Spaniards Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer are one round away from a Rome quarterfinal clash that could potentially affect French Open seeding. Ernests Gulbis and Philipp Kohlschreiber are hoping to derail that collision course when they face Nadal and Ferrer, respectively, on Thursday.
Ernests Gulbis vs. (5) Rafael Nadal
Gulbis and Nadal will be facing each other for the sixth time in their careers and for the second time this season when they do battle in round three of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Thursday afternoon. Nadal has won all five of their previous encounters, but only one has ended in straight sets. They squared off in the semifinals of this same Rome event in 2010, when Nadal prevailed 6-4, 3-6, 6-4. Their most recent meeting came two months ago at the Indian Wells Masters, where Gulbis powered his way to an early lead only to see his opponent storm back to win 4-6, 6-4, 7-5.
Another blockbuster encounter could be in the cards because Gulbis has remained in outstanding form. The 46th-ranked Latvian is four for four in qualifying attempts this year after playing his way into the main draw on Sunday and he maintained his momentum with straight-set victories over Jarkko Nieminen and Viktor Troicki (the latter of which was a double-breadstick). Gulbis is now 19-6 at the ATP main-draw level in 2013. As the underdog learned in the desert, however, even a stellar performance sometimes is not enough to beat Nadal–especially not on clay. The fifth-ranked Spaniard lost to Novak Djokovic in the Monte-Carlo final, but he captured the Madrid title on Sunday and he hammered Fabio Fognini 6-1, 6-3 in his Rome opener on Wednesday. Nadal is 32-2 this season and 37-2 lifetime at this event.
Gulbis has proven that he wields the talent to trouble Nadal and any other player on tour. If he plays like he did against Troicki, he could even get over the hump and finally get a win over the former world No. 1. His two-handed backhand is the most solid aspect of his tennis (contrasted with his wild forehand and mercurial mental game) and he has done a commendable job in the past of handling Nadal’s heavy topspin. The bad news for the underdog, of course, is that Nadal picked up steam in Madrid and showed no signs of letting up against Fognini. Based on past history and current form, this could be the best match of the tournament.
Pick: Nadal in 3
[polldaddy poll=7106324]
(4) David Ferrer vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
Kohlschreiber and Ferrer will be colliding for the 11th time in their careers when they battle for a quarterfinal spot on Thursday. Ferrer is leading the head-to-head series 7-3, including 2-1 on clay. Their last meeting on the slow stuff came at the 2010 Monte-Carlo Masters, where Ferrer prevailed 7-5, 7-6(1). They most recently faced each other earlier this season in the Auckland final, with the Spaniard taking the title via a 7-6(5), 6-1 decision.
Kohlschreiber stumbled thereafter due to a leg injury suffered during first-round Davis Cup action, but he has surged into form on clay. The 22nd-ranked German won two matches in Monte-Carlo, went on a run to the Barcelona semifinals, and he also finished runner-up to countryman Tommy Haas in Munich. So far in Rome, Kohlschreiber has taken out both Milos Raonic and Albert Ramos in straight sets. Ferrer earned a first-round bye this week as the No. 4 seed before battling past compatriot Fernando Verdasco 5-7, 7-5, 6-3 on Wednesday. The fourth-ranked Spaniard boasts a 31-8 record for the year, which includes two titles and a runner-up showing in Miami.
While he continues to play consistent tennis, Ferrer has not been quite as impressive this season as he was in 2012. Kohlschreiber is building confidence with every week, his topspin forehand is working well on this surface, and he is dictating play with his one-handed backhand. As long as the underdog serves well and prevents Ferrer from getting into a groove with his return, an upset appears quite possible.
Pick: Kohlschreiber in 3
[polldaddy poll=7106361]
I’m feeling the upset here. Gulbis in 2 over Rafa. And I like the Kohlshrieber pick too!