There will be no third consecutive Grand Slam final between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. Owners of 27 major titles between them, Djokovic and Federer battled for the trophies at both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open last summer. If they collide again Down Under, the showdown will come not in the championship match, but in the semifinals.
That was one of the notable revelations of Friday’s Australian Open draw ceremony. The proceedings also saw Rafael Nadal land on the other side of the bracket with Andy Murray, and in the same quarter as Stan Wawrinka.
Djokovic’s quarter
Djokovic’s relatively tough draw goes beyond the fact that Federer may be lurking in the semifinals. Before getting there, the world No. 1 could have to pass a couple of tough tests—heck, he might even lose a set! Djokovic will kick off his fortnight against Korean teenager Hyeon Chung, who is already up to 51st in the rankings. Ivan Dodig is a possible second-round opponent and another Croat, Ivo Karlovic, is looming large as a potential fourth-round adversary. Throughout all of 2015, Karlovic was the only man to eliminate Djokovic from a tournament prior to the title match (Doha quarterfinals).
Life will be even more difficult for the other top-eight seed in this section. Kei Nishikori has to go up against Philipp Kohlschreiber right off the bat before likely running into either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Benoit Paire in the fourth round. Nishikori lost in round one of the U.S. Open to none other than Paire, who was eventually ousted by Tsonga one stop short of a trip to the quarterfinals.
Best first-round matchup – (7) Kei Nishikori vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
Despite all of Nishikori’s success, he is no stranger to early exits at Grand Slams. He has won just a single match in the last two majors combined and he has fallen in the first round at three of his last nine slams. In 10 previous Australian Open appearances Kohlschreiber has never lost in the first round. Just barely missing out on a seed at No. 34 in the world, the German is unquestionably one of the most talented and dangerous floaters in the draw.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (9) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Illya Marchenko
Best potential third-round matchup – (14) Gilles Simon vs. (22) Ivo Karlovic
Possible surprises – Paire will always be prone to bouts of inconsistency, but his 2015 U.S. Open performance appears to have birthed a new player. He finished runner-up to Wawrinka in Tokyo and currently registers at No. 18 in the world. He will be well-rested for this major after losing in the Auckland second round to Lukas Rosol following a Chennai semifinal appearance. Paire has an ideal draw through two rounds and cannot complain about Tsonga and Nishikori being his two nearest top-12 seeds. A quarterfinal run is by no means out of the question.
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Federer’s quarter
Federer doesn’t always get difficult Grand Slam draws, but when he does, he prefers a string of consecutive matches against wildly talented opponents…or something like that. The 34-year-old Swiss should be able to sleepwalk past Nikoloz Basilashvili in round one before the proverbial heat index ratchets up. In succession from the last 64 through the quarterfinals, Federer could conceivably face Alexandr Dolgopolov, Grigor Dimitrov, Dominic Thiem, and Nick Kyrgios.
There is no foreseeable reason why Federer vs. Dolgopolov and Federer vs. Dimitrov would not come to fruition. The statuses of Thiem and Kyrgios, however, are much different stories. Thiem has to open against Leonardo Mayer before possibly meeting Nicolas Almagro and David Goffin prior to the second week. Kyrgios is on a collision course for the third round with Tomas Berdych. Joining the volatile Aussie and big-hitting Czech in an intriguing lower half of this section are fellow Croats Marin Cilic and Borna Coric.
Best first-round matchup — Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. Ricardas Berankis
Dolgopolov took care of Berankis 7-5, 7-5, 6-2 at the same stage of this same event in 2014. Fast forward two years and the gap may have closed just a bit. Dolgopolov is a clear favorite on paper, but he is unseeded Down Under as a result of a slow start to last season following an injury-plagued 2014 campaign. Berankis’ second half of 2015 included a quarterfinal showing in Washington, D.C., two U.S. Open five-setters (beat Joao Sousa, lost to Goffin), and a Challenger title in Italy.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (12) Marin Cilic vs. Borna Coric
Best potential third-round matchup – (6) Tomas Berdych vs. (29) Nick Kyrgios
Possible surprises — The Fanatics probably had two hopes for the draw at their home Grand Slam: a winnable match or two for Lleyton Hewitt and a manageable path deep into the tournament for Kyrgios. Nick has a knack for Australian Open drama and this bracket sets up nicely for more of the same. A quarterfinalist last season, the polarizing 20-year-old should coast through his first two matches. As a No. 25-32 seed, he could have drawn Djokovic, Murray, Federer, Nadal, or his good buddy (not!) Wawrinka in round three. Instead he has Berdych—if they both make it that far. To say that is winnable would be an understatement.
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Wawrinka’s quarter
Nothing short of an Australian Open phenomenon in recent times, Wawrinka has played five-setters against Djokovic on three straight occasions. In 2013 it was a fourth-rounder. In 2014 it was a quarterfinal. In 2015 it was a semifinal. By now you know the trend: yes, in 2016 it would be the final. But Wawrinka has a long—very long—way to go before he can think about that scenario. The Swiss’ draw is positively nightmarish. He could go up against a red-hot Jack Sock in the third round and Brisbane champion Milos Raonic in the last 16. Likely waiting in the quarterfinals would be Nadal, who trounced Wawrinka twice last fall: 6-2, 6-1 in Shanghai and 6-3, 6-2 at the World Tour Finals. Wawrinka beat the Spaniard once in between, but that was by a 7-6(8), 7-6(7) scoreline in Paris.
Nadal’s path to the quarters in Melbourne is not as taxing. An immediate date with Fernando Verdasco will make pre-match headlines, but it may not amount to much. Familiar foes Ernests Gulbis and Andrey Kuznetsov are potential third-round adversaries, while Kevin Anderson and Gael Monfils will try to set up a fourth-round contest against Nadal. But the 14-time major champion had no trouble with Anderson last year in Melbourne and Monfils is once again a question mark due to injury.
Best first-round matchup — (5) Rafael Nadal vs. Fernando Verdasco
It’s not often that two players are featured against each other on ESPN Classic and four or five days later are going head-to-head in the very first round of a tournament. That will be the case with Nadal and Verdasco, who produced one of the best matches ever played in the semis of the 2009 Australian Open. More than a few of their ensuing encounters have been borderline disasters in terms of quality, but who knows… can lightning strike twice in Melbourne? Although it’s unlikely, Verdasco has won two of their last three meetings—so he has a remote chance of making it competitive.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (25) Jack Sock vs. Lukas Rosol
Best potential third-round matchup – (11) Kevin Anderson vs. (23) Gael Monfils
Possible surprises — The unseeded contingent in this quarter is unspectacular at best. Even three of the seeds are nothing to write home about (unless Monfils experiences a sudden and miraculous resurrection). Wawrinka, Nadal, Anderson, Raonic, and Sock are clearly the cream of the crop in this section; there will not be much room for anyone else to shine. But nobody here is anywhere close to unbeatable, so don’t be totally shocked if the last man standing after the quarterfinals is Anderson, Raonic, or Sock as opposed to Wawrinka or Nadal.
