2015 Wimbledon draw analysis

Lopsided Grand Slam draws appear to be the norm now on the men’s side after Friday’s ceremony took place at the All-England Club. Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Rafael Nadal, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Ivo Karlovic are all in the same quarter of the bracket and they are also in the same half as Roger Federer.

That is not to say Novak Djokovic has it easy at the top of the draw. The world No. 1 has to open against Philipp Kohlschreiber and he is on a semifinal collision course with familiar foe Stan Wawrinka, the reigning French Open champion.

Djokovic’s quarter

Thankfully for the sake of balanced draws there is no repeat of a Djokovic-Nadal quarter of the bracket that we saw at the French Open. In Paris, the world No. 1 had to face Nadal in the quarters and Murray in the semis. Now it is Djokovic who landed in the favorable half of the draw. That being said, Djokovic’s path to the latter stages of the tournament will not be without intrigue. After kicking things off against Kohlschreiber, the top seed could meet 2002 Wimbledon champion Lleyton Hewitt. Accomplished grass-court player Bernard Tomic likely awaits in round three and 2013 semifinalist Jerzy Janowicz is a possible adversary in the last 16.

On the other side of this quarter, contenders include Kei Nishikori, Marin Cilic, and John Isner. Although Nishikori is the favorite on paper, he retired from the Halle semifinals earlier this month because of a calf injury. Even if the Japanese star is 100 percent, Cilic may be rounding into form and is dangerous on grass. The 2014 U.S. Open champion reached the second week of the French Open and began his grass-court swing with a semifinal showing in Stuttgart. A big-hitting third-round contest may pit Cilic against Isner.

Best first-round matchup – Jarkko Nieminen vs. Lleyton Hewitt

This is not your everyday clash between two players ranked 91^st (Nieminen) and No. 117 (Hewitt). For both well-respected veterans this is the last go-around at Wimbledon. Hewitt plans to call it quits following the 2016 Australian Open and Nieminen recently announced that he is retiring at the end of this season. One year older than the Finn at 34, Hewitt is a mere 1-6 at the ATP level for what has been an abbreviated 2015 campaign. Nieminen is 0-5 lifetime in the head-to-head series, but he owns 10 ATP-level wins this year and he has four grass-court matches already under his belt this summer.

Best potential second-round matchup – (14) Kevin Anderson vs. Jerzy Janowicz
Best potential third-round matchup – (9) Marin Cilic vs. (17) John Isner

Possible surprises – Look for at least one of two teenagers to make some noise at the All-England Club. Thanasi Kokkinakis’ nearest seeds are Leonardo Mayer and Kevin Anderson, veterans who will never be taken lightly but also two potential opponents who are far from daunting. Kokkinakis has been the king of clutch this season, especially on big stages, and a fourth-round appearance is not out of the question. One year the Aussie’s younger at 18, Alexander Zverev is in the main draw of a major for the first time in his career. But the first-week draw is wide open for him, as Teymuraz Gabashvili is a grass-court novice, Pablo Cuevas may still be thinking about his Roland Garros collapse against Gael Monfils, and even Nishikori comes in with some question marks.

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Wawrinka’s quarter

You know the top of the men’s game is strong when the quarter headlined by the most recent Grand Slam champion is the one in which everyone else wants to find themselves. But that does not mean Milos Raonic will already be penciling himself into the semis for a second straight season. In fact, the big-serving Canadian may be hard-pressed just to make the second week. That has more to do with his draw than the fact that Raonic is coming off a foot procedure that sidelined him from the French Open. He is on a collision course for the third round with 2014 Wimbledon quarterfinalist Nick Kyrgios.

With Raonic, Kyrgios, Grigor Dimitrov, and Richard Gasquet on the other side of this section, Wawrinka has a friendlier road to the quarters. The fourth-ranked Swiss’ nearest seed is No. 32 Dominic Thiem, a familiar foe who is more adept on clay compared to grass at this point in his budding career. Benjamin Becker and Fernando Verdasco are also possible first-week opponents for Wawrinka.

Best first-round matchup — Juan Monaco vs. Florian Mayer

Marcos Baghdatis vs. Donald Young would have gotten the nod here, but Baghdatis retired with a calf injury in the Nottingham semifinals to eventual champion Denis Istomin and the Cypriot’s Wimbledon participation is in doubt. Monaco and Mayer are two wily veterans, but that is just about where the similarities end. Monaco has been in solid form this season and registers at 35^th in the rankings; Mayer is just returning from a year off due to injury. The Argentine prefers clay; the German likes grass and was a Wimbledon quarterfinalist in 2012. Also, how long have these guys been around? Three of their eight previous encounters came 10 or more years ago.

Best potential second-round matchup – (32) Dominic Thiem vs. Fernando Verdasco
Best potential third-round matchup – (7) Milos Raonic vs. (26) Nick Kyrgios

Possible surprises — Eight years after making a run to the Wimbledon semifinals, Gasquet is no longer thought of as a serious Grand Slam contender. As such, a return trip to last four would be considered a serious surprise. But it could happen thanks to the draw. Dimitrov, a potential third-round opponent, has been ice cold in 2015—at least based on his talent level, lofty expectations, and success last season. Raonic could be vulnerable and Gasquet would have to be chomping at the bit to get another shot at Kyrgios after squandering a ridiculous nine match points against the Aussie at this event last summer. Meanwhile, with Baghdatis hobbled don’t be surprised if former junior champion Young does some damage in SW19 for the first time in his professional career.

