Indian Wells final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Federer

And then there were two. The Indian Wells men’s singles title will come down to Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer on Sunday. Both are coming off convincing semifinal victories.

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 38th time in their careers when they collide in a second consecutive BNP Paribas Open final on Sunday afternoon.

After a relative drought of head-to-head meetings from the end of 2012 to the end of 2013, this will be their 10th encounter in the last 17 months. The stretch already includes one Indian Wells title match, in which Djokovic prevailed 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(3) last season. Federer, though, leads the overall series 20-17 and most recently scored a 6-3, 7-5 victory to lift the trophy in Dubai. The Swiss has won two in a row over Djokovic dating back to last fall and is 15-13 in the rivalry on hard courts.

Both men have been outstanding–and also somewhat fortunate–this fortnight. Djokovic’s run to the final included a quarterfinal walkover past Bernard Tomic, although it’s hard to imagine the top-ranked Serb would have been seriously troubled in that one. Djokovic has not dropped a set in wins at the expense of Marcos Bagahdatis, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, John Isner, and Andy Murray.

Djokovic warming up for his match
Federer appeared in be in line for a semifinal showdown against nemesis Rafael Nadal, but the Spaniard squandered three match points against Milos Raonic and lost 4-6, 7-6(10), 7-5. The big-serving Canadian was promptly disposed of 7-5, 6-4. Federer has also defeated Diego Schwartzman, Andreas Seppi, Jack Sock, and Tomas Berdych without even being pushed to a tiebreaker.

“I’m very happy (with) how well I’m playing,” the world No. 2 assured. “I’m serving well, which is always crucial. I played great in Dubai; great again this week.”
Fed 2
Unfortunately for Federer, he is not as dominant in the desert as he is in Dubai, where conditions suit him perfectly. A somewhat slow court in Indian Wells will help Djokovic turn the contest into more of a baseline war of attrition. Given the way the No. 1 seed is playing defense from the back of the court and turning it into offense, Federer will have trouble keeping points short. That being said, this should be another competitive three-setter.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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66 Comments on Indian Wells final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Federer

  1. Djokovic in 3..It all depends on Feds serving, if he serves well..he can push this to 3..else 2 sets Novak..slow high bounce court

  2. ^^ the court conditions would make it tough for federer to execute his ultra aggressive game plan. So advantage djokovic….

  3. I give slight advantage to Fed! He is bursting of confidence and is playing his very best tennis…Nole will be nervous as this win means equaling Fed’s record in IW so it’s not just another Master title…
    On different note: I am sure Rafa will not care about this match cause he has something more important to see…BTW the whole world will rather focus on Camp Nou to watch yet another El Clasico!

    Vamos Real Madrid!

  4. Let us not forget Fed has not won any match against Nole where stakes have been very high in past 4 years except RG 2011 semi and maybe Wimby 2012 semi ..For eg he lost Wimby Final 2015, IW 2014 final ..WTF 2012 final etc

    He has won more the semis and 500 finals

  5. From whatever little I saw of Feds matches, I dont see him as being better than ever.. He is def playing good..but has played far better than this. He is still making lot of UE

    IW courts are more conducive to hit passing shots than hit volley winners

    • this title is more important to Nole…he wants to revenge his latest loss to Fed and he wants to equal Fed’s record…and I would not think this match is at all comparable to Wimby 2015…it does not have such high importance to Fed…I also do not think Fed is playing better than at his golden times but he is playing different and by doing so he can do some damage…Nole has spent all his life developing around how to beat Rafa and Fed’s game simply does not suit him…

  6. Make a pick and number of sets then sanju.

    No one said Federer is playing better than he ever has even if he is.

    He’s hitting meeting more UEs because he has to go for lower margin shots against today’s better competition. To make my point by example Federer has always made a lot of UEs against Rafa.

    His game is more effective now. The game has improved over the last eight to ten years and so has Federer to stay at number two. I don’t believe a younger Federer would necessarily be number one today.

    He’s just as good if not better.