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Murray’s quarter
The Australian section of the bracket features seven players who hail from the host nation: Hewitt, James Duckworth, Bernard Tomic, Sam Groth, Matthew Ebden, John Millman, and Jordan Thompson. Hewitt and Duckworth will be the early talk of the town for their head-to-head showdown during first-round action, but only one—Tomic—has a real chance to do serious damage in Melbourne. The world No. 17 has a great draw (he even told chair umpire Mohamed Lahyani as much while sitting down for a changeover in Sydney) that should see him cruise into fourth-round showdown against Murray.
Speaking of Murray, he could not have asked for a better draw. His nearest seeds are Joao Sousa, Fabio Fognini, and Tomic, and David Ferrer is unquestionably the weakest of the 5-8 seeds. Alexander Zverev is a relatively big-name opponent in round one, but the teenaged German is still a few years away from serious slam contention. The second-ranked Scot is going to storm into the quarterfinals, where he will see either Ferrer, John Isner, or Feliciano Lopez.
Best first-round matchup — (WC) Lleyton Hewitt vs. (WC) James Duckworth
This will not necessarily be the highest-quality match of the tournament or even of the first round. But it’s an enticing clash between two Australians that will undoubtedly get night-session treatment in Rod Laver Arena. The atmosphere is going to be electric—especially if it goes to five sets. And nothing screams “five-set marathon” quite like Hewitt vs. Duckworth at the Australian Open. Even the much-younger Duckworth already has plenty of experience with grueling five-setters in Melbourne. Get your popcorn ready for Hewitt’s last ride.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (32) Joao Sousa vs. Donald Young
Best potential third-round matchup – (10) John Isner vs. Feliciano Lopez
Possible surprises — The Aussie fans will have their fingers crossed for a miracle run by Hewitt, but under no circumstances would he be able to survive a second-round tussle with Ferrer. There just aren’t going to be any real surprises in this quarter. But how about this for a good story? American veteran Brian Baker is making yet another comeback. Baker has not played since 2013 after suffering a terrible knee injury at the Australian Open early in that season. He has a winnable opener on his hands against a slumping Simone Bolelli, who is 0-2 in 2016 and 0-4 in his last four matches dating back to last year.
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I want dr ivo to take out Nole in round four I wouldn’t say it’s out of the question honestly
allow me to help you out: yes it is
court speed won’t be fast enough for karlovic to do enough damage to nole with his serve…nole eats up serves at the AO..anyone who wants to beat him here has to have multiple weapons..
yep
amy,
I agree. I think I said it on another topic thread. Karlovic is too one-dimensional to beat Novak, especially in a Bof5 match.
But you said it better than I did! 🙂
ROFL. Karlovic is 3:1 against Novak.
ROTL. No, he’s 2-1 against Novak and one of those wins was when Nole was 21.
None in BO5.
Which shows why any gets HM as a tennis fan.
^^nny
Re-writing history, I see. Rafa is 5:0 over Karlovic but Rafa was 18 the first time he beat Karlovic, so should that not count?
?
I don’t think Karlovic will get past Delbonis anyway so Djoker’s fans can relax. I will be rooting for Karlovic.
Yep, you need multiple weapons to beat Novak here. I’m watching last year’s final shown on tv now. Murray made the mistake of being involved in long drawn out baseline rallies with Novak, he’s not going to beat Novak playing that way as he’s just not powerful enough to blow Novak off the court, unlike Stan or Delpo.
Murray (and Rafa) should inject pace (suddenly) during a rally, push Novak back to force a weak return and then move forward to the net to finish the point. Murray used to be good at changing pace during rallies but lately he wasnt doing much of that.
Novak is the most comfortable moving along the baseline hitting the angles as he’s good CC and DTL from both wings. To beat him one must force him out of the baseline, either pushing him back (the way Stan and Delpo did) or making him rushes forward (the way Fed did).
I see Stepanek on his good day was also giving Novak some problems because he’s a player who plays with so much varieties. Murray and Rafa should mix in some varieties when playing against Novak.
Breaking News
The AO Organizers say as it’s a foregone conclusion that the 2016 is Novak Djokovic there is no need for the tournament to take place.
🙁
Tiggy says:
Semifinals: Djokovic d. Kyrgios; Wawrinka d. Murray
Final: Wawrinka d. Djokovic
Do You???
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2016/01/nole-or-field-breaking-down-aussie-open-mens-draw/57231/#.VpmXfFMrJQM
Wawrinka could definitely win if he reaches the finals, but that’s huge if.
Is Tiggy kidding with that prediction? Kyrgios in the semis? So Tiggy doesn’t see Fed coming through his part of the draw. Nor does he see Rafa getting to the semis.
Although I don’t like to look that far ahead, people do make predictions and it’s only natural to speculate. I don’t see it at all the way Tiggy does. For one thing, I am not sure that Stan will beat Rafa or if he does, that he will beat Murray.
I guess the thinking is that Stan does get to the final and pulls a repeat of the 2015 RG. I don’t think so.
Decided to go crazy with Tig, I chose Kyrgios as well lol.
Of course, Fed is the obvious favorite in that section, but Nick’s got a pretty favorable draw to reach QFs. I believe playing at home and having the crowd support him will highly motivate him to make a deep run.
how far does Tiggy have Nicky going?
He has Krygios getting to the semis and losing to Novak.
agree!
If Stan beats Rafa in quarters he beats Andy in semis. And has pretty solid chance in finals at that point considering he’s two for two in GS finals. Personally I want a Federer-Wawrinka final.
what a joke
I know that final won’t happen I’m just saying. I think if I do the draw I’m going with Nole to win for the first time. I usually go with Roger because he’s my favorite player but especially if I do a draw online that I can win money in like that tennis channel one I’ll probably have to go with Nole. He’s a monster right now.
I do like to pick upsets though especially in case one does happen like Nole somehow losing before the final and I chose it and no one else did so we’ll see. I’m gonna go look at draw now and make my quarter final picks.
Wait do u mean Stan making the final is a joke? Or a fed vs Stan final. Because right now I think a Stan run to final is just as likely as a fed run. Maybe even more likely with Nole on opposite side of stanimal. Then again Stan might also go crashing out to sock or something. You never know with him. But he has down extremely well in Melbourne past couple years.
Stan definitely has a better chance of getting to the final than Fed.
Tignor has picked him to beat Nole in the final.
Stan beat him and won AO not so long ago unlike fed.
I’m waffling on my Andy over Rafa pick – thinking Rafa could make the Final. Rafa has a very tough draw, imo. Stan does too…Stan has to be in 2014 form to make it to Rafa. And yet, Rafa would have beaten Stan, imo, if he wasn’t injured in 2014. That’s why I pick Rafa. Just guessing Andy will arrive in the final in better shape (pretty negative on Tommy Tank Engine after his escapades in Sydnry). Andy will have Ferrer or Isner (likely Ferrer) in the QF.
