Can Roger Federer Win the World Tour Finals?

The World Tour Finals seedings are set and the eight best tennis players in the world are turning their attention toward London for the year-end championship. It may not garner quite the publicity of any Grand Slam event, but the O2 finale is always a special time filled with exceptional tennis.

And at this year’s event, one question in particular will make the action particularly fascinating: can Roger Federer end the year with a title?

In a literal sense, this question certainly doesn’t need to be asked. Of course Federer can win; he’s the third-ranked player in the world and is wrapping up a sensational season in which he single-handedly altered our notions about aging in tennis. You’d be hard-pressed to find a tennis fan who doesn’t believe he’s still the second-best player in the world, even at age 34.

Nevertheless, Novak Djokovic–at the top of his game and six years Federer’s junior–has an extremely firm grip on the top spot. Is there any reason to believe Federer might reign supreme in London?

Going by recent results, as reported by BBC Sport, it’s difficult to say. Federer certainly looked like himself in ending a five-match losing streak to Rafael Nadal in the final of the Swiss Indoors Basel on Nov. 1. But it went to three sets even though Nadal hasn’t been in peak form this year. However, any time Federer beats his nemesis, folks take notice. It’s beyond doubt that Nadal is the Swiss’ toughest opponent from a mental standpoint and the win showed that Federer remains in fine form in all facets of the game even after the disappointment of losing the U.S. Open final to Djokovic.

One week later, though, the 17-time major champion was far less impressive at the BNP Paribas Masters. Federer followed up a bye with an easy defeat of Andreas Seppi in the second round and then lost surprisingly to John Isner in three sets. Isner’s always been capable of upsetting the world’s top players on his best serving days and on his favored courts, so this shouldn’t be particularly alarming to Federer fans.

What’s slightly worrisome, however, is that the Paris court is exactly the same as the one at O2 Arena. That means that Federer’s most recent result in similar conditions was not encouraging. Still, it’s likely we can attribute the loss in Paris to Federer’s focus on his hometown event the previous week, as well as to an outstanding performance by Isner.

Djokovic, as expected, went on to win the Paris title.

What this entire debate comes down to is a question no one really wants to ask prematurely: can Federer beat Djokovic in London? Both men have proven throughout 2015 that they’re superior to the rest of the field. Even though a tournament this packed with talent can certainly produce surprises, the odds will be strong that we’ll see a Federer-Djokovic match, either in the semifinals or final.

Naturally, such a pairing wouldn’t seem to bode well for Federer given that he lost to Djokovic in the final at both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open this year—both times after displaying absolutely incredible form in the semis. But a slightly closer look shows that we should expect something different at the O2.

Heading into the U.S. Open title match, there were only two occurrences in the past decade when these two met in which one triumphed over the other 3-0 in a five-set match, according to Bwin News. Furthermore, Federer hadn’t lost a hard-court match in straight sets since the 2014 U.S. Open (to Marin Cilic). That streak continued through this season’s final at Flushing Meadows, as Federer snagged a set before going down in four.

All of this indicates that while Djokovic has had a clear head-to-head advantage in five-set matches, it hasn’t been achieved with particularly lopsided scores. Federer almost always manages to earn at least one set, but he doesn’t seem likely to stay competitive for the duration of a five setter against the game’s best player.

In shorter, best-of-three matches like those played at the World Tour Finals, Federer’s ability to take one set against Djokovic becomes far more meaningful. The two men have played in four final matches in 2015 in best-of-three formats and Federer is 2-2 against the Serb, with the most recent contest going decisively to Federer at the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati.

Anything can happen in London, and there’s no question that Djokovic is the rightful favorite. But if the Wimbledon and U.S. Open finals have led you to doubt Federer’s chances, you may want to think again. Every indication is that the former world No. 1 will be prepared to give himself a great chance against Djokovic should the two meet at the O2 Arena.

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