It has been 31 months since the last ball was struck in the men’s main draw of the BNP Paribas Open–when Dominic Thiem beat Roger Federer in the final. That was in March of 2019. The Covid-19 pandemic cancelled the event entirely in 2020 and this year it was postponed from the spring to the fall.
At long last tennis has returned to the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer aren’t there and neither is Thiem, but the field of 96 does feature U.S. Open champion Daniil Medvedev along with Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, and Andrey Rublev.
The title is relatively up for grabs with Djokovic and Nadal on the sidelines. In fact, there is not a single former champion in the entire draw and only Andy Murray and John Isner have ever reached the final. Who will take advantage of a big opportunity in the desert this fortnight?
BNP Paribas Open
Where: Indian Wells, Calif.
Surface: Hard
Points: 1000
Prize money: $8,359,455
Top seed: Daniil Medvedev
2019 champion: Dominic Thiem (not playing)
Draw analysis: Medvedev may be the No. 1 seed, but he does not have the easiest draw. The second-ranked Russian could run into Botic Van de Zandschulp in the third round. After making a run to the U.S. Open quarterfinals. Van de Zandschulp was the only player to take a set off Medvedev in the entire tournament. Reilly Opelka is a potential fourth-round foe for the U.S. Open champ. Medvedev generally handles big servers, but Opelka has been in fine form and Indian Wells conditions should suit his game. Hubert Hurkacz, who upset Medvedev at Wimbledon and is in Nitto ATP Finals contention, also finds himself in the top quarter of the bracket.
The rest of the top half includes Rublev, San Diego champion Casper Ruud, Diego Schwartzman, San Diego runner-up Cameron Norrie, and U.S. Open quarterfinalist Lloyd Harris. Harris in the third round and Schwartzman in the fourth would not be easy Ruud–no matter how well he is playing.
In the bottom half, projected quarterfinals are Tsitsipas vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime and Zverev vs. Berrettini.
But those matchups may not come to fruition, of course. Auger-Aliassime could be challenged by Nikoloz Basilashvili in the round of 32 and either Pablo Carreno Busta or Karen Khachanov immediately thereafter. Zverev is likely to open with Jenson Brooksby before facing Murray or Carlos Alcaraz. The Zverev-Berrettini quarter is also home to Isner, Jannik Sinner, Gael Monfils, and Lorenzo Sonego.
Hot: Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, Matteo Berrettini, Casper Ruud, Hubert Hurkacz, Jannik Sinner, Reilly Opelka, Lloyd Harris, James Duckworth, Mackenzie McDonald, Marcos Giron, Botic Van de Zandschulp, Soonwoo Kwon, Brandon Nakashima, Jenson Brooksby, Holger Rune
Cold: Denis Shapovalov, Sam Querrey, Vasek Pospisil, Jaume Munar, Feliciano Lopez, Tennys Sandgren, Guido Pella, Feliciano Lopez, Joao Sousa, Lorenzo Musetti, Jan-Lennard Struff
Quarterfinal predictions: Hubert Hurkacz over Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev over Lloyd Harris, Alexander Zverev over Jannik Sinner, and Stefanos Tsitsipas over Pablo Carreno Busta
Semifinals: Rublev over Hurkacz and Tsitsipas over Zverev
Final: Tsitsipas over Rublev
who ya got?
Not Tsitsipas!
Margot,
Svitolina is a sound pick. Would love to see her win Indian Wells. Pliskova, Sakkari, Iga, or Laylah – all good. There were too many good choices to pick from! That is another reason I say why not, Emma? 😊
You were saying…;)
🤦♀️ AM must be laughing. There were just too many potential winners- it was confusing.
Tsitsipas I have in the final losing to Meddy.
Zverev has a really tough draw so didnt pick him so far .
Meddy over Rublev in the other semi -I wonder though, Ruud could beat him .
Ruud could win this. He gets better every time I see him and this court is a slow hard court, so they say.
It’s no wonder that I have slipped downhill with my picking. One of the issues I have is stubbornly refusing to pick someone because I don’t like them. Also, my memory has slipped. Not sure my memory will recover but I could be a lot less biased.
Actually,Meddy and Raducanu could well be victims of the ‘sophomore curse’.
You were right re “sophomore” effect and Emma, though she’s only been on the tour for two seconds, so really unsurprising. Med is far more experienced at this level and I’m expecting this slam to be a springboard.
And what about poor Dom? :'(