Andy’s somewhat preoccupied with his pending new born. He’s intimated as much several times. He said he feels prepared for AO but preparations have been different this year and is willing to abandon AO if baby arrives.
If Rafa is in form to make semis (likely having to beat Stan), he will have slain some pretty heavy demons (and I’m not talkin’ ’bout players).
I’d then take him to go on to win Australia against anyone not named @DjokerNole.
Do you???
I do. Forgot about Baby Murray! Rafole AO final for me.
Exactly what I got right now. However I`m not ruling out Raonic making semis or even finals (depending on baby murr).
Yes… that’s my pick (at least on my first draft) Nole v Nick. Nick fever here since IPTL for me…he’s gonna beat Fed if Fed survives.
I have Dimitrov getting there first – over Federer in 4.
Andy Murray beating Rafa. Sorry Rafa Fans.
But Rafa v Stan in a 5 setter. Rafa wins.
http://www.tourneytopia.com/RacquetBracketAussieOpenATP/AussieOpenatp/pool/entrypicks.aspx?entryid=517163&confirmed=true&existing=true
Whoa. Dimitrov over Fed in four? More than bold lol
Well, yeah. After a nights’ sleep, Benny, think I’ll change that one while I can. But staying with the wacky Nick d. Fed. That’s my final answer :D. And I made that pick before reading Tiggy picked it!
Dimi will push Federer to 5 sets and poor Fed will be tapped out. Nick gets the win over Fed in 3.
Fed in three vs BabyFed.
Fed in four vs Nick.
Although nick has a shot at an upset admittedly.
BabyFed really doesn’t.
The crowd will be going crazy. Yes they are great tennis fans at Rod Laver, many pro-Fed but their homeboy will also be cheered like crazy. That will annoy Fed. For a combination of reasons, hawk,
Fed won’t make the semi.
Wait, before Fed could meet Kygrios he has to beat Goffin in R4 most likely. Kygrios has to beat Berdych and then Cilic probably before facing Fed in the QF.
Kygrios may not do it. Fed gets all the youngsters – Dolgo in R2, Dimi in R3, Thiem/Goffin in R4, quite doable in reaching the QF.
You have a very sharp mind, lucky, and good points. Sounds nuts, but Dolgo and Baby Fed will give Fed trouble. Fed makes it by Goffin but Nick lucks out. Crazy pick.
She does, But Goffin lol.
A Nicky Fed SF crowd will be very pro Fed (except for the Fanatics obviously).
I don’t think Kyrgios is going to beat both Berdy and Cilic.
Not only Goffin though, there’s Thiem. In a BO5, Thiem has a bit more chances vs Fed, esp if Dimi softens Fed in five sets.
The problem with Kygrios is his showboating nature. Can he rein that in over four or five sets when facing Berdych and then probably Cilic?
Nny, have you ever used the TC Racket Bracket draw game for the fun of it? It puts your picks in stone and then I can go look at your picks and leave you a comment 🙂
My picks for first round are done – first GS 2016 completed!
Yeah, I might be jumping the gun on Kyrgios by a couple years. He’s impressed me lately – a real team player for Shanghai Slammers and Hopman Cup. Performing and executing well in front of the home crowd comes appears natural for him. Is he poised enough to be both entertaining but seriously focused for five sets v Fed at AO? I think so, but I could be bandwagon hopping too soon.
I think if Dimi was in his 2014 AO form, then that might be a possibility. Although he’s shown signs of improvement in the early going, I am not sure he’s going to be able to beat Fed in a Bof5 match. That’s where the top players have the advantage in physical and mental strength against the young guys.
ratcliff,
No I have never used the TC racket bracket. How do you get to it! I am not a big fan of predicting before any matches have been played. I understand that this is the point of making your points before the tournament starts. That’s why they are called predictions! But I tend to prefer to see how the players look first, especially the top ones. Then I get a better sense as to where they are at and what their chances are.
Did you post all your picks on the site or only on the bracket?
I see reasoning behind Nick winning. Trust me I was unhappy to see fed got Nick in his quarter but I dunno about straight sets and I dunno about Nick getting the win for sure either especially if fed actually cruises through his first matches which in everyone is saying won’t happen even though dolgopolov Dimitrov and Thiem are capable of getting destroyed by Roger. Just saying.
Nny,
Tennis Channel uses what’s called tourneytopia for their Racquet Bracket GS games. I’ve been picking ATP brackets since 2010, WTA for 2 years. I’m still bad at both but better ATP than WTA. It’s just fun, imo.
Tennis Channel has the Racquet Bracket advertised on their website. You just click on Racquet Bracket, go in make your picks for the main TC ATP draw, they will ask you to register. After you have done that, you can transfer your draw picks to the pool that Ricky set up for Grandstand! But it’s not an automatic transfer, so you’ll have to pick again…that’s what is not so user-friendly but once you’ve done it, it gets easy.
The deadline for picking and submitting your bracket for AO 2016 remains open until the tennis starts Monday morning – Melbourne time zone. Around 5 pm Sunday, in my case.
Here’s Ricky’s link to Grandstand Bracket pool:
http://www.tourneytopia.com/RacquetBracketAussieOpenATP/TheGrandstand2016/default.aspx
Nole over Stan final is my pick.
have you filled out the tourneytopia ATP bracket? I do it for fun and practice…and proof of my picks.
rc, do you just fill out the public picks or part of a private contest they offer.
Used to set up a pool at Global Tennis Network. But I just filled out a private bracket – which will become public in a few hours! Do it hawk, it’s fun! You can leave my bracket a comment on how you were right and I was wrong, I can admit I was on a bandwagon, ect… 😉
i will make a Grandstand group
Thanks Ricky! (you’re da best)
rc, are you able to easily transfer your picks to a group Ricky sets up?
In other words, should I make my picks now or wait until Ricky sets up the group so’s I don’t have to re-enter them?
i think you can do it now
Yep, hawk. It’s easy to register, do a bracket now and transfer when Ricky gets the Grandstand pool up.
Been working on my WTA one and have Vika winning, lol…
i have Azarenka winning as well
nothing funny about it
http://www.tourneytopia.com/RacquetBracketAussieOpenATP/TheGrandstand2016/default.aspx
kewl!
Solid pick on Azarenka
Fair enough. I might take Serena out earlier. Not sure about her physical and mental situation.
As I said, WTA is tough bracket picking. Only been doing it 2 years – and I struggle.
I’ve entered my picks but how do I enter them into TG’s pool???
Looks like I have to reenter manually!!!
no clue. Rqcquet Bracket is a VERY poorly run site.
OK I’ve joined.
Who is Phoenix Rising.
You ricky?
Once you get used to it, it’s great for the pool comment section.