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Murray’s quarter

To lift the trophy for a second time at the All-England Club, Murray may have to beat Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic in succession. And that does not even mention the fact that the crowd favorite could run into either Tsonga or Karlovic in the fourth round. As brutal as Murray’s draw is, perhaps nobody has it worse than Tsonga. The Frenchman opens against big-serving lefty Gilles Muller before a possible date with a confident Istomin in round two. After that, either Karlovic or Alexandr Dolgopolov would likely await. If Tsonga somehow navigates those waters, Murray would likely be the one to finish him off.

As the No. 10 seed, Nadal was never going to have it easy. Ferrer is probably the 5-8 seed that the 14-time Grand Slam champion would choose to face in the fourth round, but Nadal will not be looking that far ahead. Not only is the Spaniard in a season-long slump, but there are also dangerous roadblocks that could extend his recent Wimbledon woes. Yen-Hsun Lu and Dustin Brown, who are on course to face Nadal in round two, are both grass-court gurus. A resurgent Viktor Troicki, who is looking good on grass and recently tested Nadal in the Stuttgart final, is looming relatively large as a prospective third-round opponent.

Best first-round matchup — Yen-Hsun Lu vs. Dustin Brown

This is just about as good as it gets for a grass-court showdown between to unseeded floaters. Throw in the fact that the winner gets Nadal (assuming the two-time champion takes care of Thomaz Bellucci in round one) and there will be a ton of eyes on this match come Tuesday afternoon. Lu once beat Andy Roddick at Wimbledon (en route to the 2010 quarters) and he is coming off a quarterfinal performance in Nottingham. Brown, who is not afraid to implement his serve-and-volley magic on the slick stuff, trounced Nadal 6-4, 6-1 last summer in Halle.

Best potential second-round matchup – (25) Andreas Seppi vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky
Best potential third-round matchup – (13) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (23) Ivo Karlovic

Possible surprises — Based on his recent form and his Wimbledon history, Murray is not looking like he is ripe for an early upset. The same cannot be said for Nadal. He went the entire European clay-court swing without winning a title and although he triumphed in Stuttgart, that momentum was washed away by an early loss to Dolgopolov at Queen’s Club. Troicki should be able to get through his first two matches without much trouble, allowing himself to be well-rested for another shot at Nadal. The Serb fell in straight sets in Stuttgart, but he will know what to expect this time around. Nadal is a mere 4-3 in his last three trips to the All-England Club.

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Federer’s quarter

Federer did well to avoid Nadal in his section of the bracket, but this is arguably the second toughest quarter. The 33-year-old Swiss should ease past Damir Dzumhur just as he did at the French Open (6-4, 6-3, 6-2 during third-round action) before things could get tricky. Sam Querrey has a history of pushing favored opponents to five sets at Wimbledon and he has some momentum from a runner-up finish in Nottingham. Fellow American Jack Sock is on fire in 2015 and his serve and forehand should be forces on grass. Feliciano Lopez, one of the few Spaniards more effective on the green stuff than on clay, is a possible third-round foe for Federer.

If a Federer vs. Tomas Berdych quarterfinal is to be derailed, however, it will likely come at Berdych’s expense. The Czech has to open with Jeremy Chardy, may run into Nicolas Mahut in the last 64, and could eventually see the winner of the Lukas Rosol vs. Ernests Gulbis clash. Berdych-Chardy and Rosol-Gulbis are just two of the intriguing first-rounders in this section. Sock will try to solve the Sam Groth serve, Gilles Simon and Nicolas Almagro are former top 10 players, and Lopez begins his fortnight against former Nadal conqueror Steve Darcis.

Best first-round matchup — (31) Jack Sock vs. Sam Groth

Despite his massive serve, Groth has never won a match in the Wimbledon main draw. In fact, last year was his first appearance. He was dealt a difficult hand then, as well, and lost to Dolgopolov 7-5, 7-6(2), 7-6(5). But the 27-year-old Australian has climbed to No. 68 in the world, well within the cut line for direct entry into Grand Slams. So far on grass this summer he has won a Challenger title and made it to the Stuttgart quarterfinals. Sock, on the other hand, has not played a tournament since the French Open. With Sock’s rust and Groth’s serve, this one should be competitive.

Best potential second-round matchup – (2) Roger Federer vs. Sam Querrey
Best potential third-round matchup – (6) Tomas Berdych vs. Lukas Rosol

Possible surprises — Gilles Simon has been to the Wimbledon fourth round only once, and that came back in 2009. The veteran Frenchman should get there again and he even has an outside shot at the quarters. He is not going to beat Berdych on grass, but he would not have to face Berdych on the second Monday if Chardy, Rosol, or someone else can upset the Czech. Assuming Simon disposes of Nicolas Almagro in round one, his draw opens up—mainly because Monfils is struggling physically and always struggles mentally on grass. Aside from that, the fact that the most dangerous unseeded entrant (Querrey) finds himself right near one of the favorites (Federer), there is not much reason to expect a lot of surprises.

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