First round
Djokovic over Nieminen in 3, Muller over Lorenzi in 4
Kokkinakis over Basilashvili in 4, Tomic over Vanni in 4
Gasquet over Gigounon in 3, Berlocq over Marchenko in 4
Kavcic over Lu in 4, Anderson over Smyczek in 3
Sock over Dimitrov in 5, Carreno Busta over Estrella Burgos in 5
Coric over Querrey in 4, Robredo over Golubev in 3
Melzer over Mannarino in 3, Kuznetsov over Jaziri in 3
Almagro over Dolgopolov in 4, Nadal over Halys in 3
Murray over Arguello in 3, Sousa over Pospisil in 4
Robert over Edmund in 5, Kyrgios over Istomin in 4
Goffin over Krajinovic in 4, Giraldo over Young in 3
Chardy over Berrer in 4, Isner over Seppi in 3
Cilic over Haase in 4, Arnaboldi over Duckworth in 5
Janowicz over Hamou in 4, L. Mayer over Vesely in 4
Troicki over Struff in 3, Bolelli over Darcis in 4
Gimeno-Traver over Souza in 5, Ferrer over Lacko in 3
Nishikori over Mathieu in 3, Bellucci over Matosevic in 4
Bemelmans over Becker in 4, Verdasco over Daniel in 3
Bautista Agut over F. Mayer in 3, Rosol over Ymer in 5
Monaco over Delbonis in 5, Lopez over Gabashvili in 5
Tsonga over Lindell in 3, Kukushkin over Sela in 4
Andujar over Ramos-Vinolas in 5, Kohlschreiber over Soeda in 3
Fognini over Ito in 3, Elias over Paire in 4
Dodig over Stepanek in 3, Berdych over Nishioka in 3
Wawrinka over Ilhan in 3, Lajovic over M. Gonzalez in 4
Berankis over Stakhovsky in 5, GGL over Johnson in 4
Sijsling over Gulbis in 3, Coppejans over Mahut in 4
Klizan over Tiafoe in 3, Pouille over Simon in 4
Monfils over Roger-Vasselin in 3, Haider-Maurer over Schwartzman in 5
Thiem over Bedene in 3, Cuevas over Groth in 3
Karlovic over Baghdatis in 4, Youzhny over Dzumhur in 5
Bachinger over Granollers in 5, Federer over Falla in 3
Second round
Djokovic over Muller in 3
Kokkinakis over Tomic in 5
Gasquet over Berlocq in 4
Anderson over Kavcic in 3
Sock over Carreno Busta in 4
Coric over Robredo in 4
Kuznetsov over Melzer in 5
Nadal over Almagro in 4
Murray over Sousa in 3
Kyrgios over Robert in 3
Goffin over Giraldo in 4
Isner over Chardy in 3
Cilic over Arnaboldi in 4
L. Mayer over Janowicz in 4
Bolelli over Troicki in 4
Ferrer over Gimeno-Traver in 3
Nishikori over Bellucci in 3
Verdasco over Bemelmans in 3
Bautista Agut over Rosol in 3
Monaco over Lopez in 5
Tsonga over Kukushkin in 3
Kohlschreiber over Andujar in 4
Fognini over Elias in 3
Berdych over Dodig in 3
Wawrinka over Lajovic in 4
GGL over Berankis in 3
Coppejans over Sijsling in 4
Pouille over Klizan over in 4
Monfils over Haider-Maurer in 4
Thiem over Cuevas in 4
Karlovic over Youzhny in 4
Federer over Bachinger in 3
Third round
Djokovic over Kokkinakis in 3
Gasquet over Anderson in 4
Sock over Coric in 4
Nadal over Kuznetsov in 3
Murray over Kyrgios in 3
Isner over Goffin in 4
L. Mayer over Cilic in 4
Ferrer over Bolelli in 3
Nishikori over Verdasco in 3
Bautista Agut over Monaco in 5
Tsonga over Kohlschreiber in 5
Berdych over Fognini in 3
GGL over Wawrinka in 4
Pouille over Coppejans in 4
Monfils over Thiem in 3
Federer over Karlovic in 3
Fourth round
Djokovic over Gasquet in 3
Nadal over Sock in 4
Murray over Isner in 4
Ferrer over L. Mayer in 3
Nishikori over Bautista Agut in 3
Berdych over Tsonga in 3
GGL over Pouille in 3
Federer over Monfils in 4
Quarterfinals
Djokovic over Nadal in 4
Ferrer over Murray in 5
Nishikori over Berdych in 5
Federer over GGL in 3
Semifinals
Djokovic over Ferrer in 3
Federer over Nishikori in 4
Final
Djokovic over Federer in 4
[polldaddy poll=8885488]
Reasonable predictions.
Looks like that as of today.
We will see no.
Anything can happen in 2 weeks but as of today looks fine the predictions.
Conditions ‘totally different’ in Paris – Federer
“I know it sounds a bit silly but the conditions are totally different to what we’ve seen in the last two weeks,”
“The balls are very dead really, there is not much coming out of the balls, whereas all on the clay-court season played very different. ”
I was excited to read the first part but then the second part that not sound good. Dead balls? It is reasonable to assume this won’t bode well for rafa’s forehand!
Anyway, the conditions in paris are totally different and this is coming from a 17-time grand slam champion! Rafa would obviously be knowing how different the court is. So, time to forget the past few weeks and focus on paris , rafa 😉
Jon Wertheim of sports illustrated has picked Djokovic to win with Berdych reaching the final.
this is the first time Jon has picked Djokovic to win the French open if I am not wrong.
coming to these picks I think most of them are good, except Federer reaching the final. Fed reaching the final is a bit unrealistic and far-fetched, he will most likely lose to Monfils.
Fed DEFINITELY the favourite to make the final.
#DreamDraw
People are focusing too much on how a potential rafa-nole Qtr final does not bode well for rafa. Fair enough.
But let us not forget the danger this could post for Novak! Lately, Novak has also played not too great in the earlier matches before peaking for semis and finals so he is also not a lock to reach his peak level by the time of Qtrs. I know he had not played before Rome so that made him rusty in the first few matches but nothing is a certainty. Novak also improves as the tournament progresses.
Besides, the burden of expectations will be MASSIVE on Novak this time. the same burden pushed him into the net to concede a point at 4-2 in the 5th set of RG 2013 semi! This time, all eyes are on him! Let’s see how he handles this massive pressure.
Todd Woodbridge talked about the same thing:
“There’s a fine line between being prepared and overdone, and my sense is he now has placed enormous pressure on himself due to the brilliance of his season so far,”
“Regardless of who you are it wouldn’t be human not think about the streak and when the inevitable loss may come. Perhaps it may have been better to have lost a match over the last month, just to release the pressure valve a little and redirect some attention to the others.”
“Sometimes knowing how close you are can cause you to expend an enormous amount of emotional energy,” “So the biggest factor over the next couple of weeks for Djokovic will be coping with his nerves. Both physical and mental strength are tested more on clay than any other surface, and it will be absorbing viewing. Fortunately for Djokovic, no player is presently better equipped to deal with this.”
Having this streak and confidence will surely help novak but the pressure will be great too, esp when he comes up against the man who has defeated him 6 times at RG!
vamosrafa,
I also think that nerves and pressure could play a big part in the outcome of the Rafa/Nole match. I have been too chicken to watch Rafa’s recent matches but obviously I know that he has been playing poorly from the comments I’ve read here recently. But the pressure is heavy on Rafa during the clay court season with everyone saying beforehand..oh Rafa will be fine now that he’s playing on clay….
if you’re not feeling great with yourself and your own game that can make you a lot worse, not better. But now almost everyone is saying that he won’t win and that this is Djokovic’s year…that he’s playing like he did in 2011. (Is this true by the way?) But we all know what happened in 2011, Fed played very well and the crowd got to Novak but he couldn’t reproduce the kind of tennis he had been playing before and lost. Now the pressure, years on, is way way worse and I don’t really see that talking about his performance in masters is that much of a barometer given that he’s been far more consistent in masters than slams the last few years. He’s lost slam matches, or nearly choked and lost slam matches (ie against Fed at Wimby) which he should have won so why not again here? If he starts the match against Rafa showing nerves then Rafa will sense that immediately and that could give him the lift he needs to tap into this own clay court game which is afterall better than Nole’s.
