Wimbledon R2 preview and pick: Nadal vs. Brown

Rafa4Rafael Nadal will be back in action at Wimbledon on Thursday with former Halle conqueror Dustin Brown on the other side of the net. Hasan Murad previews the second-round tussle.

It will be the second career meeting between Rafael Nadal and Dustin Brown when the two veterans take the court on Thursday at Wimbledon. The duo’s only previous meeting also took place on grass (second round of Halle in 2014), and astoundingly it was the current world No. 102 who swept Nadal away 6-4, 6-1 in less than an hour.

Nadal seemed to be in cruise control throughout his 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 opening-round victory against Thomas Bellucci on Tuesday, as the Spaniard struck 23 winners to roar into the second round.

Standing in his way is one of the two active players to have a winning record over the current world No. 10. Earning just his fourth win at Grand Slam level (third at Wimbledon) by overcoming Yen-Hsun Lu 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 6-4, Brown has made it past the first round of a major for only the third time in his career. Most notably, he beat former Wimbledon champion Lleyton Hewitt on his way to the last 32 at the All-England Club in 2013. Including his wins at the qualifying stages of Wimbledon, Brown has won six matches on grass this season–so he should be fairly comfortable on the green turf as he prepares to take on the two-time champion.

It is extremely difficult to predict how this match will pan out given the flashiness of Brown’s playing style. The big-serving German successfully shortened the rallies by approaching the net with great frequency against Nadal during their previous battle and judging by the high number of net approaches (winning 45 out of 73) in his opening match with Lu, he will attempt to replicate those winning patterns.

Nadal has been beaten in the second, first, and fourth rounds in the last three years, respectively, so his early-round matches at the Championships have proven to be quite ominous for the former world No.1. However, given the healthy state of his knees and better preparation on grass in 2015, he looks poised to overcome his mercurial opponent and snag his 41st career match win at Wimbledon.

Pick: Nadal in 4

[polldaddy poll=8958610]

140 Comments on Wimbledon R2 preview and pick: Nadal vs. Brown

    • true… but the thing about Brown is that he plays in such a haphazard way. In Halle, he was coming to the net on first serves, second serves, but also on almost all second serve and first serve returns! He was chipping, slicing first serve returns to rush to the net and sometimes taking proper swings. He was attacking 2nd serve returns a lot and when he is at the net, he is just blocking and blocking and doing all sorts of crazy things . He can hit good volleys too.

      It is good that Rafa has played him before, He will be ready. I hope rafa’s ROS is ready and that he serves really well.

      • Agreed. But none of this has been against top players near the top of their game. Brown’s poor record in slams speaks for itself. Rafa has not been his beet ofF clay since 2013 USO.

      • Yup… it is rafa’s unpredictability of late and what has happened to him over the last few years at Wimbledon that are the main causes of concern here. It should not be a problem otherwise…

  1. vamosrafa,

    Thanks again for another excellent match preview. I think your pick of Rafa in four is a reasonable one, given how well Brown has been playing and how good his game is on the grass. It’s true that he did beat Rafa at Halle, but that was a best two out of three set match. I like Rafa’s chances in a best of five set match.

    As you said, Brown is going to go to net quite a bit. It’s up to Rafa to have his passing shots working well in order to deal with it. I also hope to see Rafa doing some more net play of his own. I also feel that Rafa needs to serve better in this match.

    • well said! Best-of-5 sets is a very different story. Rafa will have more ‘colm’ and Brown will have less belief. Rafa must have his passing shots ready because he will be needing them a lot.

      Plus, slicing returns won’t be a good idea unless rafa gets them low enough because Brown rushes the net very often behind serves.

      Let’s hope rafa takes control early on and never let’s it go!

      • I noticed in the Bellucci match that Rafa was using the backhand slice on the grass again. I didn’t think Bellucci was playing all that well, so it was hard to judge if it was effective.

      • yeah… rafa uses the backhand slice more often on grass. Against bellucci, some of them were well struck but others were just floating. Rafa needs to make them more offensive. Offensive slices will really help him set up big forehands and backhands . He can hit good slices but not consistently enough. Fortunately , though, grass provices extra bite to slices so he can get away a little with some mediocre ones but we know the best of baseliners gain the upper hand with even one weak shot.

