Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer were in the same quarter of last year’s U.S. Open draw. That matchup never happened. They could not be in the same quarter this time around as fellow top-four seeds, but the two recent Wimbledon finalists did land in the same half. While Djokovic and Federer are on a collision course for the semis, Rafael Nadal is on the other side with Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Nick Kyrgios.
Djokovic’s quarter
The best top-four seed (Djokovic) and the best 5-8 seed (Daniil Medvedev) make this a tough section of the draw. Medvedev is completely on fire, having made it to three consecutive finals in Washington, D.C. (runner-up), Montreal (runner-up), and Cincinnati (champion). The fifth-ranked Russian could first run into trouble in the third round against either Taylor Fritz or Yoshihito Nishioka, while Fabio Fognini and Nikoloz Basilashvili are potential fourth-round foes.
A Djokovic-Medvedev rematch (Medvedev pulled off a 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 upset in the Cincinnati semifinals after also beating Djokovic in Monte-Carlo) is probable but not a lock. Even Djokovic could be tested prior to the quarters, as he may have to face 2016 U.S. Open champion Stan Wawrinka in the last 16. Wawrinka and 2017 runner-up Kevin Anderson are on a collision course for the third round, but Anderson is rusty due to all kinds of recent injury issues.
Best first-round matchup — (11) Fabio Fognini vs. Reilly Opelka
From a talent standpoint, Fognini can beat anyone on any given day (see: vs. Nadal at the 2015 U.S. Open as one example). The same can almost be said of Opelka—not because of natural talent but because he owns one of the biggest serves on tour. The 6’11’’ American recently upset Wawrinka at Wimbledon and he can be similarly dangerous on hard courts at home in the United States. If Opelka’s onslaught of serves puts Fognini in a foul mood, an upset could be in the cards.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (26) Taylor Fritz vs. Yoshihito Nishioka
Best potential third-round matchup – (16) Kevin Anderson vs. (23) Stan Wawrinka
Possible surprises – If Djokovic gets knocked out prior to the quarterfinals, it will be at the hands of Wawrinka—not Anderson. Medvedev, of course, is more likely to falter. He has been playing an incredible amount of tennis over the past month and while a week off in between Cincinnati and the U.S. Open helps, it is not an automatic lifeline. An in-form Fritz or the Fognini-Opelka winner could eventually capitalize.
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Federer’s quarter
Death, taxes, and qualifiers all over the place in Federer’s section of Grand Slam draws…. Those are the three certainties of life. The 38-year-old Swiss probably would have preferred to be in Nadal’s half rather than Djokovic’s, but he certainly cannot complain about his quarter. His road to the second week will likely go qualifier-qualifier-Lucas Pouille, which should not cause any serious problems. Guido Pella, David Goffin, and Pablo Carreno Busta are possible fourth-round opponents for the Swiss. Goffin is coming off a surprising runner-up performance in Cincinnati.
The other side of this quarter could go in any number of directions. Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic are almost always less than 100 percent, Borna Coric has been dealing with physical problems of his own, and Christian Garin has no business being seeded at a non-French Open slam. This is wide open for an unseeded floater to make some serious noise and perhaps face Federer in the quarterfinals.
Best first-round matchup — (19) Guido Pella vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
Pella produced his Grand Slam breakthrough at Wimbledon, making a run to the quarterfinals. Carreno Busta is a former U.S. Open semifinalist (2017). The Spaniard is not in the kind of form that carried him to the Nitto ATP Finals as an alternate entry two years ago, but he currently finds himself in the Winston-Salem quarters and is never an easy out. This will be a baseline slugfest between two players in fine form.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (12) Borna Coric vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Best potential third-round matchup – (7) Kei Nishikori vs. Alex de Minaur
Possible surprises — Don’t laugh; Grigor Dimitrov has a chance of reaching the quarterfinals. All of the seeds in that eighth of the bracket are vulnerable and first-round opponent Andreas Seppi is also slumping. If the Bulgarian can work his way into the tournament at the expense of Seppi and Coric, confidence could lead to bigger and better things. An even more likely unseeded quarterfinalist, however, is Atlanta champion Alex de Minaur.