Of course all this may be wishful thinking on my part and Rafa could go out early…but I don’t see how you can discount this kind of scenario happening. Rafa being written off may actually help him to finally relax and find his own game..I do hope so!!
amy,
To answer your question about Rafa playing the way he was in 2011, I will say that this is far worse. Back then Rafa was making finals and winning. The only player he could not beat was Novak. There were a lot of questions about him going into RG. Remember that was the year when Isner took him to five sets in his first match! Rafa was clearly struggling. It wasn’t until he bumped up against Sod in the quarterfinals that he started playing more like himself. So things can turn around. But Rafa had been winning titles that year. He wasn’t losing to players who had never beaten him before, like Raonic, Verdasco, Fognini.
I remember reading online how fortunate Rafa was that Fed took out Novak in the semifinals, ending his winning streak in the process. It was said that Rafa owed Fed a huge thank you for saving his chance to win RG. Of course, that assumes that Novak would have beaten Rafa in the final. We will never know what would have happened.
As far as Novak possibly giving in to the pressure and his great desire to win RG, of course that can happen. But if we are pinning our hopes on that happening, then I think we are being unrealistic. Rafa will have to go out there and play well enough to beat him.
nny,
thank you for that. Sorry I probably didn’t phrase my question very well (I have picked up a virus and have been running a temperature these last 2 days so I am probably not writing with much coherence!) – I meant is Djokovic playing like he did in 2011? I realise that Rafa is playing way way worse than then as he was beating everyone except Nole then. There are no comparisons between this year and 2011!
Yes, of course Rafa has to raise his game….I don’t know whether he can or not, but I do think best of 5 will help him…in best of 3 he tends to panic as if he is seeing the match slide away..in best of 5 he tends to have the self-belief that he can adjust and come back. I know that I may be engaging in wishful thinking though!
@Amy,
thanks for your thoughts. I totally agree with the point you have raised. Djokovic has been more consistent and less prone to pressure in Masters 1000 events as compared to slams. The fact that Djokovic has lost two of his french open finals to rafa (2012,2014) via double faults goes on to show the kind of nerves he feels on the biggest stage. He was a little unlucky to have a walkover in his qtr final in 2011 RG but yes pressure and the crowd got to him and he was unable to handle a red hot federer.
However, NNY is ABSOLUTELY right. No way we should be banking upon novak showing mental fragility! This is just a very small factor which could make a difference IF the match gets very close and in order for that to happen, rafa will have to raise his level A LOT.
He needs to have his forehand working at full throttle! That is the only way to beat nole. And of couse the backhadn needs to be very good otherwise rafa gets in trouble and tries to protect his backhand using his forehand; losing aggression in the process.
Another big concern in MC was how Novak started manhandling rafa’s serve! He was now reading all body serves and serves to the forehand so well! Rafa had found some vulnerable spots but now he needs to take a step further in this mini battle.
I believe rafa CAN do it if he builds the needed momentum in the first four matches,
vamosrafa.
thanks for that. A little dispirited reading your response as you are making clear that there are many issues that Rafa has to address. It is always especially worrying if Nole starts punishing Rafa’s serve…that was the horror story of 2011 and it negatively affects the whole of Rafa’s game. How has he been serving recently?
I suppose my point in relation to Novak coming out nervous/tense – which he well could..is not that one could rely on that but that Rafa would sense it immediately and that might help him dial up his own game. So I am talking about it as a 2 way scenario…of course if we are talking about it as a one way scenario (ie Nole cracking) there is no chance.
Luck yet again may play a huge factor – if it is damp for example then I see Novak probably winning…Rafa will need to be getting a lot of spin on the ball so sun would help.
I still think that best of 5 is better for Rafa in terms of strategising and playing with ‘colm’…I know that he has been talking about tiredness but I suspect a lot of that is in the mind and if he started playing well then there would be a big upsurge of energy.
We shouldn’t think too far ahead though….Rafa is always vulnerable in the early rounds.
Am still full of hope and misplaced optimism!
vamosrafa,
I always set great store by your thoughts and analysis. You make some good points about what the pressure and expectations can do to a player who is so heavily favored to win something. One thing I have always said is that there is no such thing as a sure thing in this sport. The closest was Rafa at RG. Now this year things are different. He looks much more vulnerable than he has in the past.
But I am not putting my hopes on Novak somehow cracking under the pressure. The last sentence in that quote from Tood Woodbridge is important. He did say that Novak is the one player who is well equipped to handle this situation. I agree with him.
If we are pinning our hopes on Novak crumbling, then we can set ourselves up for disappointment. IF they both get to the quarterfinals, then Rafa will have to go out there and beat him.
amy,
I am sorry to hear that you are ill. I hope you get better soon. Regarding the clarification of your question being is Novak playing better than in 2011, I don’t know about that. I have said here previously that I think he’s playing his best since 2011. But it’s hard to say in the sense that things have changed somewhat in the last four years. Novak dominated from the start of that year in a way that he has not in the years since then. I think he’s playing the best out of the top four, and by that I am including Rafa. He will always be part of the true top four as far as I am concerned. He did win the double Masters combo of IW and Miami, which he also won in 2011.
Fed had one of his most satisfying victories over Novak at the RG semis that year. That was quite something to see the old man get the better of an undefeated Novak and end
his winning streak. I kind of thought it was appropriate for Fed to be the one to end that streak if it couldn’t be Rafa.
In some ways I think that Novak is better now. He’s more mature. His serving has really improved. I don’t see him double faulting in crucial moments of matches to give away sets or matches. We saw a lot of that in 2013. What I can appreciate is that he’s able to win even when he’s not at his best. That’s what Fed and Rafa have done throughout their careers. He doesn’t panic if he’s behind in a match. He just manages to keep it together and wait for his opportunities.
This is going to be a real test for Novak. How will he handle the pressure of being the anointed favorite to win his first RG? It will be interesting to watch what happens.
nny, still feeling ill! so hope that I am not too incoherent. You are painting a picture of a very confident and more mature Nole so that means that evidently he is formidable.
It’s especially worrying if he is serving so well, although from what Vamosrafa has been saying what is more worrying is that he is picking off Rafa’s serve again. If Rafa doesn’t serve well it will be a long day at the office. I agree with J-Mac that maybe Novak has the best return ever.
But Rafa still has the intangibles to do with heart and passion lying underneath the surface and which can be unlocked at any time…he just needs a little of his famous ‘colm’. Those qualities make him the ultimate warrior we all know and love….
I don’t want to think too far ahead to the Novak match anyway…. the early rounds are always stressful for Rafa.
I hope rafa does not feel the need to do extra in his first matches. The thought of playing novak as early as in the qtrs COULD play on his mind and frustrate him if his form does not improve quickly. Rafa must be patient….I know he will do his best! VAMOS
Rafa will not be focusing or thinking about a possible meeting with Novak. He has been very good about taking it one match at a time and not looking ahead. I expect him to do the same this year.