If you are already registered and did your picks for the main Racket Bracket Tourneytopia ATP draw, like I had, then, yes, you have to select Ricky’s TG link to our pool, 1) fill out another bracket 2) when you click ‘submit’ (which is the exciting part), You will be asked to register again. The minor snafu is, I think to prevent multiple accounts?
Simples. Tournytopia.
Done.
Prepare for defeat!
ratcliff,
Thanks for all the info! I am going to take advantage and wait as long as possible before I make my picks, if I decided to do so. We will see! 🙂
ratcliff,
One more thing! I love you picking Vika to win the AO on the women’s side! I like Serena, but it would be great to see Vika win a slam after working to get back up in the rankings last year. She’s got the game for sure! This is the time when I do watch the women. I really have no choice because they have to show the women as well as the men. But I do enjoy women’s tennis more at the slams.
I didn’t realize that Nishi has to go up against Kohls. That could be a good one. I don’t know what kind of form Kohls is in right now, but when he’s on his game he can make a match of it. I guess the real question is what kind of form is Nishi in? Then Nishi would have Paire or Tsonga. It’s not going to be easy for him.
Anything is possible. Fed may lose to Dimi in R3 and Kygrios may beat Berdych in R4 and beat Dimi in QF to reach the SF.
We may have Dr Ivo beating Novak in R4 in 4 tie break sets too; anything can happen. I said no way Ivo is going to beat Novak here in BO5, after watching how Fed and Murray beat Ivo on grass. However, I do remember that on the HCs, Ivo seemed harder to beat, Nadal had to go the distance to beat him on several occasions and Ivo has beaten Novak twice, perhaps Ivo moves better on the HCs than on grass ( though a big serve is harder to counter on grass).
Maybe we have Tsonga/Kygrios and Rafa/Murray SFs?
All pospisil except baby Fed won’t beat his Daddy.
Speaking of Pospisil I think he could make run to fourth round against Nole if he gets by what I would call an opportunity against Simon, who hasn’t really played great recently.
Rafa gets it…
#Nadal on facing Verdasco in 1R: “He’s able to reach a great level of tennis. It’s a very very dangerous match.” https://t.co/F50VVNyDEj
To others.
I posted the FULL transcript of Rafa’s pre-tournament press conference held today (on January 16) on Rafa’s page (AT 9:28 AM):
http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2016-01-15/rafael_nadal_160116.html
Sock vs Fritz in the first round, that should be interesting. I wish Americans didn’t play each other so early.
It will be interesting, V. If Jack doesn’t recover quick, Taylor has a chance, a slim one.
No way Dimi beats Fed! He wasn’t able to beat Troicki for the title!
No way Rafa is losing to Andy! Stan needs to deal with Milos first and he may as well be sent home!
Rafa vs Novak ( or Fed if the Swiss is on something STRONG ?) in the final with over 40 degrees on-court temperature…
Vamos Rafa!
Yeah I saw that Natashao. But it doesn’t stop me – counting on Dimi’s fresh young legs, amongst other ideas.
The final is at night so its cooler, which may explain why Novak had done well in the finals – 5 for 5.
As the no.1 player he usually gets favorable time slots for his matches.
Fed usually gets to choose which is why he seldom has to play in the heat during the day.
That!
Believe you are right, lucky. Favorable conditions for Nole. It’s not at all a sure thing, not smug about it, anything can happen (a la a Stan Wawrinka 2014 performance by someone else in that half), but I do have him winning a 6th title.
Nole owns 4 AO trophies and gets to play day match in the heat whereas Fed gets prime time night match…
Since the two of them are on the same side of the draw not sure Nole will get many night matches…
BTW if Fed plays Nick I bet the crowd will be behind the Swiss no matter what…
Meant to say 5 AO trophies…
Nole is the invisible champion that is unloved except for the Gang of 5 on Tenngrand.
and rafa as well… he recently showered his ‘love’ for nole by saying the serb is playing at a level never seen before. Now that’s a LOL.
I think in that moment Rafa was a bit overwhelmed, I doubt he meant that Novak was better than Fed ever was. To Rafa Fed is the greatest player for a long time whilst Novak only at that moment playing better than anyone else he has seen. As Rafa puts it, its not possible for Novak to play that way all the time.
To me, Rafa is the greatest player of this era, because despite his injury woes, despite not having a great serve and a BHDTL and despite switching to a clay based game ( from a more aggressive game on the HC) he is still able to hold his own among another two all time greats; whilst Fed has his perfect technique and Novak being the perfectly balanced player. If Rafa has the perfect balance with the addition of his BHDTL plus a great serve and is not injury prone ( at least playing a more sensible schedule), just imagine what a monster he can be…
haha…luckystar, the point of writing that down was something else 😉
Anyway, I don’t think rafa said that because he was overwhelmed. Why did he not say anything like that when fed beat hi, 6-3 6-0 at WTF or or 6-4 6-1 in tennis masters cup 2007? Yes, rafa has long called fed as the greatest but the words he used for djokovic that day were unique. He meant them… The only other interpretation could be that rafa thought that the level novak’s displayed against HIM is the highest anyone has ever displayed, which is true by a long margin isn’t it? Perhaps that is what he meant.
And, saying that novak is playing at a level he has never seen from any of his rivals is different from giving him judgement on GOAT because the latter is measured usually by number of slams and rafa does that too.
why is my comment awaiting moderation?!! :O
I will wait for it to be put up here…probably a mistake or something.
@Lucky, in response to your reasoning as to why you think rafa is the best of this generation, your points are interesting. As a rafa fan I totally understand those sentiments but unfortunately, these arguments will be given no weight when assessing rafa, novak and federer. The point about rafa getting injured so much , though, should be seriously considered!
But arguments such as rafa not having a backhand DTL will be put down. I don’t have doubts about how much damage rafa would have done if had that shot as a natural one but wouldn’t it be the same as saying what would federer have done to men’s tennis if he had a destructive two handed backhand like novak’s or andy’s or nalby’s? Fans of all three players will keep coming up with suc hypothetical arguments.
To me , rafa’s greatness stretches far beyond numbers though. I always give value to many non-statistical factors. When rafa was in the AO 2014 final, I thought he would surely get double career slam and THAT would make him the undisputed greatest of this era. Unfortunately he could not and he has not won a non-clay slam since. The AO has been so unlucky for him. The 2012 loss and then that tragedy in 2014 🙁
I will wait till all three of these players retire because now there is another guy in the mix and he will probably end up with winning head to heads against BOTH nadal and federer!!! I am quite worried about djokovic’s progress now….inching closer to rafa’s slam count.
Weren’t what you’re saying effectively what I was saying, which was: Novak’s level on that day was the highest Rafa had ever seen. However, greatness isn’t/wasn’t measured by only one match, but performances throughout a career, and Rafa had doubts that Novak could maintain that high level.
No, you clearly dont understand my point. Rafa doesnt even have a consistent BHDTL shot to begin with! He runs around his BH to hit his FHDTL.