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Thiem’s quarter
This by far the most intriguing section of the draw, and not just because there is no obvious favorite being Big 3 free. Thiem is joined by Tsitsipas, Kyrgios, Roberto Bautista Agut, Gael Monfils, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Andrey Rublev, Denis Shapovalov, and Cincinnati semifinalist Richard Gasquet. It will be wild right from the start, when Tsitsipas runs into Rublev in the opening round and Auger-Aliassime goes up against Shapovalov in an all-Canadian affair.
Both Thiem and Tsitsipas know a thing or two about flaming out in the first round of a slam. It just happened at Wimbledon, where the Greek went down to Thomas Fabbiano. It is none other than Fabbiano whom Thiem will play in his U.S. Open opener. The Auger Aliassime-Shapovalov winner could eventually get Monfils in the last 32 and Thiem in the fourth round. If Tsitsipas scrapes past Rublev, he could eventually meet Kyrgios in the third round and Bautista Agut in the fourth.
Best first-round matchup — (18) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Denis Shapovalov
Auger-Aliassime vs. Shapovalov in the first round for a second year in a row? You can’t make this stuff up, folks. Perhaps it is fitting, as the 2018 U.S. Open showdown between these good friends and fellow Canadians never reached the real finish line. Auger-Aliassime retired due to illness while leading 7-5, 5-7, 4-1. Shapovalov was a considerable favorite at the point in time, but now the tide has turned with Auger-Aliassime ranked 19 spots ahead at No. 19 in the world.
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Best potential second-round matchup – Richard Gasquet vs. Joao Sousa
Best potential third-round matchup – (8) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. (28) Nick Kyrgios
Possible surprises — Would any top-four seed making it to the semifinals constitute a surprise? Given that Thiem is much better on clay and the rest of his quarter is littered with danger, the answer may be “yes.” But it could definitely happen. The Austrian’s draw through three rounds is friendly, two out of the Monfils-Auger Aliassime-Shapovalov group will be gone early, and either Tsitsipas or Kyrgios will also be ousted in week one. Also look for Shapovalov and Rublev to go a long way if they pull off first-round upsets.
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Nadal’s quarter
Perhaps no one will like his draw more than Nadal. It is true that the second-ranked Spaniard is kicking off his campaign against the man who beat Federer and reached the quarterfinals last year (John Millman), but lightning is not going to strike twice. Nadal should sleepwalk into the second week before going up against either John Isner or Marin Cilic. Both Isner and Cilic can be extremely dangerous, but they are shadows of their former selves at the moment.
Isner and Cilic could easily bow out prior to the fourth round, just as Zverev may not make it far enough to meet Nadal in the quarterfinals. The sixth-ranked German awaits an in-form Radu Albot in round one, perhaps followed by either Frances Tiafoe or Ivo Karlovic and then Benoit Paire. A fourth-rounder against Montreal semifinalist Karen Khachanov would also be rough. Khachanov, Paire, or Diego Schwartzman are arguably the most likely quarterfinal foes for Nadal.
Best first-round matchup — (6) Alexander Zverev vs. Radu Albot
Zverev has reached back-to-back French Open quarterfinals. But that’s it; that’s the entirety of his good news at Grand Slams throughout an otherwise impressive career. The 22-year-old German is just 4-4 lifetime in main-draw action at Flushing Meadows, with especially disappointing losses the last two seasons to Coric (2017) and Philipp Kohlschreiber (2018). Albot boasts a 27-19 record in 2019 and he is the kind of player who will make Zverev work extremely hard—maybe too hard.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (14) John Isner vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
Best potential third-round matchup – (9) Karen Khachanov vs. (20) Diego Schwartzman
Possible surprises — Albot beating Zverev would not be that big of a surprise. But it could open the door for a deep run by Tiafoe, who began his season with a quarterfinal finish at the Australian Open. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is slowly rounding into form and may have a chance to beat Khachanov in the last 64. Also watch out for Jan-Lennard Struff, who has a great shot at emerging from the Isner-Cilic section. In this quarter, no seed other than Nadal is safe.