  7. Roger win would be better for Rafa and Rafa fans to dent Novaks confidence and keep him away from the Masters 1000 record. Novak has a real shot of catching Rafas 27

      • No I did not say that. Rafa may keep winning more but then Novak may win at a faster rate from here on than Rafa and I really want Rafa to have the Masters record

  8. I don’t approach this thinking who wins would be better for Rafa. I don’t think that is accurate at all. Rafa is his own man and can make his own destiny. He doesn’t need anyone to dent Novak’s confidence. For what it’s worth, I do not think a loss to Fed here will dent his confidence at all.

    Novak is serving better than ever. He was trading big first serves and aces in the third set tb with Isner. His average second serve speed was posted at 96 mph. He’s not double faulting in crucial moments now. This court is ideal for his game. He’s got a huge lead in points and right now is now in danger of relinquishing the #1 ranking.

    I think Novak will want to get the win after losing to Fed in Dubai. It’s a matter of pride. I don’t think players are focusing on records during a final. They want to win.

    Fed is playing very well and full of confidence. I expect a great match. I think Novak will win it in three sets.

  9. Sorry, typo in the second paragraph of my post @ 9:10 pm. I meant to say that Novak right now is NOT in danger of relinquishing the #1 ranking.

  10. Shanks are coming because Federer refusing to back up with Nole hitting deep.

    Fantastic gripping tennis from both.

    The bigger racquet allowing Federer to hit with significantly more power.

    Nole mentally very tough today. Didn’t expect it. First set more important to Federer.

    Federer won’t win in three.

  11. Nole extremely focused and so determined to win…he is doing his all and it pays off…I knew this would be important to him but expected him to be a bit nervous…i was wrong though…both are playing great tennis…

  12. Break Nole!

    Pro Fed crowd growing quieter now.

    And the who’s from Whoville will all cry boo hoo boo.

    Marian Vajda will be happy.

    Looks like a mental drop from Nole is going to hand the break back.

    Could be the mental letdown I predicted?

  13. Am not sure what great, gripping tennis you folks are seeing. I feel this has been one of the poorer contests from both, there have been many better ones both in quality and drama….Lots of UE,… not too many pulsating rallies..

    • Novak Chokovic.

      Not Dubai my ass. Never said it was. I said the difference would be between the ears and it looks like I was right.

      Come on Nole. Don’t let the federazzi crowd get you down.

  14. 3 DB by Novak in TB

    A Forehand smash miss by Fed, a simple sitting winner put out by Federer in the TB

    This is definately not great tennis 🙂

  15. C’mon Sanju…you obviously do not know how to enjoy tennis…the speed, the movement, the drama…it’s great…I like when someone other than Rafa has to endure long rallies and give it his all on the court,.. I am fed up with one-sided anything but competitive matches…

    • What I am just saying is that this match is not the best these 2 have served against each other. There are too many UEs and costly errors and pedestrian errors..maybe its the nerves..if a TB has 3 DF and 3 silly UE..it def is not a great quality 🙂

      I am enjoying the match btw 🙂

  16. More errors due to extremely aggressive game from both.

    Level has definitely dropped from Djokovic which is really too bad. Crowd sucks.

    Was an amazing match to that point.

  17. Well done Nole. Looked more like relief than joy at the end.

    Nole’s solid play in the first set made the difference. Poor third set. Quality really dropped. First set was amazing. Love watching this matchup though. Federer only stands a chance when Nole’s confidence wavers. Fed ran out of juice in the third and Nole did just enough to hold on.

  18. Congratulations to me! I got it right, Novak in three sets!

    It was a fun match to watch. I think Fed did well to come back and win the second set tb, with a lot of help from Novak. You don’t often see him giving back-to-back double faults! But he regrouped nicely and came out playing well in the third set.

  19. Novak will pass Roger for Masters titles this year and Rafa next year. Did anybody catch that abomination of a WTA final? I swear they should never combine men’s and women’s events. EVER!

  20. I agree that the women’s final was awful. At one point they showed the UE’s for both players and I think it was a combined total of about 80! Something really outrageous! To me it was everything that’s wrong with women’s tennis these days. It was like who would be the last to get the break and finally win the match.

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