The concern is that he might struggle in the early rounds. It happened in 2011. He is not coming in with confidence and momentum this year.
amy,
I hope that I can cheer you up a little by saying that it’s great to have you here on this site! Your posts are knowledgeable, thoughtful and insightful. I appreciate that we are able to have a really good discussion about Rafa’s prospects and the possible quarterfinal meeting with Novak. I always try to take it one match at a time. We can’t look ahead, because the early rounds can be very tricky. We know that the players will come out gunning for Rafa because they know that he has not been in good form.
I am concerned with vamosrafa’s observation that Novak was reading Rafa’s serve too well at MC. It means that Rafa has become too predictable with his serving patterns and Novak is ready. As it is, Novak’s superb ROS puts enormous pressure on Rafa’s serve.
However, as you said Rafa has those intangibles. I have said that many times in the past. That is what wins matches. On paper it can look like Rafa cannot get it done, but then there is his incredible will, strategizing and and mental toughness. I hope that he can draw on those qualities as he continues to try to find his best form.
Can u tell me why and how do coppejans and pouille make the 3rd round????
Haven’t seen a single pundit pick anyone but Novak……….
Cahill and Fernandez have picked Rafa…….Wilansky has picked Murray
Surprised about Cahill, not surprised about Fernandez, she always picks Rafa at RG.
Do you have a link to the full picks @amy? I presume these are the ESPN expert picks?
yes these are the ESPN picks…something is a bit wrong with my computer so I can’t do links! I googled expert picks 2015 RG….for some reason the expert picks can show up late on the actual site…at least from here in GB! yes Fernandez always picks Rafa, but I’m pleased with Cahill’s show of faith…Wilansky often picks an outsider so par for the course there….
Got it, thanks!
http://espn.go.com/tennis/story/_/id/12801336/experts-picks-french-open
Cahill and Fernandez have picked Rafa, Wilansky has picked Murray….
Fed’s half kicks off RG 2015 tomorrow:
http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/schedule/index.html
#NID
Rafa’s first match not until day 3.
#NID
Oy, here we go again! Why is he starting on day 3? I don’t like it.
They will call us naive in believing in schedule fixing, but it is consistent and not just at slams, isn’t?
#NID
Day 3?! Yet some people believe the French Federation loves Rafa.
But at least he gets a birthday cake every year.
LOLOLOLOLOL
Tut, tut @chloro, did you just say the schedule has been fixed to disadvantage Rafa? Sigh, you’ve taken a leaf out of @rafaisthebest’s book, haven’t you, whining and complaining about fixes?
Let me wise you up: The RG establishment loves Rafa and there is no such thing as draw and/or schedule fixing. They would NEVER dream of putting their 9-time Champion at a disadvantage.
Exactament turn. Sure they LOVE Rafa more than anyone else don’t they? What’s most important – a cupcake draw and preferred scheduling? Or a birthday cake.
HILARIOUS!!!!
This from a poster I have always labeled a rabid Fedfan over at Satan’s blog (a.k.a. tennis-x blog:
madmax Says May 24th, 2015 at 4:39 am :
“………………………I don’t think they have treated Rafa well at RG after all the years of winning there; I think he should have been given the opening match, they should honour him and respect what he has brought to RG.
Poor of the french in my view.”
Now, when a rabid Fedfan questions Rafa’s treatment at RG verily I say, next time you reach for that coffee, SMELL IT.
Please.
Did you say there are cupcakes in some people’s draw @hawkeye63? Did you or did you not, because if you did this is evidence of another slap in Rafa’s face! Cakes are only for Rafa, no? Where is the respect?????
I am writing to RG RIGHT NOW!
But it’s just a cupcake draw compared to a gigantic birthday cake ritb .
Cake and coffee: a fine combination.
One thing the French (and the Spanish and the Swiss and the Belgians, mind, and many other cultures) are good at is properly enjoying some of the simple and important joys in life, such as a good meal or a good snack and beverage. And a good slap in the figurative face of someone you feel superior to (read: someone you dread a little).
Must have been a moment of unconsciousness, a moment of weakness of madmax over at Satan’s.
By admitting how obvious the deliberate bad scheduling for the nine times champion is… he (she?) is one millimeter away from admitting that scheduling the bright pumpkin on day one (again) is also … deliberate. And since it has always been this way it was always… guess what?… deliberate.
Ah but what about the birthday cake? Certainment that supersedes a any on court allowances, n’est-pas?
But @chloro, we are told the reason the bright pumpkin is ALWAYS scheduled to play first is for commercial reasons i.e. he is the biggest draw in the business so makes sense to start the tournament with a bang (Bang does not mean you should blind people with those shorts, Roger…..).
*scratches head)* does it follow then that Novak is a bigger draw than Rafa since he is playing on day 2 and Rafa on day 2? Answers on a postcard to my Tenngrand address please…………
Why or why do they not insist Granollers plays with a muzzle on? His screeching gives me chills. Too eerily similar to mine when I was in the labour ward welcoming my wee one into the world…………
not again!! do you remember 2013 when he played last all the time and was very un-Rafa like and complained about it?! I mean this is getting ridiculous!
Why don’t they be honest about it and put up one schedule which is for the rest of the tour and the other for Rafa himself – just to be clear about what is going on!
At least he’ll get another cake on the day he plays Novak.
Bon fete Rafa.
“does it follow then that Novak is a bigger draw than Rafa since he is playing on day 2 and Rafa on day 2?”
Meant to say day 3 for Rafa……..
“Why don’t they be honest about it and put up one schedule which is for the rest of the tour and the other for Rafa himself – just to be clear about what is going on!”
Or, they could simply put a caption on top of Rafa’s tournament photo reading, “We don’t want this guy winning, especially a 10th RG trophy. Would be really, really nice if he lost, preferably early.”
“At least he’ll get another cake on the day he plays Novak. ”
Betting they will bake 2 cakes, one bigger than the other. Bigger one to present to Rafa IF he loses to Novak and smaller one WHEN he wins.
Maybe a cake with ‘happy birthday loser’ on it!!
I’ve never been to RG but would quite fancy going over there with a bag of rotten tomatoes to throw at Gachassan!
Oh, I don’t know whom I should believe….
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CFxlR0RXIAAIdwY.png
:confused:
Gussie, you really are a gas! You, confused? Perish the thought……………..
Just “rig” your beliefs and voila! The answer will be revealed……….
Another layer of tinfoil to your hat a day will keep the confusion away!
Seriously though Gussie, you are free to believe what you like re draw and schedule rigging and whether RG favours Rafa or not. I am a sceptic. I have not seen anything, in the way the draws pan out or in arguments, to convince me the draws are random. I have not seen anything, in the scheduling or in the arguments, to convince me the scheduling is fair for all players. I have not seen anything in the way the RG organisers treat Rafa to convince me they accord Rafa the respect he deserves.
Put downs and insults are not rational arguments, they will not make me change my opinion, nor do I think they are designed to btw.
So, until anyone convinces me otherwise, with reasoned arguments: I believe draws are fixed, the RG 2015 draw has been fixed to disadvantage Rafa and favour Federer. Schedules are fixed, the RG 2015 schedule has been fixed to favour Federer. RG organisers do not give Rafa the respect he deserves as a 9-time winner of their tournament.
^^^^ that.
Well said.
Roger has played at least one day before Rafa at the last six French Opens.
I guess they like to keep their love until last LOL.
rafaisthebest says:
May 24, 2015 at 3:02 pm,
—Seriously though Gussie, you are free to believe what you like…—
====================================================
I believe that your long comment is meant to the person who replied to your post on May 22, 2015 at 2:15 pm. 🙂
Gussie, you mean @nny? She is a fan of my posts, so I am sure she read it. But it was a response to you, honest.
She is of the opinion I “egg” you on. Whatever that means………….
Ta-raaa…………..
Either Rafa or Nole from the top half to make the final.
Bottom half: Could be Berdych/Kei/Wawa/Monfils.
