Will Novak Djokovic win the Nitto ATP Finals for the first time since 2015? Will Rafael Nadal triumph at this prestigious event for the first time ever? Or–as has come to be the norm in recent years–will an outsider crash the party?
We will find out the answer to those questions in a little more than a week from now, but action inside the O2 Arena gets underway on Sunday. Group B will kick off the London finale festivities, while Group A will take center stage on Monday.
Draw
Group A
Novak Djokovic
Daniil Medvedev
Alexander Zverev
Diego Schwartzman
Group B
Rafael Nadal
Dominic Thiem
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Andrey Rublev
In Group A there is an obvious favorite (Djokovic) and a clear underdog (Schwartzman). On paper, the semifinal berths would go to the world No. 1 and then whoever wins the Medvedev-Zverev showdown on Monday. Of course, how things would play out on paper hardly means anything. There is no pressure on Schwartzman and he has been in stellar form of late, so he cannot be discounted. Moreover, Medvedev and Zverev have proven that they can beat Djokovic.
Nadal is healthier and more rested than usual heading into London, but the same can be said of his status at the Paris Masters–which he also has never won–and he lost to Zverev in the semifinals. The second-ranked Spaniard is unlikely to dominate Group B, in which both of the semifinal spots should be totally up grabs. Tsitsipas is the defending champion, Thiem won the U.S. Open this summer, and Rublev is red hot right now.
Picks
Group A
Djokovic over Schwartzman in 2
Medvedev over Zverev in 3
Medvedev over Djokovic in 3
Zverev over Schwartzman in 3
Schwartzman over Medvedev in 2
Zverev over Djokovic in 3
Group B
Nadal over Rublev in 3
Thiem over Tsitsipas in 3
Thiem over Nadal in 2
Rublev over Tsitsipas in 2
Nadal over Tsitsipas in 3
Rublev over Thiem in 3
Semifinals: (1A) Medvedev over (2B) Thiem in 3, (1B) Rublev over 2A) Zverev in 3
Final: Medvedev over Rublev in 2
who ya got?
SF Djokovic d Nadal
Thiem d Medvedev
F Djokovic d Thiem
This time I disagree with many of the picks.
Djokovic over Schwartzmann in 3 – Novak is “cold” and unmotivated.
Zverev over Medvedev in two. The matches between Russians are rarely decided on court and they definitely won’t be in this tournament. For some reason Zverev seems favored and last year’s story will repeat.
Schwartzmann over Mevdedev? I don’t think so.
Nadal over Rublev hopefully in 2 – the Russian never played this event, I think he will be too overwhelmed in his first match. Plus he’s been red hot for a while now; same as Medvedev last year his level will probably drop.
Thiem over Nadal? I don’t think so, especially not in 2. I do expect this to go to the wire in any case.
There’s a high chance that Djokovic and Nadal meet in the SFs though but I still favor the Spaniard if they do. Because the Russian match in group A will be won easily (by Zverev I assume although it might be Medvedev’s turn this year), and since both Russians will probably beat Djokovic, either Sascha or Daniil will win the group. Rafa has good chances to win his (although Thiem may do it as well).
So I don’t think that Rublev will make it to the SFs, I would be very surprised if he does.
I am still sticking with my prediction made before Paris started: Nadal has been preparing to win this ever since he won RG. Paris was just warm-up. Given he doesn’t have any health issues, he’s going to just that.
Zverev is not russian..he is German
The Russian at his best beat the ‘German’ (see Shanghai)
I don’t totally agree Djokovic is unmotivated. He wants to win this just as bad as Nadal. Hus motivation might not get him over the line against the younger hungry players but he’ll bring his best to the table. And the fact that Nadal has never won this tournament does not automatically increase his chances. This is statistically his worst surface and just like he was offed in Paris I will be surprised to even see him come out of that group.
Long story short… Thiem wins Group B Djokovic wins group A and goes on to win the tournament😊