      • I was watching the Titanic battle of Rafa v. Juan Martín in the 4R from Wimbledon 2011 last night. (Anybody else remember that?)

        It wouldn’t be the first time Rafa had to deconstruct some big server with weapons.

        Though Brown’s unpredictability troubles me — he played like a genius that day in Halle, and I’ve seen him play sometimes and thought “How did he even get into this tournament?” — if Rafa plays his passing shots like he played them that day (and JMDP was killing it, too) he shouldn’t have too much trouble.

        (Also, was that match in Halle the first time they’d played? Obviously Rafa and the team are going to have a much better idea of what to expect this time around.)

      • Of course, that was such a high quality match…. Rafa’s inside out forehand was ON FIRE throughout. Despite Delpo’s forehand being a lot flatter, rafa was able to hit more significantly forehand winners in that match!

        @M, Delpo was very destructive but a lot more predictable..Brown is crazy!

        Yes, it was their first career meeting in Halle and I am glad rafa knows what to expect..

      • vamosrafa,

        Did it seem to you as though Rafa was hitting his backhand flatter on the grass in the match with Bellucci? He hit one great DTL backhand that looked like a bullet. It seems as though he hits his backhand flatter on grass. Comments?

      • Absolutely! he definitely does that. His backhand striking is a lot different on clay! You are right. Plus, the bounces are lower here and rafa is more comfortable flattening out those balls as compared to higher bouncing balls to his backhand….

        Rafa’s backhand is one of the best on grass in my opinion…

  2. Assuming Rafa and Troicki meet in the third round, I think that Ricky will want to avoid writing that match prediction. Would he really follow through with that upset prediction.

    VR you should offer to write up Murray or Federer’s third round match instead lol.

  3. hawkeye63 says:
    July 1, 2015 at 1:05 pm

    ‘Best not beet. Do they grow beets in Spain does anybody know? I like ’em roasted in the oven.’

    Yes, they do but Spanish people don’t tend to like them much so they’re mainly exported.
    In the old days – which I’m old enough to know about – it was grown for sugar.

    Incidentally, In tomorrow’s heat Rafa will make Brown sugar of his opponent 😉

    • is going to rain tomorrow morning and there will be showers in the afternoon….temperatures around 24C so a lot lower and more humid……

  4. One can only hope that the heat will take it out of Brown. The heat and facing Rafa can make it very tough!

    I would love to see Rafa win in straight sets tomorrow, but we will have to wait and see.

  5. I hope Rafa wins the first set as I expect he will then play with less anxiety…I really feel Rafa’s tension in the first sets these days…his game is whole different under the “first set pressure”…if that is dealt with, I do not see Rafa fearing and succumbing to Dustin’s annoying style…the guy seems to improvise not play tennis and it gets on my nerves TBH…

    again, love your writing VR…your prediction looks realistic, although I would prefer Rafa to get it done in three… 🙂

    Vamos Rafa!

    • ‘the guy seems to improvise not play tennis ‘ , well said!

      and thanks natashao ! I also hope rafa gets it done in three

    • I agree about Rafa being nervous in the first sets. I actually can sense it even in his body language. I end up getting nervous, too!

      I am not fond of Brown’s style and hope that Rafa is able to come out aggressive, serving well and dictating points. He has played him before, so no surprises here.

    • haha, this is good then 😛 Good that doubles matches are best of 5 sets at Wimby…this one was a 3 hrs 22 mins match played under intense heat…

      • any worries about change in weather vr? is going to rain tomorrow morning and there will be some light rain in early part of afternoon (if weathermen are to be believed) any talk of rain makes me worry about court getting slippery…temperatures will be a lot lower at 24/5 C although hotter of course on court (would think enough heat to dry court out quickly). hope it won’t be too humid as we know how rafa can sweat!

  6. Well if it’s not really hot then I think it might help Brown. I was hoping there would be another really hot day and that Rafa might take it out of him. Now I am not so sure with this latest weather forecast.

  7. Brad gilbert’s top shots of all time:

    forehand: fed, rafa, lendl
    backhand: agassi
    serve: pete, boris
    return: novak
    volley j-mac

    if there was a top passing shot then surely that would be rafa…..

    • Thanks for sharing this amy..