Federer’s form on clay has been too patchy over past 3 years. He can be easily ousted if he runs into a hot opponent.
Nice to see that august is engaging in more antagonism and incitement on the site. After all, we all know that it’s not okay to have an opinion that may differ from the anointed few on this site.
She gets egged on by RITB, who is always up for it. Nice to see that the likes of madmax, the rabid Fed fan who went after so many of us on TT under a number of different user names after getting banned by Cheryl, is now being quoted here! Classy!
Oops sorry! I got augusta’s name wrong in my previous post! Let me be sure to call out the right person by the correct name! 🙂
All for one and one for all! Let’s all think alike and never have a thought of our own.
It’s all a conspiracy! It has nothing to do with Rafa not being able to defend his points and lose many opportunities to secure his ranking in the top four. Oh no, that would be blaming Rafa! That’s not allowed here! Right?
I do think that Rafa has dealt with bad scheduling and draws in the past. At one point, I even allowed that there has been some rigging of draws at times in the past. However, Rafa’s ranking dropping outside the top four has nothing to do with the tournament organizers at RG! That is a fact!
I am not happy that he is playing on day 3. I already said that either here or on another thread. His draw is difficult enough. I don’t like the way he has been treated here at times. But I am really over the whining and complaining, when some of it is on Rafa.
@nny disapproves of my opinions and posts, surprise! Not.
Carry on banging on your computer, @nny, I am deaf.
I am looking forward to a response-post from you, to me, @nny, not laced with put-downs and insults, sometime in our lifetime.
Just to be on the safe side, I am not holding my breath……….I am sure you understand.
Thanks.
Shouting does not change opinions, calmly presented arguments do.
“She gets egged on by RITB, who is always up for it. Nice to see that the likes of madmax, the rabid Fed fan who went after so many of us on TT under a number of different user names after getting banned by Cheryl, is now being quoted here! Classy!”
Keeping grudges is………..classy? Who knew……
rafaisthebest says:
May 24, 2015 at 4:19 pm
—@nny disapproves of my opinions and posts, surprise! Not.—
==================================================
I have been aware about it for a long time. 🙂
augusta08 says: May 24, 2015 at 4:51 pm
“I have been aware about it for a long time. :)”
Not you alone Gussie, not you alone. Anyone with 2 bob for sense can see that!
I see it as my “small” contribution to society: letting @nny release the obvious stress in her by venting at me. Can’t whine and complain about it, can I? We all have our crosses to bear, no? Hope she’s happy and “released” after each vent, would mean my contribution has been worthwhile.
As Rafa would say, just accept………………
I think Federer will lose to Monfils in round 4. In the the top Half Djokovic will make short work of Nadal and Murray.
I do not see Monfils getting through. Fed is not going to let that happen again. Also Monfils is notoriously inconsistent and injury prone. I expect Fed to do his best not to suffer the kind of shocking early exit he had in the AO earlier this year. Nishi has a better shot than the likes of Monfils.
As far as the ESPN picks, well that’s to be expected. Many are going with the obvious and likely choice of Novak breaking through this year. It’s nice to see that Cahill is going with Rafa.
I was watching the tennis channel last night and they had a round table discussion of their picks for RG. There were four commentators. Mardy Fish was on the panel and Tracy Austin. The other two men I didn’t know. Fish and two others picked Novak and one guy picked Fed. The sad thing was that they didn’t even mention Rafa. I was really surprised that they just ignored him completely. Very disappointing.
One thing I will say is that if Rafa can beat Novak in the quarterfinals, if the do meet there, it will be quite a moment!
Fedfans just hedging nny.
#Antijinxings
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/23/sports/tennis/rafael-nadal-faces-toughest-draw-in-his-french-open-career.html?_r=0
Monfils has beaten Fed the last 2 times they have played on Clay. They also had a 5 setter at US open last year where Fed came back from the brink to get a win.
Federer was injured in DC when he lost.
Don’t you remember him pulling out of the WTF echo final against Djokovic where he didn’t say he couldn’t play, just that he couldn’t win under his condition.
It’s not going to happen again. Wishful thinking. I remember very well their match at the USO. That’s why I don’t think Monfils will get it done. He can’t keep it up long enough. Isn’t there also some question about him being completely healthy?
Fed could get to the final, but I am not sure of that. However, if he does he’s going to lose. Whether it’s Novak or Rafa, he will not win.
I agree with Ricky’s prediction of Fed beating Monfils in the fourth round. I do not agree with Ferrer beating Murray in the quarterfinals. I think Murray could surprise at RG this year. I think either Novak or Rafa could face him in the semis. Nishi getting through to the semis is a good pick.
Yeah but still on the ESPN site 7 of the 10 experts have picked Djokovic. Ricky has picked Djokovic, Jon Wertheim of sports illustrated has also picked Djokovic.
So what? Picking someone to win does not mean it’s going to happen. Rafa once said famously when asked about not being the favorite that year to win the AO, that he understood people had to make predictions. But he said that ultimately it’s what happens on the court that counts. Players have to go out there and win.
I respect the fact that Ricky and other tennis bloggers and experts have to make predictions. It’s part of their job. But saying it does not make it so.
It just means that most of them are going with the obvious pick, the guy who has been playing the best and won the most so far this year. If Rafa had not struggled so much and shown some of his good form this year, then I think the picks might be different.
How many ESPN so-called experts picked Novak to win last year or the year before? But it didn’t happen. Think about it.
Wertheim never picks against Nadal for the French open, he must have seen something this year that persuaded him to pick Djokovic. Even when Federer was winning every major except French open Wertheim always backed Nadal to win the French.
Cahill never picks against Djokovic anywhere. He must have seen something this year that persuaded him to pick Rafa.
Wertheim saw how Rafa has been playing. He’s seen the unexpected losses and how inconsistent he’s been this year. I think his pick is based in large part on Rafa’s form and not necessarily Novak’s form.
However, the mere fact that someone has picked Novak, even though they have always picked Rafa in the past, does not have any bearing on what will happen on the court. Novak has to go out there and get it done.
Murray has no chance in the SF.
Says who? Have you been watching Murray this year? He’s done it before. It’s not like he never got to the semis at RG. In what universe is Ferrer expected to beat him? I don’t think Ferrer has played his best lately. His form hasn’t been all that great.
Why people think Murray has no chance just baffles me. If you are saying that he has no chance against Novak if he meets him in the semis, well that might be true.
Federer wont even get to the final. he doesn’t have the stamina. The rigors of playing best of 5 set matches on clay will expose him.
What’s happened to Dimitrov?! I can’t see him in Ricky’s predictions at all…who is he supposed to lose to?
amy,
Great question! If you haven’t been watching any of the tennis, then you would not know that Dimi has taken a few steps backwards this year. He’s been off his game. It looked like he might be coming into his own in the last two years, but he just can’t seem to get it together.
Ricky’s pick of Dimi losing to Sock reflects his poor performance this year, as well as the fact that Sock is playing very well right now.
Ricky has picked Sock to beat Dimitrov in round 1
If Dummy loses to Sock it wouldn’t surprise anyone. Of late he has lost to every Tom, Dick and Harry.
Yeah but don’t forget Cahill has also picked Halep to win the ladies title and Halep has 0 majors to her name. Not enough evidence to support his claims.
Everybody starts with a 0. Who said anything otherwise ?
Not just Cahill but many have picked Halep. She is a def top 3 fav besides Serena and Maria.
sanju,
Well said! 🙂
Predictions are exactly that. Predictions. Someone’s opinion as to who will win. It has no bearing on what happens on the court.
So technically this extra slow surface – is it going to help Rafa?
I think given the fitness issues it may hamper him as he won’t be able to hit through the ball.
