Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nishikori

January 25, 2016 Ricky Match previews 129

Novak Djokovic will be eager to clean his game up as he heads into an Australian Open quarterfinal showdown against Kei Nishikori on Tuesday. Djokovic committed 100 unforced errors in his previous match against Gilles Simon but survived in five sets.

Novak Djokovic and Kei Nishikori will be facing each other for the eighth time in their careers when they battle for a semifinal spot at the Australian Open on Tuesday. Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 5-2, but the true story may not be as favorable for Nishikori as it looks on paper. The Japanese star once led the series 2-1 only to see Djokovic reel off four consecutive wins. Since losing to Nishikori in a 2014 U.S. Open semifinal stunner, the world No. 1 has scored victories on indoor hard courts (three times) and outdoor clay (once).

Their last three sets have been especially discouraging for Nishikori. Djokovic finished him off 6-1 in the third set of their 2015 Rome encounter and he cruised 6-1, 6-1 at the World Tour Finals last fall.
Djoker 1
Dominance, however, is not something that is on display right now for the Serb. Although this is one of his favorite tournaments, the five-time champion in Melbourne struggled throughout week one. His last two sets against Andreas Seppi were 7-5, 7-6(6) and he made an outrageous 100 unforced errors in a five-set defeat of Gilles Simon on Sunday. Djokovic preceded those wins by taking out Hyeon Chung and Quentin Halys in straight sets.

“It gives me great joy to know that I can’t get worse than that, than what I played today,” he said with a smile after scraping past Simon. “It doesn’t concern me for the next one.”

Nishikori has been in cruise control for the most part this fortnight. The world No. 7 has rolled over Philipp Kohlschreiber, Austin Krajicek, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, surrendering just one set to Garcia-Lopez along the way. Nishikori took an injury timeout for a wrist issue against the Spaniard, but he put any fears to rest by clobbering Tsonga 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 in the fourth round.

Arguably the two best double-handed backhands in the sport will be showcased in this one, but Djokovic has a clear edge in just about every other department–including history of success at this event. The top seed has lifted the trophy four times in the last five seasons and his only blemish during this stretch has come in a 2014 five-set quarterfinal thriller against Stan Wawrinka. Expect the favorite to treat Sunday’s aberration as a wake-up call and pick up the pace in a drastic, emphatic way.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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129 Comments on Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nishikori

  3. I will go against all odds and predict Nishi in 4?

    Of course if Nishi does not show up for this one leaving his game & confidence in the locker room, it can be a straight forward win for Novak. But I don’t think Nishi will let go that easily!

    If Nishi played the way he did in the earlier rounds he can trouble Novak who I expect definitely to raise his level but not yet to his top forme as this match comes too early…Nishi definitely has a chance if ever…

    Reply

  5. I think that Nishikori has the potential to win in 4 or 5, but Djokovic will more than likely raise his game and take it in 3 or 4 himself.

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  7. I think it’s going to be Novak in 3 or 4 sets. I think that Nishi is capable of taking a set off Novak. However, if Novak does raise his level of play, as I expect, then he could do it in straights. I do not see Nishi winning.

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    • No predictions. We know where a reasonable prediction would point so I am dropping that lol. Just hoping Nishi wins! Go Kei !! 😉

      Reply

          • Kind of agree. If in some crazy scenario Nole gets knocked out early, I think my next best bet to win would be Milos ….. Can’t believe Im saying this lol

          • Not in a slam final. Raonic would be way too nervous. He’s not gonna make final anyway. I think it’s pretty apparent that Murray is making final from bottom half unless a miracle happens.

          • Not necessarily, Benny. I know it was only Brisbane but Milos made it look easy winning over Fed.

            More importantly was last Indian Wells. Milos beat Rafa in the quarterfinal and lost to Fed in the semi but it was a close first set. I thought if Milos could take Fed to 3 sets in that match, he’d beat him. Also think Milos is ready to take it to Fed and stands a good chance if he can get one of the 1st three sets and take it to five.
            Let’s see how he does v LaMonf first.

      • vamosrafa,

        Really? You won’t even make a prediction? Then let me ask you this – do you really believe that Nishi has shot at beating Novak?

        Here is my take on it! Only if Novak has 100 UE’s again!

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        • lol..NNY, i probably did not make myself clear enough. I was saying that I don’t want to make a prediction for this one because if I make on, it will obviously be djokovic as literally every factor will play in his favor. Want Nishi to win this one badly so don’t wana think about Novak winning lol. desperate behavior but I just don’t want to see either of fed and djoko winning more slams…djo coming closer and closer to rafa !!

