS finals played between them what happened. USO 2015 especially he should not have lost with some 23 break points.

    Let us see what happens

    • You are confusing the 2012 AO with the 2014 AO. It was at the 2014 AO that kei and diminish gave Rafa tough matches in the fourth round and the quarterfinals. That is when Rafa had the terrible blister. But his team found a solution so that he could feel the racket when he served and he beat fed in the semis.

      We thought it would be clear sailing in the final until Rafa had that freak back problem.

      • Well I mixed the 2. I meant to refer to 2012 AO only but mixed up the 4th and QF opponents of Rafa. Fed did demolish Delpo in 2012 QF and Rafa had a tough time with Berdych in QF which he won in 4. Most of the people were going on and on about how Fed will finally take down Rafa in the semi but it did not happen.

    • Which Fed fans have even commentated on this thread barring a couple? I doubt anyone is getting confident of his chances in the Semis. We’re happy to watch him play. He’s still the best of the era.

        • I get to decide what I want. Ain’t that what you guys do anyway? Maybe you should stop issuing sermons to imaginary Fed fans on the board who according to you have assumed that Roger will take the semis.

          • I always thought your understanding of tennis was imaginary and blinded by Fed.

            But don’t speak for other fine fedfans here like abhirf and Benny who have shown themselves to be quite real and knowledgable about tennis beyond just Fed and, by extension, Djokovic.

            Hope this helps.

            End of.

          • For you to accuse me of being obtuse is about as ironical as anything can get. In any case, I don’t recall asking for a certificate from you.

          • I didn’t say obtuse. That’s your word.

            As far as being certified, I’m just a friendly armchair doctor. Better to seek professional help.

            #FreudianSlipsAreEverywhere.

          • It is my word simply because I have a wider vocabulary unlike you and don’t need long-winded descriptions.
            Yes, if I need professional help, I shall contact you, seeing as you appear somewhat jobless.

          • Ah, fedfan, resorting to personal attacks when you’ve run out of arguments.

            I, like most tennis fans, can express opinions and respect others even when they disagree.

            Something that extreme fans of a single player and not fans of tennis on it’s own merit are sadly incapable.

            End of.

          • This is called misconstrusion or serious lack of understanding. No wonder you are always defensive because you interpret what is not written. Are you not always repeatedly calling him greatest of era, shows your insecurity 🙂

            I never ever said Fed fans are assuming he will take the semis. I just said don’t get hopes too high going by precedent of 2012 SF, 2014 SF and very recently 2015 Wimbledon final after that amazing SF against Murray.

            Yes the reaction of abhirf and Fedfan is a classic contrast. One(abhirf) responded exactly in response to what I wrote and the other(Fedfan) spat all over the place..haha

          • That’s because abhirf is a tennis fan in addition to being a fedfan. Fedfan is just that. A fedfan.

            No different than some Rafams to be fair.

            Speaks to their greatness. But doesn’t excuse their behaviour.

          • 1) Who got their hopes too high? If you’re going to accuse me of misconstruction you should give me anecdotes rather than banality.
            2) why do you have a problem with what I think of Fed in the context of tennis history? I haven’t asked you to conform with my assessment.

            3) Just because another Fed fan tolerates your nonsense doesn’t mean I have to. You are free to not engage with me.

            4) No one is getting their hopes up. Like I said, we just like watching him play.

            End of.

          • Nah, sanju appreciates tennis including Rafa.

            You just appreciate Fed as per your own moniker admission and posts here).

            end of.

      • No. Only if he wins another slam.

        Rafa is the defacto goat according to Nole, muzz and Agassi to name just a few.

        Hope this helps.

          • Then who according to you is GOAT. If you say Rafa who at the age of 29 not able to cross quarter final stage of a grand slam from last 5 slams. Just because he has a better h2h against Fed does not make him GOAT. For that he needs to win tournaments where there are other players as well not just Fed.
            Novak maybe if he continues to dominate like this and win slams and cross Fed and even if he doesn’t cross Fed still he can be as he has many more masters.
            Fed currently the leading grand slam holders and as long as he leads he could be considered GOAT.

          • Yes. He has. He’s said that Roger is not necessarily the GOAT.

            alpha26, I’m just a fan on a tennis site who’s opinion is that Rafa is the GOAT right now.

            I respect your opinion even if it differs from mine. There is a very good argument to support Roger as GOAT. I just disagree with it. Like Agassi for example.