Gimelstob and Davenport picked Novak. 50/50 in quarters imo
Pat,
I agree with you about 50-50. That seems fair to me.
Q. What do you think about the conditions of play here? Because I have heard Roger said it’s completely different from the previous weeks with the balls and it’s a big adjustment to make.
RAFAEL NADAL: I don’t know what’s happened with the courts. A little bit worse than usual, but I don’t see a big adjustment. No, no, I don’t feel that way. I feel that is another clay court season. Is obvious that the center court here is a little bit tougher to play than other center courts because is so big. There is wind always there. But I think for us, it’s not new. We know what’s going to happen here and the conditions that you’re going to find. That’s all. It’s true that you need to adjust, but as every year.
So rafa does not feel there is that big a difference. Roger does not feel the same. haha.
Vamos rafa!
can u guys tell me why coppejans beats mahut???
As I have been too chicken to watch Rafa these last months I have also not read anything from the tennis media. Today I’ve had a bit of a binge read and some people are saying that Rafa has been a step slower than usual. Courier was saying that he thought Rafa could still have physical issues, others are saying it’s mental….does anyone have a view about this having actually watched his matches?!
thanks….
amy,
Jim Courier was saying that on the tennis channel when Rafa was playing in IW and Miami. He kept saying over and over that Rafa’s movement was not good, that it had not been good in the AO. That point I thought was absurd. The AO was Rafa’s first slam since coming back after six months off. He had very little preparation because he lost to someone early at Doha. Who was it, Berrer? So his movement would not have been great at that time.
However, Rafa has said himself at times that he doesn’t have his legs. He says it in his own way and I am not sure what he means. We have discussed it here previously. I do think at times Rafa has seemed a step slower, but then we see him moving like a gazelle. He’s been so up and down and inconsistent these days.
You said something in an earlier post about it having to do with mental fatigue. I think that is correct. The mind is so powerful. Whatever burnout Rafa is dealing with, whatever it might be, could be causing him to be a bit slower in his movement. I am of the opinion that it’s all mental. If there is anything going on physically, we have not been made aware of it by Rafa’s camp. It also could be part of the inevitable decline, the aging process. All great champions have to get older.
What exactly is the issue if Rafa is playing on Day 3? Folks – RG 1st round is played over 3 days..For all you know, Rafa may have asked Day 3 too to practice more.
Sanju,
You made a good point. Now I feel better.
But aren’t you going to carry on about the evil plotters of this tournament intending to sabotage Rafa?
They haven’t done a very good job, because Rafa has won nine titles here with ONE loss over the years! So if there have been efforts to do him in, they have been to no avail! 🙂
Rafa and Novaks QF match if it happens will be on Rafas birthday..Oh my goodness. A win will be the best birthday gift. I can’t imagine what a big story it will be.
Seven best of five matches over 13 days is much more difficult than over 15 days.
I’m sure @Sanju was being facetious, can’t believe that was a serious question.
It was..I dont understand the brouaha about him playing on Day 3..Whats the big deal about it? Have u thought they want a star to play on Philipp Chartier each of the 3 days and Rafa, Fed, Novak are the 3 stars. I am sure you know RG round 1 is played over 3 days.
Right because the tournament organizers have had such success in derailing Rafa over the years! NOT! 🙂
Right on cue, @Sanju’s “protector”, @nny, is in the house. Why, we all know @sanju cannot speak for himself, being the “little brown man” from Asia. He needs Big sister, @nny from America to speak for him.
Keep trolling, @nny…………….
That was slightly rascist RITB..Unwanted comment.
Little brown man from Asia..seriously?
I am more inclined to believe it was a comment made more in jest .
Wow! This is quite an insulting comment. I am used to the cheap shots in my direction, but the comment about sanju? That is over the line.
Bad taste. But what I would expect from RITB. As far as trolling, take a good look in the mirror before you go trashing others!
@Sanju, I’m a little Black woman from Africa, tard difficult for me to be racist, slightly or otherwise, to another person of colour, no?
No, no jest at all. I know when someone is being patronizing and yes, racist. To wit, when they keep inserting themselves in conversations which do not concern them, ostensibly to speak on behalf of someone they deem incapable of speaking on their own behalf, presuming a superiority they do not have. Twice recently, @nny has done exactly that when I was either in a conversation with you or responding to a post of yours as in above. @nny does not need to intercede on your behalf @Sanju. You are perfectly capable of speaking/standing up for yourself.
@nny is not your voice, nor is she your protector. To assume she is, the way she does, is patronizing and racist.
No offence to you, @Sanju.
You know all about insulting comments @nny. You insult me all the time, I’ve come to expect that from you.
Keep trolling.
Don’t buy it @sanju. A while back I called ritb out on her racist comments and she pulled the same alibi: That she is black and by default not a racist. Load of crap. She can’t prove to us that she is even black.
Federer will likely play his second round match the same day Rafa plays his first.
ritb,
Give me a break! What you call an insult, is someone disagreeing with you. That is something that you cannot and will not tolerate. You publicly called me out yesterday on another topic thread and I let it go. Why? Because of the garbage you just posted.
I am fed up with your insults and distortions and characterizations of me. Your patronizing and manipulative comments towards sanju are also unfortunate. Trying to throw the racist thing back on me, is repugnant and inappropriate. It’s despicable. Own what you say and don’t try to put it on anyone else. You wrote it, not me. You love to pretend to be the victim, but it’s all in your own mind.
I have had it up to here with your attitude towards me. It’s quite repugnant.
Troll on, @nny………go on.
Yep, my attitude is so repugnant you can’t help trolling me……….ROTFL!
Very likely. I can’t believe some ‘Rafa’ fans find this kind of scheduling not a big deal, and Rafa is not put in an disadvantage position.
Encroyable!!!
We need to find out how many times in last 10 years has Rafa played on Day 1? I think only in 2009 . He has never played on the 1st day, yet he won 9 titles here .And frankly from Wednesday onwards (start of 2nd round), everyone in one half plays on 1 day and other half next day. Feds second round match will only be played on Wednesday and Rafas on Thursday.
What difference does it make?
you ask … seriously?
Nadal will still get enough rest between matches that matter. So how is this such a big deal? Djokovic will also start on day 3.
7 matches in 13 days harder than 7 in 15. #math
Can all of them start on the same day? Not possible.
Again, is 2 days of rest better than one day of rest?
Not really. Ask Djokovic?
By the way, Rafa probably wont have to play 7 matches this year, if its about Rafa.
When Rafa was good, he won the tounament almost every year. Scheduling didnt have any impact. Similarly, if he loses this year, it wont be because of scheduling.
Non of which excuses nor explains the blatant favoritism every year at the French.
Hilarious!!!
Just because Rafa won the tournament almost every year does not mean he was not disadvantaged by the scheduling. He won in spite, not because, of the blatant handicapping.
Awww, cry me a river. It’s not. They’re pros. They’re used to it. Fed’s had it a lot worse with the second semifinal at the USO. Happens.
Open your eyes.
2nd SF at USO??? Who cares with a day off in between and he got to play during the cooler part of the day. A main part of why Djokovic lost was that very hot Saturday so playing the first semi was a disadvantage. Most likely Fed saw the forecast and requested the second semi.
Big surprise.
Indeed. Just because Rafa won every RG so far except the one time with shot knees does in itself in no way prove that the scheduling and draws were more or less fair.
Think this through quietly for a minute while doing your best to be as rational, logical and unbiased as you can be, and I don’t think you can come to any other conclusion.
Hahaha what? Fed is the one in need of more recovery time and he’s been stuck in the second semi final majority of the years he’s played. Unfortunately always in marquee matches that do nothing for him from a physical standpoint. It’s not one year. It’s nearly all the time. Looks like you need to practice what you preach, stop whining and learn the fact that playing first or second is not a cause for complaint for a professional. That is what being a professional means. And most players know it.
tenfan says: May 25, 2015 at 5:48 pm
“Hahaha what? Fed is the one in need of more recovery time ………”
And the RG tournament organisers fully agree with you, sire………..hence he played first.