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          • don’t know hawkeye lol… I hope Mr. Don’t-you-or-do-you also does his part :p

            It’s a pity Stan is out. Extremely unlikely now that the winner will be anyone aside from Fed and nole

          • vr,

            I understand. I hope you know that I was just having a little fun with you.

            I am posting on my iPhone or my iPad. I had another procedure on my back this morning, so I am not supposed to sit at the computer today.

            I am with you all the way! Anyone but Novak or Fed!

          • Take care NNY.

            I do feel both Kei and Berdych can cause upsets. Berdych is playing very well and he’s familiar with Fed’s game and over five sets Berdych can do the damage. Once he can win a set or two he will have his chances of an upset and he’s too good not to win a set.

            If Novak cant raise his level high enough, and Kei is playing well enough then Kei can beat Novak, but he has to do it in 3 or 4 sets.

    • Lucky,

      Thanks for your kind words. Hey, I am still here chatting about tennis. Not much can keep me away.

      I like your confidence in berdy’s chances against Fed. I just worry about his mental strength. You know, the bird brain thing!

      Novak and Kei should be interesting.

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      • NNY, I mentioned on another thread that when I re-watched Rafa vs Raonic Abu Dhabi match, I noticed what a vast difference between then and now at AO R1.

        He was excellent in all dept at Abu Dhabi – serving great; returned great vs Raonic’s big serves by varying his return positions; hitting a flatter FH with deep penetrating shots, moving like a dream.

        All these talks about him slowing down in his footspeed really hold no water (except perhaps adjusting for age). The most important thing is timing his FH well which he did at Abu Dhabi. So, its all mental for him at AO, feeling tense, then hesitant, so he was slow in getting to good positions to do damage with his FH. He was hitting his flatter FH with authority in Ahu Dhabi but he was hitting loopy CC topspin FH vs Verdasco which were ineffective.

        I apologize to others here that I go off topic for this as I wish NNY could read about my thoughts on Rafa should she miss the other thread.

        Reply

        • Lucky gets it.

          When asked what Moya had added to his game, Milos replied “Calm”.

          Just what the doctor ordered.

          #BetweenTheEars

          Reply

    • Milos can beat Fed in a GS imo. And I do have a good reason to think it, but my post wouldn’t post. Cleared my cache and all that maybe it helps…

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  11. Hoping for kei to spring an upset or Nole to get a tough workout at least. I honestly do feel like Rogers chances have increased tremendously after Nole’s ugly win over Gilles. Fed is probably more confident in beating Novak than he was at start of tournament and Nole himself hasn’t looked too sharp. Problem for the rest of the field is that Nole can step it up later. I don’t think he’s gonna be like super good against kei but should play solid enough to get a relatively straightforward win in four sets. Kei could make it very interesting if he’s on and djokers off though. All I know is I’m a little more confident now in picking Roger to win the title here. I know he has to get by Berdych but I think fed will get through relatively easily in that one with a solid four set win. Birdman is never easy to play though. Still Roger is a relatively heavy favorite in that one.

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  12. Berdych is more confident vs Fed than vs Novak. He knows his big game can bother Fed but Novak’s defence is unbelievable so Berdych has fear or some mental scar (remember Beijing 2014 final?) Vs Novak.

    If Berdych can beat Fed, then I really hope for Kei to do his job and beat Novak. I really hope that Berdych can win a slam when Rafa is not there, time is running out for him.

    PS I was really pleased that Cilic won USO2014 esp when Rafa wasnt there.

    Reply

  14. Novak looking sharp. Its looking more and more gloomy for Kei.

    The top 2 or 3 really separate themselves from the rest with such wide gap in their level of play. Its just so hard to beat them esp in a slam.

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  15. I have a feeling Novak develops his sneak second serve down the T to counter Fed’s SABR on second serves. Smart tactics by Novak’s team.

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    • Fed hasn’t used SABR anyway. Said he hasn’t felt all that well on court yet to use it. He might do one for Courier like he said. :p

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  16. as I feared Nishi did not show up for this match…too bad as he could make it competitive if he was on…he really has potential but I think he does not have belief when Nole is on the opposite side…

    Novak playing ok nothing special though…but it is all he needs…this Kei is no threat to him spreading errors all over the place…

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  17. If Novak gets to the SF, I think he can beat Fed there. As good as Fed looks in his Berdych match, he’ll have a hard time vs Novak.

    Novak is simply so quick and so good with his returns. Even if his first serve is not landing in, he still has his SSS DTT to get out of trouble. He’s really hard to beat here.

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  18. Nishi has been really sloppy but Djokovic was anyway going to win. Brilliant finishing volley there from Novak. Great point throughout.

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  19. Kei can play some great points but he’s just so inconsistent. Hoping Roger doesn’t pull a Kei on Friday. Nothing to lose though.