          • Hawkeye culling out Nadal’s contemporaries rather than Federer’s to crown him ‘GOAT’ is the ultimate hallmark of intellectual dishonesty. All the players supporting Nadal’s case are either his contemporaries or defensive baseliners who were often overshadowed by the attackers in the previous eras(barring Agassi, who keeps oscillating from Sampras to Federer to Nadal and back).

            In any case, the fact that both hawkeye and sanju took an issue with what I think of Roger says more about them than it does about me or anyone else.

          • No he hasn’t. Sampras and Laver and even Roger for that matter believe you can only be the best of a given era. I believe Roger is the best of this era. You for some reason went beserk over it, as expected, and now I’m taking your case because it’s entertainment.

          • Where are the excuses? What are the excuses?

            If you did respect my opinion you wouldn’t be squealing all over the place trying to prove me ‘wrong’ especially given that I made a simple statement of my opinion without asking for your agreement with it. LOL.

          • Incidently, I love it when Djokovic beats Nadal, then calls him GOAT. It’s identical to what Nadal did. Amazing how much Djokovic has picked up. :p

          • Funny, he hasn’t used it against Fed after beating him in slams over and over again.

            Excuses as per your request:
            “defensive baseliners who were often overshadowed by the attackers in the previous eras(barring Agassi, who keeps oscillating from Sampras to Federer to Nadal and back).”

            And you think others have reading comprehension problems when you can’t even comprehend your own.

            This gets better by the minute. “Ironical” indeed. What are you, 110?

            No, please, do go on. I’m facinated.

          • How is that an excuse? I could line up a list of people with articles who think Fed is the GOAT. But that wasn’t my premise to begin with.

            It is a fact that Nadal’s case is typically supported by players of his kind.

            And here you go: http://www.firstpost.com/sports/roger-federer-is-greatest-of-all-times-says-former-no-1-and-djokovics-coach-boris-becker-2341880.html
            Since you like random quotations from players made at obscure points, to mask your obvious ignorance of the game.

          • Liar, now is it.

            Defensive desperation is everywhere lol.

            So you are now admitting that not everyone thinks Fed is GOAT.

            As far as Agassi, he said “I’d put Nadal number one, Federer number two.”

            Seems pretty cut and dry to me that

            Or is Agassi lying? Or just a baseline defender.

            LOL.

            Where oh where does it end?

            http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/tennis/rafaelnadal/10816170/Andre-Agassi-picks-Rafael-Nadal-ahead-of-Roger-Federer-as-tenniss-greatest-all-time-player.html

            End of.

          • Agassi is quoted as saying that “I’d put Nadal No. 1, Federer No. 2,” adding that “it’s just remarkable to me what he has done, and he has done it all during Federer’s prime.”

            “Nadal had to deal with Federer, [Novak] Djokovic, [Andy] Murray in the golden age of tennis,” said Agassi, himself a former world No. 1. “He has done what he has done, and he’s not done yet.”

            Keep it coming Fedfan, unless your job is too busy lol.

            But using ironical, am guessing you are retired.

            Downton Abbey called…

          • No I am just giving you quotes that support Roger. In the article I cited both Agassi and Sampras were leaning toward Roger. In a short space, Agassi, like I said oscillated yet again. In a few months time he will come out and proclaim Djokovic to be the greatest.

            Yes, unlike you my job is a busy one but given that it’s a public holiday where I live, I have plenty of time to douse your rubbish.

            In reality, most of the tennis watching community is pro-Fed. Hence the numbers that come out to support him.

            Also, I had already made that exception for Agassi when I wrote “everyone else” given the post I responded to.

          • Perhaps I should have used the 19th century term, excusical for which thou art more familiarical withical.

          • Yeah and like I said, Fed is the greatest of THIS era. You brought GOAT up.
            Basically you have nothing to argue here since you lost your marbles over an opinion and need to fall back on random ass quotes from players who keep changing stance to cover up his ignorance of tennis in general.
            End of.

          • Yeah and like I said, Fed is the greatest of THIS era. Sampras agrees Fed is the greatest of his era. You brought GOAT up.
            Basically you have nothing to argue here since you lost your marbles over an opinion and need to fall back on random ass quotes from players who keep changing stance to cover up your ignorance of tennis in general.
            End of.

  14. Hmm… I like the way Fed plays now, not totally baseline or S&V; a good mixure of baseline plus net game, an all court game.

    He knows when to move in and when to stay back. I think ONLY the top five guys have a chance against him on quicker courts.

    I feel he really can win this AO if Novak is below par.

        • Actually you are incorrect.

          Both 10 years ago and 2.5 years ago is correct.

          Not today.

          Your opinion that this Rafa and this Muzz can deal with this Fed is heartfelt and understandable, and I respect that, but it’s not based on recent performance by either.