If it was random, no problem. But Federer consistently is given the preferred scheduling whether it be his half playing first or playing at night on hot days.
I used to understand when either Federer was number 1 or was the defending champion but recently, when neither was the case, there are many examples of when he was still the first to start a tournament.
The most blatant example was the 2008 USO Super Saturday. All throughout the tournament, Rafa’s half played 1st and Roger’s half played their corresponding round the next day which I assumed was because Rafa was No. 1 at the time.
Nasty weather came on Super Saturday with scheduling in disarray. The first match should have followed suit with Rafa starting 1st but I was shocked to learn that, no, the tables would be turned and Roger would play Nole 1st.
As a result, the Rafa-Murray match was not completed and had to be finished on Sunday giving Roger more rest for the Finals. Would love to know the back-door scheduling that happened that weekend.
#NothingNew
Nole was “randomly” drawn into Fed’s half in every single h/c and grass slam from 2007 USO-2011 USO. 13 in a row until people figured out Nole had transformed into a better player than Fed.
The fact that the French Open bucked this “trend” makes the rigging even more obvious as Murray was a much weaker player on clay than Nole.
Nothing cherry picked about that.
Typical fedferazzi revisionism.
Shhhh…. delusion at work.
Hilarious!!!
At the US Open:
2009: Fed was No. 1, Fed defending champ – Fed plays Day 1, Rafa plays Day 3 (Fed plays his 2nd rnd match on Day 3!!!)
2010: Rafa was No. 1, Delpo defending champ – Fed plays on Day 1, Rafa on Day 2
2011: Nole was No. 1, Rafa was defending champ – Fed plays on Day 1, Rafa and Nole on Day 2
2012: Fed was No. 1, Nole defending champ – Fed plays Day 1, Nole plays day 2
2013: Nole was No. 1, Murray defending champ – Fed plays Day 1, Rafa Day 1, Nole and Murray day 2
2014: Nole was No. 1, Rafa was defending champ: Wow, must have been a clerical oversight, Nole played before. Heads must have rolled and pigs flew.
Wow five straight years regardless of rank or defending champ.
So, the “trend” or policy at the French and US Open is that Federer plays day 1.
Coincidentally, ESPN charged the USO for rig drawing in the past.
Nothing cherry picked there.
i agree that both Rafa and Nole got screwed with scheduling
Federer has started before Rafa the last five years.
Coincidence LOL.
chloro,
I did make the comment that Rafa has been able to win despite any so-called rigging and unfairness. Does it make it right? Absolutely not! What can be done about it? Do we just go on and on about it? That doesn’t change anything. But it does seem quite important to some that it be proven to be so.
I responded to your comment when it was revealed that Rafa would play on day 3. However, Novak is also playing on day 3. Would you agree that it is also unfair to him? or is it okay just because he’s playing well right now. We should at least be consistent about the outrage. I am not happy about the scheduling at all for Rafa. I already said that. I just prefer not to go on endlessly about it because nothing will change it. That is different from me saying that I like it or think it’s okay. I do not!
As with hawkeye, you are one of the people on this site who is able to discuss and disagree with respect and decency. You don’t try to harass or run anyone off the site should they dare to have a different opinion. I said that you both have integrity. I stand by that comment. I also have great appreciation for the fact that you can talk to me without resorting to name calling.
I agree that this is not coincidence.
nny,
re rafa and novak both playing on day 3…
We are talking about a single tournament here: RG 2015. In prior years Rafa was almost always so unbeatable there that scheduling makes little difference. Which does not mean that scheduling in favor of Federer did not make a difference to how far he got in this particular tournament (along with other tournaments).
At this particular tournament scheduling should not matter to Djokovic I agree. And this particular time it might matter to Rafa. And at this particular tournament a weak half on Federer’s ought to help him go deep in the tournament and even give him a chance, however small it may be at 34 to make it to the final. A very suspicious draw / scheduling situation.
how far he got in this particular tournament –> in this particular venue
The approach here to nurse Federer to victory is so obvious:
– Put Murray, Djokovic, Rafa and Ferrer in the half opposite Federer
– Have Fed play day 1 and Rafole on Day 3
– Have it such that Rafole have to beat the other in the quarter, THEN beat Murray before having to play Federer (who has had an extra day to rest).
The player playing first has a huge potential advantage if there are cumulative rain delays because that player is always first to get their match played before the delay and overall throughout the tournament gets more rest.
This is not rocket science (but is deliberate favouritism).
Pat,
Yes, I agree that both players have gotten a raw deal. Even though Novak has been playing well, it’s just as unfair for him as it is for Rafa.
Novak had transformed into a better player than everyone in 2011 itself in terms of his ranking. What took the USO so long to figure this out? You should really start wearing a tin-foiled hat now. As for 2008, the only mistake the organizers made was in not starting Fed-Nole and Nadal-Murray simultaneously on two different courts. But I’m guessing the logistics took a little bit of time to work out. Also, why on earth should Fed be scheduled second because of HEAT? New York heat is not even remotely comparable to Dubai, which is Federer’s regular training base. A guy who trains in Dubai with weights strapped to his ankles is getting scheduled second because of heat? That’s your hypothesis (because clearly, you don’t have proof)? Hear what you’re saying man. I bet even John Nash was more reasonable during his illness (and at least he had the excuse of being a genius).
13 straight non-clay slams is all the proof I need.
I feel sorry for those who struggle in simple statistics (unless you are fedfan).
#IgnoranceIsBliss
Let me ask you this. Why does Day 1 play affect you or Nadal? Barring 2009 USO, the overall schedule seems pretty normal to me. They want to open with the most popular guy on tour. It brings the money, it brings the fans and at the beginning of the tournament, when the match-ups aren’t so interesting, that is crucial. It’s good business. If I were a businessman I’d want to make profits. I would make profits by playing the guy who brings me the profits. Now let me ask you again? What is it about Day 1 play that makes you so uneasy? The idea that Nadal doesn’t get enough “respect” from the organizers? If he feels that way can he not take it up with them? He’s no martyr like I’ve said before. He just kicked out an umpire all on his own. So he’s no boy either. Why are you advocating for him causelessly? Nadal clearly doesn’t feel disrespected. He understands the way business is supposed to work because he knows where his pay comes from and respects it. I understand your antagonism toward the Parisian crowd. They can be rowdy. But nothing you say here makes a good case for the kind of allegations you’re trying to level.
P.S: Feel free to call me a troll, Fedbot or the other insults usually up your sleeves. But you and I both know I have a good counter-argument which is why you’re shifting goalspots constantly. You don’t have a standard premise upon which to build an argument.
Day 1 doesn’t affect me. I’m not the one who has to win seven matches in two less days than Federer.
Why does my opinion affect you? What allegations are unfair? You just said the preferred scheduling for Federer was a business decision which, had you read my posts more carefully, is exactly what I said.
Extra two days rest and significant advantage in getting your match in should inclement weather arise, continuously at the USO and FO almost every year along with cushy draws.
Federazzi propped up so-called GOAT.
However, many tennis greats both past and present including Sampras, Agassi, McEnroe, Murray and Djokovic do not agree that Federer is the GOAT.
Besides “Anonymous”, why do you care what I think. It is just my opinion.
I’m just looking for some semblance of fairness (since that is what is claimed).
I reserve troll, Fedbot, etc. for those posters that have been disrespectful to me. You haven’t earned that right yet.
#HopeThisHelps
Wow.. Nadal wall, huh? Federer is the best!