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    • no, Fed will be a different animal out there, I am sure…Kei is just playing for the sake of it, it seems he really had no belief to start with that he could beat Nole…I don’t blame him though…Nole has created this invisibility aura and most of the players lose their matches before they even step on the court…

      Reply

    • Kei uses wrong tactics just like Berdych using wrong one vs Fed.

      I mean, how can Kei beat Novak by rallying with him? He should move forward and also take more risks hitting the lines (the side lines).

      Hope he takes the third set and makes the match more competitive.

      Reply

  22. Rafa must do something about his 2nd serve or he will not be able to beat Djokovic or even reach slams semis and finals consistently. Verdasco ATE his 2nd serve . It was painful…

    It is surprising how his second serve has not shown any significant improvement over the years. Only marginal. They should definitely get help on serving at least. I am sure he can fix it. He just cannot seem to accelerate enough on his 2nd serve to produce enough action on the ball. Those double faults against verdasco happened because he wanted to do something with the serve but just could not get enough action on it and the relatively flat ball just hit the net.

    Djokovic does not even have to be nervous on 2nd serves because he has a great one now. One of the best out there.

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    • His back issue is his problem. Ever since the AO2014, Rafa’s serve is never the same. Look at his USO2013 matches, no one could break his serve until the SF. His serve was great vs Novak in the final that year.

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    • Yeah, Rafa’ s serve poses no danger to even low ranked opponents and is forced to work hard for every point…now that Rafa’ lost in speed he cannot match the hard hitting opponents thus his impression on that “nee brand” of tennis…nole’s second serve and his amazing ROS do significant damage…
      Nice mindset of Nishi right now…he is showing some of his brilliance but too late for it now…

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  24. I remember how ugly and ineffective Djokovic’s slices used to be but he has massively improved those as well! Much better than they were in 2011. Good thing he does not really know how to use them effectively. But the technique, the execution is so much better now. His slices stay low as well.

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  31. Disappointing performance by Kei. Why all the flat BHDTL and so ended in the net? Cant he hit with more spin? He’s not Simon so cant hope to win in the rallies.

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  33. Going into rallies with Nole is a suicide attempt…totally wrong tactics to try to outhit Nole…
    Great win for Novak though while still not playing his best!

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  35. Looks like Raonic has the best chance vs this Novak with his big serve and net rushing game. Raonic is calm and cool too and looks determined.

    I think Fed will make more errors vs Novak and then loses the match.

    Reply

      • I prefer Fed winning to be honest. Even if Fed goes on to win this AO his 18th slam, I’m fine with that. He would have earned it.

        I just hope Rafa can get back to his great level and wins the FO again and then we can talk about how many more he can still win. Right now he’s not in the picture.

        I dont prefer Novak to win again as that will give him even more confidence to continue his almost unbeatable run.

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      • Fed all the way from this Rafa fan. novak needs to be stopped for 2 reasons:

        To puncture his confidence a bit so that he takes it easy 🙂

        The talk of Novak slam and calendar slam etc will be unbearable for 5 months..don’t want to put up with it 🙂

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      • Goodness me. I just woke up. Kei straight-setted. Poor Kei. Would have been happier seeing that he at least got a set. Don’t like Kei losing to anybody so meekly. Makes me appreciate Gilou even more, though. That’s the match of the tournament so far, for me. Most will say Raonic v Stan, I imagine.

        But congrats Nole! Sails into the semi.

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      • Nole for the win. Why should only rafa take all beatdowns from him?

        And also sort of makes up for the three consecutive slams that djoker stopped rafa in 2011

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    • Fed by far has the best chance against Nole vs any one else. For that matter, so does Serena.

      Pulling for Nole here. If Rafa can’t get his form back, I want Nole to do what the tennis establishment (read federazzi) prevented Rafa from doing.

      Nole is nine consecutive slam match wins away from becoming GOAT.

      Federer needs just two.

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  36. at the beginning of the AO I foresee Fed vs Novak semis and that’s what we get…It was not a rocket science though to expect such outcome…I really thought Nishi would be able to make a match of it (although honestly it was only a wishful thinking on my side when I said Nishi would win…never thought it would actually happen… :-))

    on the other side of the draw I expected to see Rafa vs Milos and then Rafa vs Murray…so far only Rafa let me down… 🙁

    Fed shall not rally with Nole as he always has the right tactics against Nole but lacks proper execution…I expect it to be MUCH MORE competitive than any of the quarterfinals matches…

    Serena and Nole can both make history this year…When Novak was up to do it in the RG 2011 Fed stopped him…will he do it again five years later remains to be seen…

    also Vika has a shot at Serena in the finals…let’s see how it all unfolds…

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  38. I think I am one of the few here who wishes Fed to beat Nole… 🙂

    and then to go out to Milos and Milos wins his first Slam!!!

