French Open Day 3 picks: Dimitrov vs. Sock, Dolgopolov vs. Almagro

Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Steen Kirby of Tennis Atlantic preview and pick the four best men’s singles matches on Tuesday at the French Open. The schedule includes Grigor Dimitrov vs. Jack Sock and Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. Nicolas Almagro.

(10) Grigor Dimitrov vs. Jack Sock

Ricky: Their only previous encounter (Stockholm last fall) will not soon be forgotten, mainly because Dimitrov hit two absolutely ridiculous winners on back-to-back points. He eventually overcame Sock 5-7, 6-4, 6-3. This one should be similarly competitive even though Sock is an obvious underdog. The American may be coming off consecutive first-round losses in Rome and Nice, but he captured a title on the red clay of Houston and played relatively well in Madrid. Dimitrov is looking vulnerable, with a modest 18-10 record on the season. The Bulgarian was last seen getting bageled in the third set against Fabio Fognini in Rome. It just feels like this is Sock’s year–and that definitely is not the case for Dimitrov. Sock 7-6(7), 5-7, 2-6, 6-2, 6-4.

Steen: This is the best first-round matchup in my book. Sock has been excellent since returning from hip surgery and he won his first ATP title on clay in Houston. His forehand continues to be a lethal weapon, plus he’s added better fitness and a stronger mindset on court to go with that. Dimitrov has been a disappointment this year, but he’s still slightly more accomplished than Sock. Athough Sock is the second best American player on clay, I still see Dimitrov edging this out as his attributes are more complete. Dimitrov 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 5-7, 7-5.

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Nicolas Almagro vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov

Ricky: One of the best first-round matchups on paper, this one is even bigger because the winner will get a shot at Rafael Nadal on Thursday (and a shot at Nadal this time around in Paris means more than it did in the past). The head-to-head series stands at 2-2, with Almagro having won two of their three clay-court meetings. Both men are faring decently well in 2015 as they return from respective injuries. But Dolgopolov cannot be feeling confident after losing to Ernests Gulbis of all people last week in Nice. The Ukrainian is not bad on clay, but he would rather be facing Almagro on either a hard court or grass. Almagro 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-3, 6-4.

Steen: Expect talented shot-making in this match. Almagro is still working off rust from injury issues and he has yet to reach his former level. That said, he’s still a solid clay-court player with a good power game. Fitness would have to be a concern for him. Dolgopolov isn’t playing any worse right now than he was, but he’s still seen his ranking tumble and he remains as unpredictable as ever. He has all the shots, and on a fast surface I’d pick him to win this. But Almagro should have the edge on clay. Almagro 7-5, 2-6, 6-4, 6-3.

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Vasek Pospisil vs. Joao Sousa

Ricky: Pospisil cannot really catch a break these days. He was injured at the start of 2014, got a flurry a terrible draws to begin this season, and then he got hurt–again–in Madrid when he collided with Sock and sprained an ankle. The Canadian has not played since and he has not won a match since beating Juan Martin Del Potro in Miami. Clay will not help his chances against Sousa, who is coming off a runner-up performance in Geneva. The Portuguese player will have had two full days of rest, so he should have enough in the tank to make this more routine than it looks on paper. Sousa 6-2, 2-6, 6-1, 6-4.

Steen: Pospisil is sadly turning into a bit of a doubles specialist these days. His results have been poor this year and he’s not great on clay to begin with. Doubles has certainly helped Sock’s game, but I’m not sure it’s done the Canadian any favors. He seems to be lacking confidence and consistency in singles. Sousa is a passionate player who hits a heavy baseline ball. He’s perhaps slightly better on indoor surfaces than on clay, but all the same he’s no slouch on the surface. Given his momentum from reaching the Geneva final, I don’t expect him to have any struggles. Sousa 6-4, 6-3, 6-3.

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Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Victor Estrella Burgos

Ricky: This should be a baseline battle royale on the terre battue between two players separated by 11 years. Estrella Burgos is still in decent form, but he has cooled off since a hot February. He even got double-bageled by Roberto Bautista Agut after taking the first set against the Spaniard in Munich. Carreno Busta is no Bautista Agut (even though they both have three names), but the point is Estrella Burgos’ level right now is very up and down. Young legs will be the difference at the end of what should be a grueling five-setter. Carreno Busta 3-6, 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-2.

Steen: This is a classic clay-courters duel. Neither of these players is a world-beater, but it will still be a fun match to watch. PCB has struggled to be consistent this season, though he has had his moments. Estrella is an ageless wonder who should inspire us all, as he is now consistently competing in slam main draws at 34 after years of being a Challenger journeyman. He has a title on clay this year and a notable win over Main Cilic. I feel he should have more motivation and even with his age I wouldn’t worry too much about fatigue. Estrella Burgos 6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4.

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