#GOAT #King #Fedmeister #Dontcounttherestout #Fedsdrawstilltough #thisisnttwitter
#FEDISTHEBEST #Allez
I mean it is no secret that Roland Garros is not giving its 9 champion the perks he deserves, hell they don’t even give him enough respect for that matter. I mean they refused to bump his seeding up this year saying his lower ranking is due to poor play and not because of injury time off. Hell but they did not even put him up in 2013 when his lower ranking was actually due to injury time off. So they are a bunch of hypocrites.
However I still don’t agree that Rafa playing on Day 3 is necessarily part of that conspiracy.
@Sanju, don’t you think Rafa playing on Day 1, say, would give him more time to recover in-between matches? Don’t you think that would be a welcome advantage? Okay, it is not their tradition, unlike Wimby, to have the defending champion opening proceedings but exceptions can be made, no?
What’s done is done, cannot be changed now but all this certainly plays into conspiracists’, (like me) hands!
How sure are we that Rafa himself did not ask for Day 3? He may well want to practice more.
Is Novak also not playing on Day 3?
And from 2nd round, everyone gets 1 day rest, so nothing major I feel.
Nobody’s sure, at least based on the information out there, or none thereof. Yes, Novak also is playing on Day 3. While I have seen some disgruntlement by Nolefans on this, it is not as vociferous as that by Rafans for obvious reasons. Nolefans are pretty confident about their man’s level right now and don’t think a Day or 2’s rest matters much to his expected good performance. Rafans, otoh, are pretty much fearing for their man given his apparent stamina issues of late………..
They shouldn’t have bumped his ranking. His play as of late hasn’t warranted it.
However, he does deserve a random draw and fair scheduling whereas fed got a dream draw and hand picked scheduling.
Nothing new.
^^+1
Did anybody else see the Eurosport UK slot after play finished last night? It purported to be a ‘look behind the scenes’ of how scheduling is decided. Load of cod’s wallop. We were expected to believe all the players were consulted on how they felt about their decisions. We all know what Federer wants he he tends get!! Wilander quite rightly commented afterwards at the end of the day the voices that carry the most weight are those of the TV stations.
Tuesday’s (May 26) schedule:
http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/schedule/p_schedule8.pdf
Thanks Gussie. That’s an early start for Rafa, Vamos Champ!
[polldaddy poll=8890606]
People can get upset all they want, but in the end there is nothing that can be done about it. Every year this goes on. Last year if memory serves, Novak was the beneficiary of a supposed ideal draw with Fed, Rafa and Murray all lumped on the other side of the draw. So different players can have these so-called easy draws.
If Rafa won in spite of it, then that’s a testament to his greatness because he doesn’t need favors. That’s not his problem right now. There was a segment on the tennis channel last night with Paul Annacone analyzing Rafa at this time. I thought he made some excellent observations about what is happening. He believes that it’s mental. He pointed out especially in the match with Murray and other recent losses, that Rafa’s shots are quite inconsistent. He can hit a brilliant winner and then just dump a shot into the net or hit one way too short. I don’t remember all that he said, but that was the part that stood out to me. He’s always been extremely respectful to Rafa in his comments.
I just find it interesting that there is the tendency here to rationalize the fact that Novak is also playing on day 3. It’s not big deal because he’s playing well? I do not get that kind of thinking. Even when Rafa came into RG in great form, there was the same whining and complaining about unfairness.
There is no proof of a conspiracy. Just speculation. I also reiterate that favorable draws and scheduling has not helped Fed these days.
No there is plenty of proof in draw rigging at the USO and similar practise at other slams so if it can happen once, it can happen again.
#ScovilleJenkins
“CONCLUSION: The probability that the two incredible coincidences (i.e., hand‐draws of seeded players at the three Grand Slams, and the computer generated draws of unseeded players at the US Open) might happen simultaneously is 1 in 32 BILLION. These figures are a strong indicator of fixing and merit detailed investigation. ”
http://www.playthegame.org/fileadmin/image/knowledgebank/Tennisdraws_Katarina_Pijetlovic.pdf
An “Outside the Lines” analysis of 10 years of men’s and women’s Grand Slam draws shows the top two men’s and women’s seeds in the U.S. Open — on average — faced easier opponents in the first round than is statistically probable if the draws were truly random.
http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/6850893/espn-analysis-finds-top-seeds-tennis-us-open-had-easier-draw-statistically-likely
Where there is smoke, there is usually fire.
Tennis is a business and what would motivate any business to leave critical business variables within their control (such as draws and scheduling) to chance?
Don’t be so naive.
#TheTruthIsOutThere
Some poster called hawkeye. Funny given the myopic perspective.
expected
Do you remember the 2007 Wimbledon match between Soderling and Nadal that last several days due to rains? Roger arrived at the finals much more rested than his opponent.
If over a number of years one player almost always gets slam schedules that start on the first days and thus tend to be less affected by delays, have fewer back-to-back playing days… in some of the slams this will make no difference, but in others it will… over a number of years it adds up to a meaningful difference.
Especially when combined with consistently favorable draws (e.g. Djokovic rather than Murray always in Federer’s half for several years until some time in 2011 when Djokovic finally became a difficult opponent / matchup for Federer).
Difference being increased likelihood of getting the trophy.
I understand that this kind of argument over the schedule at any one single slam seems weak and meaningless. And that the preferences of the paying tv channels may be a factor. However, if you do look at Roger’s schedules (start on day 1, play during the day or at night?) combined with the draw (who would you prefer not to be in your draw / quarter, sir? Who would you like to see in the quarter of a difficult opponent, sire?) and repeat over a number of years, then we are looking at a deliberate and unfair advantage.
I don’t think you need to be a rafan or bitter or biased to hold this view.
chloro,
I well remember the 2007 Wimbledon because that was the first time that I saw Rafa play. I finally broke down and started watching tennis after about a two year hiatus. I had to check out this Spanish player named Nadal that everyone was talking about.
You are absolutely correct regarding that match with Rafa and Sod that played out over several days due to the rain. I was just coming back from my hiatus because tennis was so boring with Fed dominating. This was my first reality check with scheduling. I was very angry about what Rafa had to go through and always believed that it might well have cost him the win against Fed in the final that year. You will get no argument from me about that one!
This is why Rafa’s 2009 AO final win over Fed is my favorite. Because Rafa had everything going against him. He had that marathon battle with Verdasco in the semis and then one day’s rest to Fed’s two days. He had to be at a disadvantage coming into that match. Rafa himself said that he was somewhat lightheaded. That match will always stay in my mind, because no matter what the tournament organizers did that might have helped Fed, in the end Rafa triumphed. Should he have had to play in those conditions? No!
I do not think we are that far apart in our thinking. I have been very upset at times because of favorable scheduling for Fed. I have talked about it at length here. I guess one say that the mere fact of Rafa being able to win with this kind of disadvantage, is even more evidence of his greatness. He has had to deal with a lot.
You make some compelling points and I am not about to disagree with you. Again, for me it’s all about someone making an argument without resorting to petty insults and derisive cheap shots. I need to read a rationale argument without the unnecessary emotion, condescending, patronizing and hostile attitude.
I thank you! 🙂
It’s not being naïve. We’ve had this discussion in the past. I conceded that it can happen. So there is no need to go over it again. However, I will say that you make your points in a respectful, reasonable way. You don’t make it personal like some others on this site who supposedly have a problem with me, yet can’t stop talking about me in extremely unflattering terms. You know who I mean! 🙂
Cheryl Murray wrote a blog about it on TT. I think her date was from a study by ESPN regarding some draw rigging at the US Open for Fed. I think they studied the rankings of his early round opponents and quantified the statistical likelihood of him drawing players ranked as low as in the hundreds or whatever. I thought that was enlightening.