Its different from saying that Fed would do better with a DHBH because in the first place he doesnt even hit one! Nobody can say that Fed would be better off hitting a DHBH because its not proven.
Rafa OTOH, hits a DHBH but he rarely uses his BHDTL shot, preferring to run around to hit a FH. Now we have seen how good Rafa hit his BHDTL esp in that FO2013 SF vs Novak. So, my point is, if he keeps hitting that shot, he can only get better with it, and he would have an additional weapon vs Novak, unlike now where he has to run so much to cover both wings CC and DTL.
You also missed the point. Rafa not being perfect vs Fed with perfect technique or vs Novak the perfectly balanced, complete player – that to me shows how great Rafa is when he’s able to hold his own vs those two despite not being perfect.
Novak can win all the BO3 encounters but when it comes to slams, I doubt he can win them all vs Rafa, who currently is 9-4 vs Novak at the slams. We dont even need to talk about Fed when its Rafa, not Novak, who has an unbelievable record at the slams vs Fed.
I did not miss any point…these are straightforward points. I will still say that most of those points will be put down when experts and judges will be assessing these three players. I UNDERSTAND and importance of these points as I am a rafa fan but I think it is fair to exclude most of them because you can have several If’s and but’s for the other two players and it does not really matter whether those if’s and but’s are of the same nature.
What might have happened if novak did not have lack of physical stamina and strength before 2011? would he have won more? He surely had the game! he won AO 2008 and was already beating federer-nadal in best of 3… rafa’s mentally the strongest but djokoviv’s inability to hang with fed-rafa because of physical strength held him back several times…. he totally transformed once he got that right in 2011. He trailed rafa 4-14 once in the head to head and they played lots of matches when he was not strong enough. I still believe rafa would have held the edge in slams because of his mental strength and because he has been a better player of BO5.
So whose fault is it if rafa’s not been able to develop a consistent backhand DTL in his long career? I have often talked about rafa not getting the best of technical guidance and coaching and this being the reason he was not able to develop some shots early on but nobody can quantify what he has gained as a result of being trained and coached in an unorthodox way. He in unique and Toni’s coaching has made him extremely tough mentally. He knows best how to achieve things even with some limitations, and that includes winning slams while playing with pain…
The point about injuries is something I would like to keep in the ‘best of this generation’ debate though. Some say, it is the cost paid by rafa for exerting himself so much on the court physically as well as mentally and that he would not have had the same success had he not exerted himself so much so getting injured for him is just part of the package. Yes, this argument has good weight but it is a restricted one. Rafa’s greatness begins where this argument stops. It is not about getting injured. It is about how time and time again he has risen from the dead and gotten back to the top when so many people had called an end to his career. What he did in 2013 was truly a miracle and in some ways not even Djokovic’s 2015 nor federer’s 2006 can match that season.
Rafa’s greatness is also about how he has overcome challenges when nobody was giving him a chance. Dethroning arguably the grass GOAT in his heyday when supposedly his game for never ‘suited to grass court conditions’, winning the USO when those hard courts were supposedly ‘too quick for him’,and being world no.1 at the age of 28 when experts proclaimed in his younger years that his career ‘would be over by the time he is 28’.
These are just some of the examples which to me , should be part of the debate. Rafa’s greatness extends far beyond numbers. His career is one heck of a case study.
And yeah, the point about him not being technically as sound as the other two and still being able to reach the peak of tennis, is definitely a valid one too.
^^ +1
vamosrafa,
I agree that we need to wait until these players retire to assess where they fall in this history of this sport. In fact, Rafa has said that very thing. There were times when he was asked who is the greatest player between him and Fed. He would reply that we have to wait and see when his career is over where he stands.
I think to discuss it at this time is not that meaningful. We don’t know the final story yet.
Test!!!
Luckystar (AT 6:40 AM),
—at least playing a more sensible schedule—
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Rafa has followed the ATP rules.
vr, Rafa was just making a statement of fact. That Nole has the good fortune to be injury free therefore able to improve his game and keep his rhythm.
Rafa was not stating any blind loyalty to Nole like only the gang of 5 here can.
‘blind loyalty’….HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
vamosrafa,
Yes, Rafa seems to have a lot of praise for Novak. Or is he just being polite? 🙂
haha…luckystar, the point of writing that down was something else ?
Anyway, I don’t think rafa said that because he was overwhelmed. Why did he not say anything like that when fed beat hi, 6-3 6-0 at WTF or or 6-4 6-1 in tennis masters cup 2007? Yes, rafa has long called fed as the greatest but the words he used for djokovic that day were unique. He meant them… The only other interpretation could be that rafa thought that the level novak’s displayed against HIM is the highest anyone has ever displayed, which is true by a long margin isn’t it? Perhaps that is what he meant.
And, saying that novak is playing at a level he has never seen from any of his rivals is different from giving him judgement on GOAT because the latter is measured usually by number of slams and rafa does that too.
not sure
vr, Rafa is honest in his praise for Nole’s current form. Rafa couldn’t speak about Fed in similar terms because Fed has NEVER had the upper hand over him.
thanks…so that is exactly what I have been saying and that I how I assess Djokovic’s level. The guy has perfected his game against Rafa . Rafa is having to work harder than ever now to be able to overcome this challenge now. He is the ultimate challenge for Rafa. RAfa’s greatness will know no bounds if he is able to turn this around…
VR obviously MISSED the point! What business it is about what others think when I said TO ME, Rafa is the greatest of this era??
Also those points you mentioned:
1) Novak obviously wasnt good enough to beat Fed and Rafa consistently at the slams prior to 2011 because of skills issue, not stamina or fitness issue. Watch his matches vs Rafa at the FO, from 2006-2008, did Rafa outlast him there? Or Fed vs Novak at the USO, did Fed outlast him from 2007-2009? Rafa beat Novak at USO2010 not because he outlasted him when Rafa could create 20+ BP opportunities vs Novak’s less than 10.
2) I dont blame Rafa but Toni for not having the foresight of developing Rafa’s serve and BHDTL, instead letting him run around to use his FHDTL. When Rafa isnt quick enough to do that, he runs into problem.
3) Rafa’s injury issues – a) foot issue not his fault, b) poor scheduling not helping with his intensed style of play (condensed clay season), c) unlucky with wrist injury, appendicitis, or even back injury during AO2014.
Luckystar (AT 7:21 AM),
—b) poor scheduling not helping with his intensed style of play (condensed clay season)—
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There are two mandatory Masters during the clay season, and commitment players must play four ATP-500 events during the calendar year (the Monte Carlo Masters is counted as an ATP-500 event).
He also plays at Barcelona, so four clay events before FO. He can skip at least one of those, now that he plays Basel and Beijing, plus Rio.
Novak plays only two clay Masters, one of which is not mandatory, i.e. MC. Novak manages his schedule well, his schedule never congested, 16-17 events evenly spread out.