      As expected, rafa and roger have the best forehands. Lendl’s was quite scary in his time…old followers of tennis like NNY would know that well!

      Backhand , ok…agassi is a fine choice but novak’s backhand or nalbandian’s can be there..murray’s is also world class

      Return of serve, LOL….so gilbert also thinks novak has the best..

      • Best volley: J- mac…. he was a magician at the net …but Edberg, Rafter were phenonenally good volleyers too…

      • vr, you wouldn’t have pete then as one of three forehands??
        edberg’s volleys were sublime…i really like his game, great guy too, much more natural than fed…..

      • Yes, I am an old timer and have seen many greats over the decades. Absolutely Lendl deserves to be there! I think he gets forgotten in too many discussions. He invented the whole idea of a regimen for physical fitness and superior conditioning. He did have a lethal forehand. He was tough, because he had to be back then. The game was not as civilized as it is now. A lot of gamesmanship, even dirty tricks, craziness. It was quite the time!

        It’s true that Agassi had a great backhand, but I have to agree with vamosrafa in this instance. Nalby, Novak and Murray are all great.

        ROS? Need I say more! I absolutely agree about Novak!

        Volleyers? JMac is at the top of the list. He was brilliant, innately gifted. Edberg was also a great volleyer, same for Rafter.

      • Thanks for those inputs NNY…

        Lendl was such a destructive baseliner.. he would habe done quite well in today’s game too.

        Amy, pete had an awesome forehand ! People really underestimate how good he was from the baseline.. but I think the edge goes to lendl..

        But if you want to have a ranking for the best running forehands, pete’s will be right up there! Man that running cross court forehand is one of the most destructive shots ever!

        Regarding serve, i would have Isner! Why not?! Perhaps they also consider how clutch the serve is and how much that serve has carried a player in his carrier..but anyway, I think Karlovic has the best first serve ever and Isner the best second serve ever.. pete had an incredible combination of first and second serves but Isner excels in that department too…

        Becker was a spectacular server and I think Gilbert has used the criteria I mentioned above to rate him.he was very very clutch ! Plus, combination was pretty strong too.. but I think there are a handful of better servers
        ..

      • great to hear your thoughts guys! too nervous to reply now…waiting for brown’s skinny legs to fall off as mona predicted! (you had better be right mona…see i am holding you to account!)

  8. I actually think Brown may win this. Rafa looked pretty vulnerable in his first match in my opinion, but belluci lacked the belief and weapons to hurt him.

    Brown has confidence and weapons in abundance, and if he can get a set, and get the crowd behind him, and they WILL get behind him, then Rafa could be in trouble.

    What actually happens, who knows! Hard to call when Browns in town as you say. But it’s one not to miss regardless!

    • Ad,

      I am not dismissing what you say out of hand. It’s not out of the realm of possibility, given what has happened to Rafa at Wimbledon the last few years. I do agree that Bellucci did not have the game or the belief to challenge Rafa. He did not play that well, missed some big opportunities big time.

      As far as the crowd getting behind him, I am not so sure about that. Rafa now ranked #10 and having such a difficult year losing at RG in the quarterfinals, may garner a good deal of support. The crowd was clearly behind him in his first match. However, the crowd being with him or against him, will not matter in the end. It’s what is going on in Rafa’s mind. If he is mentally tough and can come out playing aggressive, serving well and forehand working well, then I think he will win. It’s a whole different thing to play Rafa in a best of five match, as opposed to a best two out of three set match.

      Of course, I will be watching and cheering Rafa on!

    • Yup… the possibility is definitely there.As NNY says, it will come down to how strong rafa is mentally. I agree he will have plenty of crowd support. Brown will try to turn the crowd in his favor but rafa will have a lot of support.

      Nobody gave Kyrgios a chance last year esp after rafa beat Rosol but kyrgios then beat Rafa in 4 sets. So, rafa is vulnerable but I think he will do well enough to avoid an upset here. Also, Brown is too flashy to topple rafa in best of 5… hoping for the best!

    • I for one believe you guys are giving Brown way too much mad props!!! I mean the guy beat Rafa once, big deal, where has be been all year?! This is best of five, Rafa is healthy and fit! This is Wimby, and Rafa is the hungriest he has ever been in this tourney since 2008, there is no way Brown is beating Rafa today…..I’ll be surprised if he will even takes a set!!!