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who ya got?
Have Nadal winning it all, beating probably Novak in the final
Nadal in final but Djokovic probably the champion although i hope Rafa to win u.s. open.
The draws don’t matter at this stage. If there’s one thing we have learned- i is that Djokovic cannot be beaten in slams which are not on clay. And even on clay it needed 5 sets and bad weather to upset Novak.
So Novak Djokovic to be the winner, possibly in 4 sets against Rafael Nadal.
We’ve got all weekend to think about this .Which probably makes the decisions worse
My initial run through it makes me realize that (imo) Rafa has the most decent draw. The top half is loaded with obstacles. Thus I feel like this is for Rafa. I may change my mind but I think Nole will beat Medvedev but that will lead to Fed beating Nole. which makes a Fedal final, Rafa winning #19.
That’s the way I picked my bracket. Not going to get my hopes up for Nole winning 3 GS titles this year….it’s too much to ask.
Rafa has not beaten fed out of clay the last 5 times they played.
The weekly ATP bracket game is on for US Open! Still waiting for the WTA one to open.
Was just filling out my WTA bracket and realized there was no Amanda Anisimova 💔 So, just now found out her father passed away a few days ago.
He, Konstantin Anisimov, was – only early 50’s. And he was her coach too. It’s so hard to lose your father suddenly. Best wishes, thoughts and prayers and much love to Amanda and her family. Very heart-breaking and shocking news.
Wow, Tsitsipas and Zverev both got horrible first round draws. It would surprise me if both of them made the second round.
Albot may be a tough one; Rublev is still playing at Winston-Salem, so maybe he’ll be physically tired for the USO.
I don’t think Rafa couldn’t beat Djoko if they meet in the final. Rafa lost narrowly to Djoko at Wimbledon last year, and he’s injured during USO last year and so couldn’t meet Djoko in the final. The injury had led to long layoff and so Rafa wasn’t ready to face Djoko in the AO final thus he’s soundly beaten.
Rafa has played very well during and after Rome this year, and it took an inspired Fed to beat him at Wimbledon. Fed could win the Wimbledon final given that he’s the better player, and we would then not hear about Djoko being unbeatable at the slams outside clay. (Fed would be kicking himself for letting the win slipped away from his grasp).
So, imo, Djoko is not unbeatable or he’s not a sure in to win the USO. All it takes is for his main rivals to show some belief; I think Rafa has a better chance than Fed at beating Djoko, because Fed has suffered numerous losses at the slam finals to Djoko – Wim 2014/2015/2019; USO2015, not to mention those SF losses.
Rafa has losses to Djoko at the AO and Wimbledon but at least at the USO, he’s doing better against Djoko. He’s the 2017 winner, so he should have some confidence and belief in his own abilities, moreover the last time they met there, Rafa was the one winning the trophy.
apart from RG, how long can Nole keep up his dominance of the majors?
I’ll go with Rafa to win this one.
All 3 have their chances. I don’t discount Thiem either. It’s amazing how most of you see Federer as a sure victim. Yes, he’s old, but it’s not like he played his last slam final 5 years ago.
Fed’s problem is Djoko, whether you like it or not. As for Thiem, I think he’s lacking in matches on the HCs, and his draw is filled with dangerous opponents. I know he was also lacking matches on HCs last year before the USO but still pushed Rafa to the limit. But, this year his draw imo is much tougher, and could only meet Rafa in the SF. Rafa it seems to me that he’s in better shape this year, when last year he had long matches at Wimbledon against Delpo and Djoko.
Of course all these are just my opinions, things may work out differently from what I have foreseen here.
I don’t know that Thiem is fit.
As for Tsitsi,can’t see him going far the confidence isn’t there.