Luckystar (AT 9:24 AM)
AT 7:21 AM, you wrote about the past seasons, now – about the current season.
—He also plays at Barcelona, so four clay events before FO. He can skip at least one of those, now that he plays Basel and Beijing, plus Rio.—
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It’s three ATP-500 events before FO (Rio & MC & Barcelona).
As for Basel, Rafa had a 3-year contract with the organizers, he skipped the tournament once. He was offered a contract renewal, but I don’t know whether he has agreed or not. Commitment players must play at least one ATP-500 event after the US Open.
(I’ll continue in Reply)
Luckystar (AT 9:24 AM)
—Novak plays only two clay Masters, one of which is not mandatory, i.e. MC. Novak manages his schedule well–
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Hahahahaaa! Yep, Djoko skipped the Madrid Masters in 2014 & 2015, but I think, he did it because of his rudeness towards the Madrid crowd in 2013!
Djoko played ATP-250 & ATP-500 events between AO and FO in 2011 – 2015:
2011: Dubai, Serbia Open, Madrid, Rome
2012: Dubai, Monte-Carlo, Madrid, Rome
2013: Dubai, Monte-Carlo, Madrid, Rome
2014: Dubai, Monte-Carlo, Rome
2015: Dubai, Monte-Carlo , Rome
Note: Serbia Open doesn’t exist any more.
That doesn’t change anything – Rafa played Rio, MC, Barcelona, Beijing and Basel, i.e. 5 500 events, two after USO. He also played two 250 events – Doha and Halle or Queens.
Luckystar (AT 11:29 AM,
I only presented some info about Rafa’s schedule and explained the reason of Djoko’s pre-FO schedule. 🙂
@Luckystar, apparently you also keep on missing the point because the I never quetioned your criteria. Read my earlier posts again. I even said I agree with those points and understand them as a rafa fan. My point was that when experts and analysts will compare these three players, THEY will, UNFORTUNATELY, put down most of these arguments for the sake of being consistent and fair across the board. Don’t know why are you are taking it as me criticizing what you said :s It was certainly not my point.
And, here is my take the three points you wrote:
1. Let’s not forget the strong connection between physical strength, belief/confidence, mental strength! DJokovic lacked belief and he lacked intensity. So you think he gained a ton of skills from Sept 2010 to Jan 2011 when he suddenly got unbeatable?! Nopes, not even possible to gain so much skill so quickly! As rafa kept on saying that year, novak always had the game. He converted his weaknesses into strengths and rafa had to re-calibrate his game to beat him again ! Djokovic would have been SMOKED by rafa in AO 2012, for example. He was just a changed man 2011 onward and improvement in SKILLS, although a factor, was surely not the most important one. And 2006-2007? He was too young anyway. I also remember he won a set against rafa in wimbledon 2007 and then had to withdraw because of physical problems after losing set 2. He was always a tough match up for rafa… He was just not able to match rafa’s intensity and of course, when rafa was playing on clay in 2005-2007 and on all surfaces in 2008, he was just above everyone else in terms of competence as well! One thing is clear: rafa’s level in slams, esp RG 2008 was actually too good for anyone to match in the game’s history perhaps! He was in god mode and djokovic almost stole a set from him there too. However, if you look at a match like Hamburg 2008, where the first two sets were played at a ridiculous intensity, it was obvious how djokovic faded in the third set and it was astonishing to see rafa’s intensity level not wavering at all! It is no secret. Players have so often talked about rafa’s ability to maintain that intensity for long periods. NOvak was only able to match his intensity 2011 onward. On a clay court, yeah, lack of skills was an issue back then and it continues to date! Rafa’s just superior.
2) I agree that TOni is to be blamed but rafa has had a long career and he should take some blame for not being able to do that. Plus, TOni’s contributions to rafa’s mental strength cannot be quantified and quite likely rafa would have won far less had he not had that asset. There are both sides to this.
3) Scheduling cannot be put as an excuse because it is always a player’s choice!! And we also know playing a lot helps rafa generate momentum so that helped him too at times. Talking about injuries, well, I have talked at even greater length . They should definitely be a part of any ‘best of this generation’ debate because rafa’s been very unlucky and who knows how much he would have won had he not been injured.
Anyway, I did not even intend to have a debate here. Was just raising some points the points still hold. Of course, everyone has their own criteria and I understand that.
1) I didnt say Rafa is not to be blamed for his scheduling.
2) It does not mean that if Toni helped Rafa in the development of his serve and BH, he had to forego developing the mental aspect of Rafa’s game. How do you expect Rafa at 15/16 to make his own decision with regards to his serve and BH development? Rafa did try to improve his serve when he’s a grown up and established tennis player and won his USOs with improved serve but apparently not with the right technique hence his shoulder issues and so reverting back to his normal serve after that.
3) Novak didnt lack belief, in fact he was ambitious all along and believed that he would be no.1 one day. Novak was always better than Rafa on HCs and Rafa better than him on clay so Novak hardly felt inferior to Rafa. Its only on clay that he felt he was no match.
When I said skill wise he was no match that didnt mean that he stayed stagnant from 2006 to 2010. In 2008 he was already showing signs of improvements but still no match against Fedal. He had his serving woes during 2009/2010 when he changed racket and had Todd Martin as one of his coaches. Would he be better if not for the serving woes? Maybe, but in 2009 Rafa was at his peak before his injury so I doubt Novak would threaten him. Would he threaten Fed at FO and Wimbledon that year when Rafa was away injured? Perhaps on clay but not on grass. Its not a matter of him suddenly improving his skills come 2011 IMO, its more to do with him able to beat Fed in five sets at a slam, the USO, and him helping Serbia to win the Davis Cup that gave him the belief that he’s ready to beat Fedal for the no.1 ranking. Of course his improved fitness did help him in 2011 but Fedal plus Murray plus everyone else were caught unprepared for this Novak. Come 2012, we saw Fedal plus Murray beating him again.
4) The so called experts or anyone else can name Novak or Fed as the greatest in this era with their criteria, but that doesnt change my opinion of Rafa. I do believe Rafa will finish his career having positive H2H in slams vs both Fed and Novak though Novak may have the edge in the overall H2H because Novak does better at shorter matches and is better on the HCs.
PS. Rafa is 76-44 vs top four guys; even without clay he’s 38-34 vs those guys. Novak is 86-58 vs top four/five guys and without HCs, he’s 20-25 vs them. Rafa is doing better on both his favorite and non favorite surfaces compared to Novak.
I am not here to debate on why rafa is not the best of this generation, so I will not respond to a lot of points. I would just say that they are good points.
Have something to say about some of the points though. I disagree that Novak always had the belief that he could beat Fedal. He might have had belief but that belief got battered pretty hard when he kept losing to them again and again. He is human, of course that would happen! And this is consistent with what he said in 2014:
“I always enjoyed a lot of support from my family, my club and the government, but in 2010 my relationship with this sport was of both hate and love. I was losing a lot when facing Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal and I seriously thought about retiring. Then I told myself that I had to survive these feelings and I had to win Wimbledon, which has always been the main goal of my whole life” revealed Djokovic.”