      Vamos Rafa!!! Put the doubters and the naysayers in their place!!!!

  9. Ricky..do you ever support Rafa or think Rafa can do any good or is only your pessimism reserved for him? I have seldom seen u being gung ho about Rafa even 2011-2013..always backed Novak over him. The only time I have seen u back Rafa is when he plays Fed where 90% times you don’t give Fed any chance.

    • Surely the journos are asking him questions about it more often the last two years than before so he has to answer something. Also trust the dailymail to make more out of the smallest bit of substance in his answers.

      Even with all that you might be right.

  10. As per forecasts, heavy thundery showers are passing over me now (Seine Estuary) heading N/Westerly. The predictions are for thunderstorms to hit London area late afternoon/early evening. We need Federer to dispose of Querrey in double quick time.

  11. ed251137 says:
    July 2, 2015 at 8:36 am
    ‘….We need Federer to dispose of Querrey in double quick time.’

    Or the other way around 🙂

  12. ed251137 says:
    July 2, 2015 at 8:36 am

    ‘…We need Federer to dispose of Querrey in double quick time.’

    Or the other way around.

  13. Why are British players always referred to by their national ranking and everyone else by their world ranking whether they are playing at home or abroad?

    John Lloyd and Davenport are whining that Murray should have been put on CC as the committee knew it would rain, they should have protected him.

    • me neither vr…..sorry, that was why i was blithering on about the weather yesterday as i didn’t want that to happen….but the forecast is saying it should be clear later so presumably even if they closed the roof early they would open it later…
      don’t want rafa playing late under the roof….

      • not sure about that…..henman who is on the wimby committee is always going on about the fact that a slam should be played outdoors……..if they stick to that then they should open it…..

  14. The covers are off but the clouds are grey. I live about 40 miles of Wimbledon and it doesn’t look too good here and the weather is almost always the same as south London.

  15. where i am is west of london but nevertheless in the south east area. the rain has cleared here and it is hotting up (is pretty humid) and the sun should break through later….
    all the forecasts i have heard here are for rain to be hitting wimby in the early afternoon not the later with evening clear….

  16. have just had the expected early afternoon rain here and it’s still looking dodgy…i would imagine this is moving towards london….
    sun is in and it’s quite windy…..

  17. Btw, any ideas why they put this ladies match on CC? neither of them is very well knows, at least to me, nor are they from GB… don’t get it

  18. oh thx Nadline, I didn’t know Lisicki got to the final here.
    I’m not bothered at all about today’s match; Brown might clinch a set if Rafa is off but I don’t think we’ll see an upset here.

  19. Girls’ match nearly over. Roger’s match will finish around 5 pm, then it’s Rafa time.

    Pleasssssssssssssssse Rafa, just do it!

    #Vamos Rafa

  20. i hope fed doesn’t mysteriously play badly for the odd set or 2 thus ensuring rafito plays late under the roof….
    not that his-fair-playness would ever consider such a thing….
    (reports have it that he was seen with a carrier bag of 50 quid notes talking with the chair-umpire so i would imagine rafa might be disqualified for slow play anyway……)

  21. last wimby fed said there should only be 10 seconds between points…..
    even i-always-agree-with-rog henman said that this was a trifle unreasonable…..

      • thus ye speaks of the annointed one

        the deliverer of the Jewish nation as prophesied in the Old Testament

        we now have the minority in those who did not recognise him as the mashiah (and hence became an easy minority to scapegoat for the rest of time, sometimes called rastafarians, sorry, I mean rafans)…

        and those who did recognise him as the mashiah (and went on to proselytize to everyone ever since, usually called fedfans, sports journalists, commentators and those who lined their pockets called tournament organizers, media moguls)

        were he here among us these days surely he would roleth his eyes

        wait, he is here among us, and does not roleth his eyes, what is happening here?

    • Fed averaged eight seconds between serves in his first match.

      (He also thinks all slam matches should be played indoors and lefty topspins should be banned.)

  22. brown shrown, rain shrain, what has me worried is that the Duchess crushed Rafa’s hand

    at least it was only the serve tossing hand, not the one that grips the racket

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.




Skip to toolbar