Sadly Thiem isn’t currently fit due to his viral disease. Agree re Tsitsi – also he’ll get NK in the 3rd round assuming both last that long.
Thiem said on Thursday: “After the viral disease, I won’t set my goals to quarter/semifinal. I will look from round to round, everything else would be presumptuous. I will reduce my program to a minimum the next two days and only practice slightly to be physically fit on Monday.”
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1164619576723816449
(He pulled out of Cincy due to the viral disease.)
Nole has an easy path to the QF but Medvedev in his quarter.
Federer has an easy path to the SF but Nole in his half.
Rafa has Isner/Cilic in his 4th rnd and Thiem/Kyrgios in his half.
So Fed has the easiest quarter by far.
Rafa has the best draw of the Big 3 simply by having Djokerer on the other side.
At numbers 1 and 2 Rafa and Nole didn’t need a draw to guarantee they’re on opposite sides.
Djokerer was in reference to Federer in Djokovic’s half.
It seems very confusing as to how the Number One player in the World received the toughest draw of The Big 3. A possible Querrey, Wawrinka/Anderson, Medvedev, Federer, Nadal to win Major 17. I know this sounds weird, BUT if he gets to week 2 I think the difference could be if Novak plays his QF Match on Tuesday vs. Wednesday. The extra day of rest could prepare him for taking down Federer before getting Nadal.
Novak has to stroll through Week 1 because he has a gauntlet in Week 2. Whoever made the point about beating Novak in Best of 5 on hardcourt, is 1000 percent correct. Novak wins the The US Open and further cements his case as The Future GOAT.
what part is confusing?
Nope, Djoko as no.1 during 2012-2014 didn’t win at the USO despite reaching the finals or SF, so no, there’s no guarantee that he’ll win it this time. Not to mention that in 2016 he having the easiest draw (a joke when so many of his opponents retired during matches against him), he still didn’t win it, losing to Dtan in the final.
He’s 3 wins in 8 finals, that’s less than 50% success rate, so that’s his worse slam after the FO, so no, don’t agree of that 1000% thing about him.
Pass the popcorn: Rublev vs Tpas!!!!!
Rublev is still playing at Winston-Salem, I doubt he has the energy to beat Tsitsipas. He played excellently vs Fed, and then lost meekly to Medvedev. I expect Tsitsipas to come through that R1 match, esp it’s a BO5 match where Tsitsipas tends to play well.
Rublev lost to Sharpo in straight sets at Winston-Salem. I doubt he’s going to beat Tsitsipas in BO5 match.
Having said that, Tsitsipas really has a tough draw, as he has Agut in his section even if he beats Kyrgios in R3, followed by Monfils or Thiem in the QF. Both Monfils and Agut did well at Montreal; and Kyrgios is erratic, who can play well to win or just loses interest and plays poorly to lose.
If Tsitsipas could find his AO form, then perhaps he could reach another SF again, a big IF of course, judging from his current form.
Yeah, Rublev played some awful, horrible tennis today and so did Shapo for a while but Denis got it together (maybe helping that he has Youzhny as one of his coach’s now?)
Denis is playing in the Winston-Salem SF v Hurkacz right now, just starting on Tennis Channel.
@Ricky,
You wouldn’t say that Djokovic has the toughest draw to the Final out of The Big 3? Usually, in most sports, you have an advantage being the highest ranked seed. Federer doesn’t play anyone until Nishikori potentially. Nadal IMO has a clear route to The Final. He’s now +340 from +400.
Now down to +300. Djokovic at +115 but you can’t tell me he doesn’t have a gauntlet in Week 2?
Top half (Djokerer) play on Monday and the bottom half (Rafa, Thiem etc) play on Tuesday. Means the top half get an extra day of rest between QF and SF
That is HUGE for Novak! Potentially gets Medvedev, two days of rest for Club Fed, and then Rafa.
Olly- where did you hear which half plays first? They don’t make the Monday schedule til Sunday. I can’t find anything about your statement. If you really did read that somewhere, then that’s great because I don’t want to get more tickets until I know who plays on which days.
