2016 World Tour Finals predictions

With the 2016 season underway, it’s time to make predictions for the eight World Tour Finals participants—in order. Will Novak Djokovic continue to dominate the rest of the field? Will Rafael Nadal return to form? Will any newcomers crash the London party?

1) Novak Djokovic – The question is not if Djokovic will remain No. 1—it’s by how much? He compiled almost twice as many points as any other player in 2015 thanks in part to capturing three Grand Slam titles. He failed to reach the final of only one tournament, and that was right at the start of the year in Doha. Djokovic is too good on too many surfaces on too consistent of a basis for anyone to seriously challenge him at the moment.

2) Rafael Nadal – By his standards, Nadal was nothing short of a disaster in 2015. He did not win a Grand Slam title for the first time since 2004, nor did he even contest a major final. In fact, Nadal never made it past the quarters in a slam. But the Spaniard showed positive signs for 2016 with a much-improved fall swing. He finished runner-up in Beijing and Basel, reached the semis at the Shanghai Masters, and went undefeated in round-robin competition in London. To at least some extent, Nadal is back.

3) Andy Murray – Will a Davis Cup title do for Murray what it did for Djokovic in 2011? Djokovic won it all with Serbia in 2010 then took the ensuing season by storm. Murray obviously won’t dominate the tour with Djokovic in his prime, Nadal returning to form, and Roger Federer still near the top. But the Scot should be just as good as he was in 2015—which is saying a lot. He reached at least the semifinals of the first three slams (final at the Australian Open) and won two Masters 1000 titles in four final appearances.

4) Roger Federer – Federer’s one career hiccup came in 2013. There is no reason to think another one will be on display any time soon. In his 33-year-old season (turned 34 in August), the Swiss captured six titles and finished runner-up to Djokovic at both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. He was the only man to beat the world No. 1 since the end of the Cincinnati Masters (during round-robin action at the World Tour Finals). But a limited clay schedule combined with Nadal’s possible rise could push Federer to No. 4.

5) Stan Wawrinka – If Federer drops to fourth, it may not be any fault of his own. The same will likely be said if Wawrinka slips to fifth. More of a late-blooming Swiss, Wawrinka has pocketed a major title in each of the last two seasons. In this era, a whole host of players are in the primes of their careers at 30 years old—and Wawrinka is no exception. He is an absolute force on all surfaces; especially on hard courts and clay, from which the vast majority of available points come.

6) David Ferrer – Don’t be surprised if there is a considerable gap between No. 5 and No. 6. But Ferrer may be the one to come in next. Count out the 33-year-old at your own peril. Many have done so in the past, and it has been a mistake every time. Ferrer is never going to win a Grand Slam and he will get overpowered more often than not by the five aforementioned players on this list. But the Spaniard remains one of the most consistent performers on tour. He qualified for the 2015 World Tour Finals despite missing two months due to injury.

7) Milos Raonic – Raonic was undone by a foot injury at arguably the worst possible time—right at the start of the clay-court season with the French Open, Wimbledon, and U.S. Open on the near horizons. A 2014 World Tour Finals participant, the Canadian plunged to No. 14 in the world. He parted ways from Ivan Ljubicic (now working with Federer) but still has primary coach Ricardo Piatti in his corner and also hired Carlos Moya. Raonic appears to be in prime physical condition heading into 2016.

8) Tomas Berdych – Really the last three London spots could be up for grabs. Ferrer and Raonic are obviously no locks and neither is Berdych, while guys like Kei Nishikori and Richard Gasquet are clear contenders. Berdych’s results are impressively consistent, but he seems to have plateaued; in fact, he has plateaued for several years now. Being his typically solid self should be enough for the Czech to make it back to the year-end championship one more time, but he may be at risk if Nishikori and Gasquet stay healthy or if John Isner improves at the Grand Slam level.

Alternate 1 – John Isner

Alternate 2 – Kei Nishikori

Top challengers – Richard Gasquet, Marin Cilic, Kevin Anderson

Comments and your own predictions are encouraged!

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