The fact that Djokovic was able to rise up from the shadow of Fedal has now given him so much belief that NOW he believes anything is possible. He is mentally very strong and this used to be a weakness in his earlier years!Only having the game is not enough and we know that.
I will not comment on some of the points. As I said, I now people can have their own criteria and it all depends on how well they back their points. I do believe that some of the points should be excluded for the sake of consistency and fairness but of course some points are quite valid. Numbers are not everything.
vamosrafa,
I have been reading this discussion and catching up today. I am not going to get into this too much, but the one thing that I did want to say is that I do agree with your point that Novak did not have the belief that he could beat Fedal earlier in his career. I think it’s the reason why he didn’t win another slam after the 2008 AO for so long.
Novak struggled with some allergy issues, physical fitness and most of all, mental strength. That is where Rafa had the clear advantage. It’s true that Novak was always a tough matchup for Rafa on HC’s, but overall Rafa had the superior conditioning and mental belief. I remember wondering if Novak would realize his potential. I thought of him as a head case from 2008 to 2010. He was no match for Rafa in the 2010 USO, especially with Rafa’s big serving. I remember Novak’s reaction when he finally beat Fed in the semis in that USO. That was a big breakthrough for him at a slam. But he didn’t have the answers for Rafa.
I think Novak made a commitment, went back to the drawing board after that loss and made some changes. He came out in 2011 so much stronger in many respects. We all know how it played out.
Now we can see how things have changed. Novak can take on Fedal in slams. He always had the natural talent. But now he has the belief, as you said.
Novak proved me wrong in ultimately realizing his true potential. He’s not done yet. Now we have to see if Rafa can rebound and get the better of Novak this year.’
Do note that Novak made a mistake of changimg racket in 2009 and also meddled with his serve in 2009, hence his serving woes in 2009/2010. I doubt after winning AO in 2008 and TMC that year he was lacking in confidence.
Too much was made of Novak’s physical fitness issue though I know he had his breathing issue and couldnt play well in the heat. He was still able to play 80 to 90 matches during those years and wasnt going for any injury leave. Its more his serve that was giving him problem.
Yes, he was disheartened when he lost to Rafa at Madrid in 2009 when he had MP but still lost in the end. He lost 4 times on clay to Rafa that year but he got three wins back from Cincy onwards. It was Rafa who was lacking in confidence then after coming back from injury.
He also beat Fed at Miami in 2009 when Fed was so frustrated with himself that he damaged his racket on the tennis court; he also beat Fed at Rome that year but lost to Fed at Cincy and USO. His game was slowly getting back on track despite the serving woes, winning at Beijing, Basel and then Paris Masters.
His confidence might have dipped during 2010 when Fed and Rafa were sweeping up the slams and he had his allergy issues that he had to skip Madrid. However, like I said earlier, after beating Fed at USO and helped Serbia won the DC in 2010, his confidence grew. His serve problem by then was also fixed and we knew what happened in 2011. His comment about thinking of quitting probably came after Fedal winning all the slams in 2010.
Why was he unlucky? Yes, he has a congenital foot issue but ALL players have some problems. Pete Sampras had thalessemia. A fact that he did not even bring to light until the fag end of his career. Federer’s back problems have existed since his teenage years.
Nadal’s biggest issue is his stocky upper body and tight abdominal muscles-while they help him play the game he does they come with a price. But that’s not luck. That was his choice. Even with a congenital foot issue or tendonitis, he had a choice to adapt himself.
He’s also had the choice to play less. If he could win two majors in 2013 with a seven month break, I’m sure a bit of smart scheduling would go a long way.
Nadal and all other players, especially the ones at the top are extremely lucky. They have the luxury to pursue their hobby for a profession. Yes, of course it has a price too. But the price is very small relatively. It’s better than the numerous ‘what ifs’ so many people have in their lives.
And all of them play with pain regularly. After 2013, Annacone said in an interview that he was absolutely amazed at how much physical pain Roger can bear-that he has some of the highest pain tolerance he’s ever seen. Just back in Brisbane, Roger’s played the entire event with a flu. You can tell he has a bad cold even now in his interviews.
It’s part and parcel of what this game is.
Nah, the unlucky part came during 2014 where he had his wrist injury during practice and then he had appendicitis. He was on course to retain the YE no.1 that year, given how poorly Novak did at the USO series. We may never know of course but we can only speculate.
We may or may not want to include that AO unlucky back issue.
Fedfan (AT 1:35 PM),
Why is Rafa’s upper body “an issue”?
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Yep, Rafa won two majors in 2013, but this was is a difficult year for him – he played through pain the whole year.
lucky,
It’s true that you make a good point about Novak’s serving problems. I actually forgot about his struggles. I also remember how he had to change coaches. That was a difficult time for him.
Novak could beat Rafa and Fed in Bof3 matches, but not slams for a few years there. I didn’t say that Novak lacked confidence after winning the 2008 AO. I think it was lack of mental strength and fitness overall. But I do remember him talking up his chances of overtaking Rafa for the #2 ranking. I remember because it made me really mad. Too much talk! Then I believe he and Rafa battled in Hamburg. I think it was 3 TB’s. Rafa won that match and held onto the #2 ranking. Then Novak was bragging about winning Wimbledon. He ended up crashing out in the early rounds.
That’s why I didn’t like Novak earlier in his career. Too much talking up himself. Then he looked rather foolish when he didn’t have a good result at Wimbledon. We all know that Rafa and Fed met in that classic final and Rafa won, getting the #1 ranking. Rafa did it all without opening up his mouth and talking about it.
Novak spoke about that Madrid loss to Rafa in 2009. He said that loss was devastating for him. He was so close. It is true that beating Fed at the 2010 USO and winning the DC helped Novak quite a bit. I think those were two crucial wins for him that helped him move forward with a lot more confidence.
Novak wasn’t able to get the better of Fedal from 2008-2010. But when he came out in 2011, it was obvious that he was a different player. He had Rafa’s number that year and then Rafa lost confidence. But Rafa found the answers in that tough 2012 AO loss.
But I am impressed with how Novak keeps working and working to get better. In 2013 he had the yips on his serve, double faulting in crucial moments of matches. He was the one who blinked in those two slam matches with Rafa at RG and the USO. Rafa was playing so well at that time. His DTL forehand did a lot of damage. His serve was also better. Of course Rafa had that formidable mental will to win.
We see that Novak keeps working and improving. He is now serving so much better. He seems to be motivated to keep doing what is necessary to stay at the top. Now we have to see if Rafa can come back strong this year and challenge him.
@luckystar,
I don’t exactly know what to deduce from your last post but you pretty much acknowledged that in 2010 Djokovic felt like a defeated man. It was in 2014 that he told in an interview that he was so down that he almost quit from tennis because of fedal! How can someone be brimming with belief when they were close to retiring!? So, he had a very low belief at that stage and this is just what I saying.