It’s on the US Open schedule, I’m 100% correct
they’ve already made the Monday schedule
top half Mon Wed Fri Sun
Nadal Tue Thurs Sat Mon
Nadal and Djokovic fans- I have great news for you! I was just listening to the “Tennis Connected” podcast. One of the podcast hosts has been at the Open watching all the practices and everything really closely. He said that, just like the the past two years, the court is playing nice and slow, and most importantly for Rafa- the court is bouncing very high. He says the courts will favor spin players a ton, as well as the really athletic players.
He said he was watching the Djokovic and Wawrinka practice session. He said Stan was crushing 125 mph serves over and over and over, and that Novak easily crushed every single return right back at Stan’s feet. Just as I thought, US Open will continue to be Federer’s worst nightmare. He might make the semis simply due to his relatively easy draw, but he will likely be crushed by Novak in the semis. He just won’t be able to hit through him or serve through him.
Outside of injury or a highly-unlikely upset, it will be a Djokovic-Nadal Final, and it should be a WAR! Another update: there maybe shouldn’t be high expectations of Thiem here because he has been suffering from some sort of virus or flu. He’s apparently been laid up in bed for days on end, and is just starting to get out on the court now. That does not bode well for him. I thought he could potentially be the one guy to realistically put up a good match against Rafa or Novak, but I don’t see that happening at all now.
Maybe Medvedev can give Novak a match in the QF, but I will pick Novak to come through that one 9 times out of 10 at a major. So now I just don’t see who can realistically prevent a Djokovic-Nadal Final.
Rafa looks in better shape this year than last year, so I won’t expect Thiem to trouble him at the USO. Khachanov may be a tougher opponent for Rafa in the QF should they get there.
Last year Rafa had tough battles against Khachanov followed by Basilashvili, before facing Thiem, that might be why he had difficulty putting away Thiem, and he ended up with his knee injury. To me, Rafa didn’t serve well after coming back from his knee injury suffered at the AO last year, and so he needed to grind to win his matches at the USO (and Wimbledon too).
I think he’s doing better this year, and his draw is relatively easier this year imo, but of course there’s potentially a Verdasco laying in wait there in R3, so that’s the first hurdle imo.
Federer. Fedal final.
Eugene- it would be amazing to see a Fedal US Open Final. But I just don’t see any way possible that Fed could beat Djokovic on a slow, higher-bouncing hard court in best-of-five sets. A few years ago? Maybe. Not now. I mean, did you see the way Fed looked the last two years at the US Open? He just looked like a different guy. And it’s no coincidence- not only was the court suddenly slower in 2017, but it was also Fed’s first time playing in Ashe with the new upper facade and/or roof. The conditions are just completely different in that stadium now. It’s like a damn giant sauna, even when the temperature isn’t too high. There is literally no air circulation, even sitting in the nosebleeds. I can’t even imagine how it feels in the middle of the floor. I swear it’s harder to breathe in there. And the effect on late-stage career Fed is so blatantly negative. I will say that last year was unusually humid and hot there. I’ve heard that it’s forecasted to be more mild this year- thank god. It was honestly kinda miserable there for a couple days/nights. I will never forget the Nadal-Thiem match for many reasons, but easily the biggest reason is just how unfathomably oppressive the humidity was in the stadium that night. I have asthma, and I had to get up and go out to the open-air concourse so many times because I just couldn’t breathe. I love Arthur Ashe Stadium, but the way they designed the upper facade is unfortunate, imo.
They way Djoko was playing at Cinci, I think the US Open is his. Yes Medvedev beat him at Cinci but don’t see him keeping up with Nole over 5 sets (and slamming down 2nd serves consistently at 120 mph+). I think Rafa can only beat Nole on clay. And Fed cannot compete with Djoko on a slow hard court.
Medvedev did keep up with Djoko for four sets at the AO, and that’s when he’s playing baseline long rally tennis; had he come to the net more often, he would’ve won some points there and might push it to five sets.
