For one, we already know that bad news for Marin Cilic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is good news for a whole host of other competitors.
Ernests Gulbis and Feliciano Lopez stole top 12 seeds as a result of those two withdrawals. That means they would run into a 5-8 seed in the fourth round instead of someone like Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, or Rafael Nadal. Tommy Robredo and Fabio Fognini are top 16 seeds thanks to Cilic and Tsonga. Ivo Karlovic and Richard Gasquet are into the all-important top 24, meaning they won’t have to play a top 8 player in the third round. Fernando Verdasco and Martin Klizan, who otherwise would have been unseeded, are part of the elite 32.
What will be especially interesting come Friday will be placement of dangerous unseeded floaters. Yes, Juan Martin Del Potro in the first round could face Djokovic…or Federer…or Nadal.
Let’s take a look at a scary list:
Juan Martin Del Potro – Del Potro, of course, is unseeded as a result of missing almost all of last season due to wrist surgery. Now ranked 338th in the world, the Argentine provided reason for optimism by winning the first two matches of his comeback event in Sydney.
Nick Kyrgios – Kyrgios’ second-half surge in 2014 (Wimbledon quarterfinals, U.S. Open third round) were not enough to get him into seeded position at the start of this year. The 19-year-old Aussie undeniably has the talent to take out top players (just ask Nadal), but an arm injury could prevent him from doing so Down Under.
Vasek Pospisil – Perhaps best known for winning the 2014 Wimbledon doubles title with Jack Sock, Pospisil is obviously a singles player by trade and he would be ranked much higher than No. 55 if not for a back injury early last year. The Canadian played well at the Hopman Cup and a quick loss in Sydney may be a blessing in disguise, as he will be well-rested for the Happy Slam.
Bernard Tomic – Don’t sleep on this Aussie, who has been suddenly overshadowed by his countryman Kyrgios. Tomic is healthy again and he always plays his best at home. A two-time semifinalist in Sydney, Tomic also reached the fourth round of the Australian Open in 2012.
Viktor Troicki – Troicki was ranked as low as No. 847 in the world as recently as July 27 of last summer. His comeback from suspension, though, has been an incredible one and he will be at least into the top 90 when the upcoming major begins. The Serb has maintained momentum this week with two wins so far in Sydney.
Also take note of an American contingent that is without Jack Sock but could still be formidable. Sam Querrey is likely to miss out on a seed by just one ranking spot, Steve Johnson came close to getting seeded and is currently faring well in Auckland, and Donald Young advanced to the Auckland quarters.
“Yes, Juan Martin Del Potro in the first round could face Djokovic…or Federer…or Nadal.”
Won’t happen. DEFINITELY won’t happen. Could very well happen.
(Fed will get a qualifier or Roddick.).
Very insightful on the Top 12/24. I didn’t realize (or maybe forgot) those specifics.
I will have to revisit my draw predictions prior to tonight’s draw (6:30 EDT).
Not obvious as to what half Rafa will fall in as stanislaw matches up so well against Djokovic.
#First
FINAL PREDICTIONS (subject to change without notice):
1st of all, mostly (if not all) night matches for Fed (other than final) and day matches for Nole.
Fed’s half to play before Nole’s half (goes without saying).
Hawkeye’sy 2015 AO Rigged Picks:
Rafa’s 1/4: Del Potro, Kyrgios, Isner (or Monfils), Anderson, Ferru, Nishikori
Nole’s 1/4: Raonic
Wawa’s 1/4: Robredo, Muzza
Fed’s 1/4: Qualifiers, Fognini, Berdych
Players NOT in Fed’s 1/4: DelPo, Monfils, Isner, Karlovic, Nishikori, Murray, Raonic, Robredo
For a change, it’s hard to tell where Rafa will be placed given that stanislas historically plays Nole so well so I don’t feel strongly either way given Rafa’s not in top form.
Just a hunch, but I say Rafa is in Fed’s half. No guarantees on this but I predict 80% or better accuracy on the rest.
#DoYou???
Rafa will be in Fed’s half…………
Final Update:
Hawkeye63’s 2015 AO Rigged Picks:
Appetizers:
Fed’s half to play before Nole’s half (goes without saying).
Many night matches for Fed
Many day matches for Nole.
Amuse Bouche:
Rafa in Fed’s half.
Players NOT in Fed’s 1/4: DelPo, Monfils, Isner, Karlovic, Nishikori, Murray, Raonic, Robredo
Mains:
Rafa’s 1/4: Del Potro, Kyrgios, Isner (or Monfils), Anderson, Ferru, Nishikori
Fed’s 1/4: Qualifiers, Gasquet, Fognini, Berdych
Nole’s 1/4: Raonic
Wawa’s 1/4: Robredo, Muzza
Dessert:
Federer will play flawless, immaculate, inhuman tennis for the first five rounds.
Nole to beat Fed in the final. (Assumes Rafa doesn’t meet Fed, otherwise Rafa to complete his second career Grand Slam further cementing his GOATness)
#DontYou???
#ImOffThisThreadGotIt?
Pospisil? Scary?
http://media1.giphy.com/media/Ou18ZgE49Fss0/200.gif
http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view3/4467421/how-many-times-o.gif
Lucy is Pospisil, Ricky is Charlie Brown BTW ICYMI (and I’m Jerzy).
The football symbolically represents Ricky’s proclivity to up sell Vashy.
hawkeye, did you watch Hannibal last two seasons?
At any rate, lots of very sensible predictions for the draws (given past draws such as they were (rigged, very often, at least the F-related bits of them))
No, I tried the first few episodes of the first season, but it wasn’t for me.
I keep going back and forth on what half Rafa will fall into but I think the Wawa Nole SF potential matchup is too tempting for Fed-fixers given Rafa’s recent level and lack of match play.
It’s the first time I’ve picked Rafa and Fed to fall in the same half by fixer’s choice.
#OldHabits
are they referred to as ‘eff-effs’ ?
I think you are right about Rafa in Fed’s half.
Ricky,
Thanks for the breakdown on the AO seedings. A lot of interesting info and with the withdrawals of Cilic and Tsonga, that has shaken up things a bit. There are indeed some dangerous players floating around in the draw. I can’t imagine any top player wanting to meet Delpo in the early rounds. Even if he’s not back to his best, you just never know.
I am not making any predictions about the draw itself. We will have to wait and see how it all shakes out. I am hoping that Rafa will be able to get through the early rounds which are always tricky.
Thanks for your analysis Ricky. It’s good to know that Rafa won’t face Gulbis or Karlovic too soon, he needs a grinder in the early rounds. I can’t wait for the draw to take place. I think Rafa deserves a soft draw and it’s other people’s turn to face the big servers. I didn’t know Krygios had an injured arm.
http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/tennis/30808840