Rogers Cup preview and picks

Rafael Nadal is out—at least for the next two tournaments—but a strong field will still be on hand for the Rogers Cup in Toronto. Among those back in action for the first time since Wimbledon are Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka, and Andy Murray. Canadian fans will be especially hyped for the event thanks to the impressive current form on display from Milos Raonic and Vasek Pospisil. Raonic reached the semifinals at the All-England Club and Pospisil captured the doubles title. They are also battling each other for the Washington, D.C. title on Sunday in what is the first all-Canadian final in ATP history.

Rogers Cup

Where: Toronto, Canada
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $3,766,270
Points: 1000

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
2013 champion: Rafael Nadal

Draw analysis: Federer may be one of the beneficiaries of Nadal’s withdrawal, and Friday’s draw did him some additional favors. The 17-time Grand Slam champion finds himself in a soft section of the bracket in which his fellow top eight seed is David Ferrer, who endured an early exit at Wimbledon but reached the Hamburg final. Atlanta champion John Isner, generally at his best this time of year, could pose a threat but would not face Federer until the quarterfinals. Unlike last season, Isner will be well-rested heading into the Rogers Cup after losing his Washington, D.C. opener to Steve Johnson. Federer’s path prior to the quarterfinals is likely to feature Jerzy Janowicz and Marin Cilic. Janowicz is in a massive slump, but an in-form Cilic would be no pushover.

Potential semifinalists out of the bracket’s third section include Raonic and Tomas Berdych. Coming off a semifinal showing at Wimbledon, Raonic has gotten things back in gear with a current run to the Washington, D.C. semifinals. Last year’s Rogers Cup runner-up, the big-serving Canadian has to be considered among the tournament favorites on home soil. He may kick off his campaign against familiar foe Jack Sock before a possible date with occasional doubles partner Ernests Gulbis, whom the world No. 7 defeated in the 2013 Montreal quarters. Berdych is looking to right the ship after going down to Pospisil in the Washington, D.C. third round. Berdych should cruise through his first match in Toronto en route to a possible meeting with Roberto Bautista Agut, who is 1-1 against the Czech already in 2014.

A more difficult top half features Djokovic and Murray in the same quarter. Djokovic should not have much trouble in making it to at least the quarterfinals, as most of his potential early-round adversaries are players he faces often and almost always dominates. The top-ranked Serb will open against either Radek Stepanek or a rusty and possibly injured Gael Monfils. Murray’s eighth loaded with guys playing great tennis. The eighth-seeded Scot awaits either Wimbledon quarterfinalist Nick Kyrgios or Washington, D.C. quarterfinalist Santiago Giraldo. Potential third-round opponents for Murray are Pospisil, Richard Gasquet, and Ivo Karlovic. Pospisil just beat Gasquet 6-7(5), 6-4, 7-5 in the Washington, D.C. semifinals on Saturday night and they will square off again on Tuesday. Karlovic is already a four-time runner-up in 2014, including final appearances in each of his last two tournaments.

Wawrinka, who is partnering Djokovic for doubles in Toronto, is on a collision course with Grigor Dimitrov for the quarterfinals. The Swiss’ draw, not unlike that of his countryman Federer, is a good one. Wawrinka’s nearest seed is a slumping Fabio Fognini, who has never fared particularly well during the U.S. Open Series. Dimitrov’s path to the last eight is tougher on paper, but some of his likely early-round opponents may be feeling the effects of relatively long weeks. Kei Nishikori did not look 100 percent in the Washington, D.C. quarterfinals, Donald Young went all the way to the Washington, D.C. semis, and Dominic Thiem is making a quick trek across the pond after losing Saturday’s Kitzbuhel final to David Goffin.

First-round upset alerts: Mikhail Youzhny over (16) Fabio Fognini. Something will have to give in this one, because both men are slumping. Fognini suffered a trio of disappointing clay-court losses after Wimbledon (compared to four wins) and his motivation level on American hard courts is often lacking. Youzhny, on the other hand, usually thrives on this stuff.

Philipp Kohlschreiber over (9) Kei Nishikori. The oft-injured Nishikori struggled physically in his Washington, D.C. loss. He claims he is fine, but his track record suggests that may not be the case. Even at 100 percent, this would be a tough matchup for Nishikori. Kohlschreiber has not played on hard courts this summer, but he is coming off a semifinal showing in Hamburg.

Denis Istomin over (15) Marin Cilic. Istomin and Cilic are similar players. Their serves are good but perhaps not ideal relative to their height, they possess strong two-handed backhands, and they have slight hitches in their forehands. Cilic leads the head-to-head series 4-1, but Istomin won their most recent encounter 6-3, 6-4 earlier this season in Sydney.

Hot: Novak Djokovic, Milos Raonic, Grigor Dimitrov, Roberto Bautista Agut, Vasek Pospisil, Ivo Karlovic, Santiago Giraldo, Nick Kyrgios, Donald Young, Jack Sock

Cold: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Fabio Fognini, Edouard Roger-Vasselin, Alejandro Falla, Gilles Simon, Ivan Dodig, Jerzy Janowicz

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Richard Gasquet, Grigor Dimitrov over Stan Wawrinka, Milos Raonic over Tomas Berdych, and Roger Federer over John Isner

Semifinals: Djokovic over Dimitrov and Federer over Raonic

Final: Djokovic over Federer

[polldaddy poll=8223180]

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!