Wimbledon QF previews and picks: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Ferrer vs. Del Potro

All four of the top seeds in the first half of the draw have advanced to the last eight at Wimbledon. The result is a pair of blockbuster quarterfinal matchups on Wednesday featuring Novak Djokovic vs. Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer vs. Juan Martin Del Potro. Chris Skelton previews the action.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (6) Tomas Berdych

The world No. 1 has dominated his history against Berdych, having won 13 of 15 previous meetings and 11 of their last 12. Among them was an Australian Open quarterfinal this year, which Djokovic won in four relatively routine sets despite not finding his best form. His more balanced skill-set and superior athleticism have exposed Berdych’s one-dimensionality.

Djokovic’s two losses to Berdych cloak this matchup in a bit of intrigue, however. Berdych won their last meeting in Rome two months ago, a strange match that the Serb controlled for most of the first two sets before letting it slip away. Three years ago at Wimbledon, meanwhile, Berdych dominated Djokovic in straight sets en route to the final. That tournament remains the best performance of the Czech’s career, and it revealed the reasons why he can threaten the top seed on grass more than on most surfaces. Berdych holds the advantage over Djokovic in two key areas of the grass game, delivering stronger first serves and more crisply finishing points at the net. In contrast, the Djokovic’s steady baseline game and fluid transitions from counter-punching to offense shine less brightly at Wimbledon than elsewhere.

But Djokovic has looked the sharper of the two men during this fortnight. The only former Wimbledon champion among the men’s quarterfinalists, he plowed through his first four matches without losing a set. Another grass nemesis of his, Tommy Haas, could not even slow this relentless version of Djokovic–more poised and disciplined than the 2010 edition whom Berdych defeated. The Czech also impressed in his first two matches before dropping sets in each of his last two. Expect Berdych to make life complicated for Djokovic from start to finish, staying close to him in each set. He will need an exceptional first-serve percentage and a tepid day from the world No. 1 to secure the upset, though, and Djokovic has looked anything but tepid so far.

Pick: Djokovic in 4

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(4) David Ferrer vs. (8) Juan Martin Del Potro

Much is at stake for each man on his least favorite surface, for neither has reached a semifinal at Wimbledon. Ranked third after the tournament, Ferrer seeks his fourth consecutive semifinal at a major, while Del Potro has not reached a slam semifinal since a wrist injury sidelined him in 2010.  Both men have struggled against the ATP Big Four of Djokovic, Andy Murray, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal, having spent most of their careers just outside the spotlight.

Despite the nine inches of height separating them, Ferrer has held the recent momentum in their sub-rivalry. The Spaniard has won all four of his meetings with the Argentine in the last three years, one on each surface (outdoor hard, indoor hard, clay, and grass). When they met at Wimbledon in 2012, Ferrer yielded just eight games to Del Potro as he adjusted more effectively to the low bounce of grass. Del Potro never has earned as many free points as one would expect from a server of his height, while his baseline game includes few forays to the forecourt. That said, he has echoed Djokovic in reaching the quarterfinals without losing a set, having bounced back from a viral illness that cut short his clay season.

Injuries may play a role in this match, since Ferrer continues to pump injections into an ailing ankle and Del Potro nurses a balky knee. The fouth seed struggled in each of his previous matches, falling behind early before finishing strong. His grinding progress may have depleted his energy, but Del Potro also has lamented his sub-par condition despite a perfect record of 12 sets played, 12 sets won. He even questioned whether he would play on Monday, only to cruise past Andreas Seppi. Considering their recent trends, Del Potro might jump out to a quick lead before Ferrer settles into the match. Once he does, the Spanish veteran should test the limits of his opponent’s physical endurance and mental determination. Those are not areas in which Del Potro has excelled for most of his career. He needs to win quickly, or he will not win at all.

Pick: Ferrer in 5

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