          As I said 10 years ago and you’ve said 2.5 years ago, no question.

          Nothing that suggests that to be the case today, other than speculative nostalgia.

  15. @Sanju,I had already posted in the tournament pick/draw thread that Fed will make it to the SF and that’s where his road will end- against Novak. I’m still sticking by it.
    To beat the SERBINATOR at AO is no Djoke!!

    • I am supporting Fed over Novak abhirf. Though I am not rooting for either to win it all but that is what will most likely be the result.

      However in the semi, Fed all the way over Djoko. Nishi all the way over Fed.

      I am curious to see what Ljubicic will bring to the table against Novak.

      But Edberg was supposed to bring a lot to the table too in 2014 SF against Rafa and it was a straight set defeat for Roger.

      • Takes time to implement game changes, no.
        Best example is that of Nole & Boris.
        I’m still in awe of how good a player Nole has become on grass courts now which clearly took place after hiring Boris.

  16. Q. What would it mean to you to win one more major or maybe more, but in this era of Novak, if you were to get over the line one more time?
    ROGER FEDERER: I mean, a lot, yeah. It’s part of the reason why I guess I’m still playing. I feel like I’m competitive at the top. I can beat all the guys on tour. It’s nice now that in the last three slams that I’ve been as consistent as I have been.

    I’m playing good tennis, fun tennis for me anyway. I really enjoy being able to come to the net more like back in the day. So I’m very pleased.

    It would mean a lot to me, no doubt about it.

  17. Great from Roger to own up he possibly was wrong in commenting a bit harshly about Tomic

    Q. I’m not sure if you heard Bernard Tomic’s response to some of your comments. Colloquially to a lot of people it feels like a kid having a go at a great. Maybe not having a go, but being disrespectful. Do you feel disrespected?
    ROGER FEDERER: I said a lot of things in Brisbane, you know. I guess only a small part got taken out of it. It’s a bit out of context, in my opinion. Then you feed it to a player, he reacts, might be frustrated, and then he goes even further.

    You know, I’d like to see anybody succeed, you know, and anybody make their move. Especially to top 100 first, top 10, World No. 1. If everybody could be that, I wish that for everyone.

    To be quite honest, when I walked out of the press room I thought I was somewhat tough, but at the same time I was fair because I said nice things about him. But then I checked his ranking. I didn’t know his ranking was as high as it was, to be quite honest.

    I thought he was like 50 or 60 and he was top 20. That was my bad, to be honest. But I don’t check the rankings every day. I came from the off-season. I had no clue what was going on anymore. That was my bad.

    But I still believe it’s a big difference top 10 for a week or for a year or for multiple years, and getting there is not easy. It’s a lot of dedication, a lot of hard work. There’s a lot of guys who have the potential right now, not just him. That’s why I think it got brought up in many ways.

    It was, I thought, quite funny, because I knew what I said and I knew what I didn’t know then when I said it. It was kind of funny, I thought.

    • Listen up carefully, Nick Kyrgios..

      Roger Federer says:
      “But I still believe it’s a big difference top 10 for a week or for a year or for multiple years, and getting there is not easy. It’s a lot of dedication, a lot of hard work. There’s a lot of guys who have the potential right now, not just him. That’s why I think it got brought up in many ways.”

      Thanks for posting that, Sanju 🙂

  18. Congrats to Me who picked this Fed in three losing 13 games or less as predicted.

    Commies to those who picked Fed in four like Ricky or thought Berdych was too good to beat this Fed like Lucky.

    #Yesterday
    #TheBeatles
    #Hawkstradamus

  19. Hawks: Do you know why the Tennis Livescore site Definish.com is not featuring the AO at all? Have the ATP blocked them because they have updated their own livescore page?

    Just curious’

    • Hey ed.

      Have you checked during match play?

      Might just be that they don’t show completed matches in slams. Hasn’t been updated in two years so might be incompatible.

  20. If Djokovic wins against Fed it’s quite likely he will win the tournament and thus be in position to catch up to Sampras/Nadal at 14 major titles.On the other hand a loss will make that total seem very far away with time running out on his career.I’ll bet he’s very motivated to beat Fed.

      • Nole in three I think not.

        Hasn’t happened in last four slam matchups.

        Nole’s face looks drawn and tired.

        He said he never practised after the long Simon match. That speaks volumes.

        • If you heard what Novak said in his on court interview after he beat Nishi, then you would know that he decided not to practice to just clear his head after how poorly he played against Simon. It looks like it was a good decision considering how he played against Nishi.

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