I see an improvement in Medvedev’s game – he does shorten points by coming to the net and also by serving great his first and second serves. I don’t see that it’s a sure thing that Djoko would beat him at the USO; Medvedev doesn’t have a tough draw till the QF, so anything can happen.
Medvedev v Nole? Definitely, not a sure thing. Medvedev, it turns out is a fast learner! To say the least. It’s not a sure thing that Nole will win this year. Of course I didn’t think so last year either. Last year I remember being fine with him already winning AO, Wimbledon and Cincinnati.
Anyway I do hope Nole beats Medvedev! Rather see him lose to Fedal; but I respect Medvedev more than ever at this point. Not going to get caught out underestimating him again. I’m already more anxious about Nole’s draw than I’d like!! LOL
Rafa has some tricky players potentially – Verdasco being one of them but I have more confidence in Rafa than anyone right now.
Nole quite possibly has Stan in his path before he gets to Medvedev too.
That Stan section is interesting, with Stan, Hurkacz and Anderson. Hurkarc gave Djoko some problems at Wimbledon.
Stan I’m not sure he’s back to a certain good level enough to go deep at a slam. The AA court at the USO seem to be getting slower (after they put up the roof structure; maybe the roof obstructed the wind from coming in, trapping the heat and humidity inside the court, hence the moisture make the balls heavier?).
The slower court not only favor Djoko but also Stan, so perhaps Stan could get out of that section to meet Djoko?
Yes but like Verdasco, you never know. They both can be dangerous or flame out.
Hurkacz and Shapo have so much more energy in their match than the old men Johnson and Paire did!! Terrible match. Paire lost the first set 6-0. I thought he’d retire! then he came back and won the next 2 sets 6-1, 6-1! Johnson was dead tired.
Winston – Salem has had terrible weather. These guys are having to play both QF and SF today.
Would like to see either man, Shapo or H2, beat Paire and get a title in WS. 😀
Hurkacz that is. He’s playing well this year, another most improved player after FAA. He has a great serve, and for his height, he can move so quickly around the court, unlike a Sam Querrey for example. He needs to improve his forecourt game and he’ll be hard to beat, like a Medvedev.
Sharpo I must say is quite disappointing, despite his early promise in 2017 after beating Rafa and Delpo at Montreal, he has not only stagnated but has gone backwards! Players who come after him, like Tsitsipas and FAA, have already moved so high in the rankings (top ten and top twenty respectively).
Even Medvedev and Khachanov the ‘not as young and promising’ players are inside top ten now. It’s time for Sharpo and his team to do something and not saying ‘he’s still young’ as an excuse. The team has gotten in Youzhny as Sharpo’s new coach, whether is just on trial or not I’m not sure.
I really feel that it’s Sharpo, not Tsitsipas, who has the attacking game that resembles Fed’s, only when Sharpo is able to rein in his carelessness, go for broke attitude. He has a great serve, moves well, has good enough FH and BH, attacking mindset; what he lacks is a good ROS, and the ability to control his aggression ie when to attack and when to hold back.
Tsitsipas OTOH, plays a more thinking game though an attacking one. He’s more like a Rafa, except he’s more aggressive; he also plays from way behind the baseline and I feel his best surface is clay, not grass (which he himself claimed that it’s his fave surface).
It all depends on Rafa’s knee and Djokovic’s elbow. Sure, Novak can lose fair and square against Medvedev, a player who attacks less than him is always a bad match-up. Or his elbow may flare up. Yes, Nadal can have a couple of bad days and damage his knee in 4-5 hours fights with Verdasco or Kachanov.
Normally the two top seeds make the final and Federer has no saying in this. The Swiss is not playing better than in the past two years and he hasn’t won this in the last decade, reaching only a final in 2015. The slower and higher bouncing courts don’t help. Sure, if both Rafa and Novak stumble, who knows?
Nadal is healthy, in top hardcourt form and with a high morale. He’s done better at US Open than Djokovic, generally speaking. With the knee holding up, I see him lifting the trophy again this year.