Winning against Federer at USO was massive but he did lose rather comprehensively to Rafa in the final and yes, DC did him lots of good but he did not beat fedal to win it. Come 2011, he was thrashing Fedal, esp rafa, all over the place. He was fitter, stronger and that enabled him to hit the ball with more strength , always have enough strength in his legs to play deep shots and I give lots of importance to the link between physical fitness and mental strength/ confidence , esp in Novak’s case.
I deliberately did not mention his serving woes because I was not putting forward a case for novak’s greatness and talking too much about him often brings unwanted comments to which I am in no mood to respond.
Again, if you notice, the issues with Novak’s serve is another one of those IF’s an but’s I was talking about! What if he never had any serving issues? It was not too much of his fault either! Changing rackets, getting his serve wrecked, was something that damaged his game and he was not even able to take any advantage of rafa crashing out of RG and fed playing vulnerable tennis. Novak was the second best clay court player at that time coming into RG. But we would never know! Perhaps he would have lost to Kohls anyway. So, always best to keep MOST of these arguments out across the board.
@NNY, you are absolutely right about that no.2 ranking battle. He was nipping at rafa’s toes and actually had the upper hand in the first two sets of hamburg. Rafa was just a monster back then in terms of sustaining his high intensity level. He was so scary!
DJokovic just could not maintain his intensity and rafa perhaps even moved up a gear or at least sustained his level in the final set. He won it easily , 6-2. The same happened in MC 2009 for instance! Rome 2009 final’s first set was very high intensity but then rafa ran away.
Now, come to 2011 and recall what happened in IW and esp Miamin. They were slow hard courts but what struck to me the most back then was how novak was able to sustain his intensity level and keep finding an extra gear! When they played in rome and madrid, rafa was not playing well enough to beat him but djokovic’s intensity did not falter at all! He even got a break down in madrid’s second set but came back storming and won it. He had his doubts erased and as you said, he was a transformed player.
Even talking about the heat, you can never quite be confident of ruling the world when you are not mentally ready to play in the heat!! His performances in AO 2009 and AO 2010 were deplorable. What he did in 2012 remains one of the best physical feats ever in tennis!
in 2011, he was stronger ,he was able to focus more easily and keep his intensity high throughout matches. Everything was clicking for him.
Rafa was at the top of the tennis world in 2009 before all those hardships crept in his life. It was a tough, tough phase for him and Federer simply took advantage .Pity. Rafa would have won 2-3 slams that year at least.
vamosrafa,
I just gave my thoughts on how Novak evolved from 2008 to 2010 and then how he came out a different player in 2011. There’s really nothing more I can possibly say on the subject.
I also feel the same concern as you do when it comes to discussing Novak here. So I am going to just look forward to seeing Rafa in his first match later on! 🙂
thanks for your contribution NNY, it was good stuff 🙂
Yeah, waiting for rafa’s match. It is at 4 am at my time though and I have to leave for work at 8 am!! lol
I had addressed that issue (what if.. about Novak’s serve) in my earlier post.
haha….it is not an ‘issue’…it is just a hypothetical argument which has no clear ends. We can only make reasonable judgement and even those would vary depending on whom you support! lol
I was deliberately not going into some details but Fedfan talked about fed’s chronic back problem and some other things. They are also true! He has not been ‘unlucky’ with the timing and frequency of injuries as much as rafa but he has never exerted himself so much on the court either (one of rafa’s key strengths). Rafa was unlucky to have a foot problem and that has often created issues. How often do we talk about Murray split right knee cap though? He has played with pain for most of his career and we would never know how much it has bothered him.
The TIMING of rafa’s injury has been unfortunate. THAT has cost him to miss slams which none of his rivals have suffered. That back injury out of nowhere, that wrist injury out of nowhere while hitting a routine backhand in practice! Getting his knees battered just before RG in 2009. What couldn’t the knee wait for a couple of months! :/
Sigh…. but one thing is for certain, everyone has struggled and endured. Rafa has on many occasions, suffered the most.
From your earlier post, you talked as if Novak was lacking in belief all along which was not true esp after he won AO and YEC in 2008.
He was lacking in confidence or belief only during 2010 when he lost a few times to Fed.
I repeat what i posted earlier on, that had he not had his serving woes, he might have challenged Fed at the FO in Rafa’s absence but not at Wimbledon, as he wasnt good enough on grass then. As Rafa was at his peak in 2009 before his injury, I doubt too Novak was able to challenge him. Rafa was simply outstanding on clay in 2010 and also at the USO so I doubt Novak could challenge him with belief or not.
Novak’s transformation, fitness wise, from 2010 to 2011 was remarkable, though I would say Rafa after his injury during his AO match vs Ferrer, wasnt at tip top conditions come IW and Miami, having serving woes at IW and suffered heat stroke at Miami.
Novak was impressive vs Rafa at Madrid and Rome that year, not to mention at Wimbledon. In fact Novak had found the right strategy to deal with Rafa – came out all guns blazing and then stamped on the pedal even harder in the second set to get the job done asap. Notice that he had since beaten Rafa in straight sets at the BO3 events when he played that way. Its no coincidence that Novak won the BO3 encounters after 2011 mostly in straight sets. Its when Rafa came out all guns blazing that he won those BO3 matches – MC and Rome 2012 and Montreal 2013.
At the slams its a different matter because Rafa was the one who came out all guns blazing after 2011. All his FO wins and the USO2013 win were won this way. An aggressive Rafa is/was the hardest to beat.
This year will determine, IMO, who the best player of this era was. No prizes for guessing who I think will end up with that mantle.
Mikkers, the subject of this thread is:
‘2016 Australian Open draw analysis: Djokovic, Federer on same side’
In case you hadn’t noticed.
Just following the thread, nadophile.
naa, that’s being unfair. Only one player amongst the three is in prime shape. One is too old now and the third one is getting back the level he needs to be. So, djokovic has a big head start. A fair judgement will only be made once their careers are over
Keeping it sane and sensible. Ty, vr.
This is how I see it. That’s why I don’t bother to get into this tit for tat about who is the GOAT, who is this, who is that. Rafa has also said the same when asked about him and Fed. He said that we will see at the end of his career.
Only after these guys have retired and done what they are going to do in this sport, can there be any real perspective. I expect that even at that time, there will be debates. But at least we will be discussing it with the complete record there for everyone to see.
well said!
What GOAT? We’re talking about GOTE here.
same thing…. NNY and I both have never liked the GOAT thing so GOTE it is …. it’s just that GOAT is used so often so one just writes it..
My posts are not appearing ! have posted 3-4 posts
this one did…not the longer one
Rafa is the best of all time (for the time being).
Nole hired BB because he lacked the mental strength (read belief) to stay at the top after 2011.
Agree with vr re Nole.