    This does sound like one of the featured stories of the Anderson fairy tales, doesn’t it? 🙂

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  39. At least the 2nd pair of SFs should be more engrossing unless Andy is destracted by the imminent birth of the baby or Monfils does himself a serious injury indulging in his circus acrobatic routine.

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    • QF, not SF yet.

      If Raonic wins this AO, maybe he’s the one to usher in the ‘new’ brand of tennis – big serve, big hitting plus net rushing but not necessarily S&V.

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      • Not unless there is some change to the surfaces. The return tends to make the bigger difference today. Can’t see Raonic do to Murray, Djokovic or even Federer what he did to Wawrinka.

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        • Raonic has time on his side. He’s still improving and Rafa and Co will grow old and then slow down impeding their defensive abilities. I can’t see any up and comers as good as the big four to fend off Raonic’s assaults consistently.

          Raonic can still improve. He has the edge over the other giants because of his willingness to move forward to the net and he has improved his volleying and the timing to move forward. To me that makes up for the lack of great movement common among giants. Perhaps Raonic takes inspiration from his idol Sampras.

          I feel he’s an upgraded version of Sampras, taller and with larger wingspan and so he’s able to cover the net well making him very difficult to defend against (difficult to pass with passing shots and difficult to lob when he’s so tall).

          Reply

          • Well said (except for the part about Milos being an upgraded version of 14 time GS winner and one time GOAT Pete Sampras – which is laughable).

          • Sampras, who had eight slam titles and two finals and eight Masters titles at the same age as Milos who’s had one slam semifinal appearances and two Masters finals appearances.

          • Come on, I’m not talking about achievements here but the style of play. Must we wait until Raonic getting 15 slams then we compare their style of play??

            Sampras has the fast conditions that favor him; Raonic doesnt and if he can beat the likes of Murray and Djoko or Fed to win his first slam, that says something about his abilities.

            You dont have to pick on all these nitty gritties all the time, its getting very tedious.

          • No lucky, but one might help.

            And comparisons are obvious. Even Milos idolized Pete and admits to fashioning his game after Pete but upgrade simply doesn’t apply here.

            14 slams is not “nitty, gritty” but is the result of a superior tennis player on all levels.

            And I’m a big supporter of Milosh who I’ve always said will win slams, long before anyone else here.

            So chill.

          • Yes the size of course! Isn’t that obvious when every single soul on earth knows Raonic has won nothing major yet?

      • @ lucky 11:57 PM,

        I agree…Milos sure would fit the framework for the “new brand” of tennis…and in that case I would totally agree with Rafa that it’s the new way of doing things: big hitting, big serve and net rushing as lucky rightly pointed out, and what’s more important “the calm”… I am still amazed with attitude Milos had in that match with Stan and also in the Brisbane final… his “poker face” is really something… 🙂

        Reply

        • natashao2013 (AT 12:47 PM)
          —I would totally agree with Rafa…—
          ===
          .
          I don’t know which words you would agree with, but as for the words “new brand”, the author of the AFP article about Rafa (at AO2016) used the words “new brand,” not Rafa. 🙂
          The writer quoted 2 sentences from Rafa’s post-match interview and wrote that it’s the “new brand” of tennis that Rafa described.

          ¤¤ Question. “…Do you sense in these matches that players are playing more aggressively and more confidently against you than it used to be, or is it something that’s different on your side of the court?”
          RAFAEL NADAL: “The game is changing a little bit. Everybody now tries to hit all the balls. There is no balls that you can prepare the point, no? Everybody hit the ball hard and try to go for the winners in any position. Game become a little bit more crazy in this aspect.
          But the real thing is my mission is make them play with difficult positions. So if they want to go for lot of winners with very difficult positions, the chance of having success is not very high. If I let them hit from good positions and they obviously wants to go for winners, then the chances for success are much higher. So that’s the mistake for me today…” ¤¤

          Reply

        • Whoa, this looks like slow motion! Cant imagine they say the courts were quick back then, must be some poor technology in the shooting of the video.

          Sampras wasnt really a big hitter and the quicker conditions helped his big serves to be unreturnable almost. He’s not considered a power hitter, nobody calls him that I believe.

          The guys these days hit harder, putting in more spin, stays at the baseline more and net rushes only when necessary.

          Raonic fits the bill of power tennis and comes with big serve and net rushing abilities, throwing in some S&Vs even on slower courts.

          I should say he’s the updated version, not upgraded version of Sampras. Upgrade usually means a better version but I’m not sure he’s one and I dont mean he’s better than Sampras as they play in different conditions.

          Updated means updated for current conditions and usually with new things added, in this case some power tennis.

          Reply

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