In our past discussions, I brought up the fact that the matches on court cannot be rigged. So in that sense a player’s destiny can still be in his hands to an extent. They can’t rig the outcome of a match.
Wouldn’t you at least agree that this supposed rigging and favorable draws for Fed has not achieved the desired result? As I have said, at this stage of his career he’s going to need more than that. I am not trying to justify this kind of behavior. I do understand that tennis is a business and there are huge profits at stake. That’s why the commercial networks in the U.S. have had so much clout when it comes to scheduling of matches. The most glaring example of their influence was the creation of Super Saturday at the USO. That certainly put the players at a disadvantage, but was deemed necessary for network profit. Finally they have changed the schedule.
Thanks for having the decency to be respectful of me. That is something I value. I am more than willing to discuss this and hear someone who is not going to engage in personally insulting attacks or gratuitous cheap shots.
With the massive amount of favorable decisions (draws, schedules) over so many tournaments over at least 8 years I find it hard to believe it has not tilted the scales in favor of more titles for Federer.
Of course more so in those years where Federer could better take advantage of any favors, i.e. prior to and after his slump years (around the time he was 30).
To me this is common sense. To others not, I get that.
Okay, so Fed has won more titles. Now what? Where do we go from here?
I have common sense. I have reason. I can see reality. In fact, I have acknowledged much of this in past discussions. So I repeat, what is the point? What should Rafa do about it? Retire? He has managed to deal with any inequities and continues to participate in this sport.
What is your answer. You have gone to great lengths to make your point. What happens now? I would like to know.
nny,
If the scheduling and draws have been very often deliberately unfair… true, nothing we or even the other players can do about it…. but is it worth noticing, thinking about, talking about among each other: in my view: sure!
In sports things there are rules and expectations many of which revolve specifically to make the competition fair. When some teams or individual players are deliberately advantaged, especially if this is not widely known or acknowledged… this is an interesting situation to talk about.
Just as in elections: if some elections are partially rigged…if it happens in a more or less dictatorial country or nation or city then nothing can be done about it, while if it happens in a more or less democratic place then individuals and organizations try to address it to help the flawed democracy to be less rather than more flawed.
In the case of the ATP it seems money talks louder than fairness.
This is the case in almost any business.
Nothing new.
Wimbledon 2012 (when the roof was prematurely closed in the final) and USO 2008 beneficial scheduling to Federer having his final finish prior to Nadal-Murray are two examples.
Having Djokovic “randomly” placed in 13 straight non-clay slams was an obvious targeted benefit to Federer. This streak magically stopped after Nole’s metamorphosis in 2011.
His draw in 2010 at the AO was incredibly soft drawing Davydenko in his quarter (whose a known weak best of 5 player). He got the lesser (at the time) of two evils in Nole in his half instead of Murray (part of the 13 straight non-clay slam streak in which that occurred).
So yes it has helped him in the past. But it’s not even my point.
My point is that it is done to begin with and everyone turns a blind eye especially the federazzi GOAT-driven media.
+1, and especially on your last sentence
If it were not done to begin with… things would be much more fair.
If the vast majority of writers fans and others … who collectively either turn a blind eye (experts) or not notice (fan-stardust in the eye)… would notice and publicly discuss… then said deliberate advantages might by halted.
The guys in his draw he faced leading up to the QF were Andreev, Hanescu, Montanes and Hewitt, all fellow cronies either beat up or clay specialists.
And then Davydenko in the QF (compared to Murray for Rafa).
Because Fed easily handled Nole on hard and grass with a significalnt h2h lead and struggled against Muzza on hard courts with a losing h2h in ATP events, a great “random” streak emerged in non-clay slams. The trend was slightly reversed at the French Open because Murray was relatively inept on clay and Nole was a better player.
But far be it from me to pull your head out of the sand. I guess Federer likes “sitting” on the beach.
hawkeye,
So what can be done about it? Did anyone ever say that life was fair? Even in our own lives we have to deal with unfairness on a daily basis in our own jobs. What is the solution? Also, why would Rafa not be the beneficiary of this since he is an icon in the sport and immensely popular? Do the powers who determine this not see his appeal?
The instances that have been mentioned are well known to me. So now what? If you are right, is that the whole point here? Or is there something constructive that can be done?
1. Awareness. People continuing to raise it up the flag poll until the message is heard.
2. No.
3. Protest. Awareness.
4. Nowhere near as popular as Federer. Try asking a group of people out of the general public to name a tennis player. Most can’t name anyone and the rest say Federer.
5. Not to the same extent as Federer. Not. Even. Close. I’ve seen Nadal in Poker Stars ads but Federer I’ve seen in countless commercials (Gillette, Rolex, Lindt, Net Jets). I know both have many other sponsorships but I am going on the quantity of ads here in North America. Rafa’s appeal is to the young. Fed’s appeal is to the 1%.
Yeah sure. Me being right. That’s the whole point here. Just ask gussie-bot. Or see above. Your choice.
This post is a classic example of cherry picking. 1) 2008 USO was an anomaly due to the weather and the organizers were in genuine dilemma. Federer has been in the second semi ever since. In fact 2011 FO semi was played second and was almost moved to the next day. So this is a common phenomenon. 2) Lol, Murray? Murray had ZERO slams up until that point and the only year he’s managed to beat Federer in a major was 2013, Federer’s absolute worst and he needee 5 gruelling sets to do it. He can do whatever he wants in masters. He’s never beaten Federer in major until Fed seriously declined. Case closed. 3) Regarding Novak, look at you lie through your teeth. Novak and Federer have been drawn countless times since 2011. Have you forgotten that Semi ? It was Federer and not Nadal who prevented Novae from winning the 2011 FO and a calender slam . They met again there in 2012. Drawn to meet once again. Then 2012 Wimbledon. Fed was beating guys five or six years younger to win his 17 lth major. As to the roof? That is the one thing that helps grass play the way it should be played. And bias you say? Look at the number of incorrect line calls made against Federer in that very much. You’re a propagandist for sure. Too bad I saw you telling your lies and am calling you out now. 🙂
who is this in response to? I don’t feel like reading all the comments.
May 25, 2015 at 4:06 pm,
The last time I saw Fed in Gillette’s commercials was before Tiger Woods’ affairs were exposed. (They posed together in commercials.) 😆
“1) 2008 USO was an anomaly due to the weather and the organizers were in genuine dilemma.”
No, they used the rain delay to play Federer first when Nadal was supposed to play first and moved the Nadal match to another court.
“2) Lol, Murray? Murray had ZERO slams up until that point and the only year he’s managed to beat Federer in a major was 2013, Federer’s absolute worst and he needee 5 gruelling sets to do it. He can do whatever he wants in masters. He’s never beaten Federer in major until Fed seriously declined. Case closed. ”
No. Not case closed. Your point is irrelevant. Because of Murrray’s dominant winning h2h over Fed and Fed’s dominant h2h vs Nole, Federer avoided drawing Murray in his half in 13 straight non-clay slams, a 1 in 8192 random probability. Math is obviously not your forte. Delusion however…
“3) Regarding Novak, look at you lie through your teeth. Novak and Federer have been drawn countless times since 2011. Have you forgotten that Semi ? It was Federer and not Nadal who prevented Novae from winning the 2011 FO and a calender slam . ”
I said in NON-CLAY slams. RG is played on clay. Hope this helps.
“They met again there in 2012. Drawn to meet once again. Then 2012 Wimbledon. Fed was beating guys five or six years younger to win his 17 lth major.
You can’t read. I said NON-CLAY and up until after Nole 2.0 arrived. That’s when the “random” trend stopped.
“As to the roof? That is the one thing that helps grass play the way it should be played. And bias you say? Look at the number of incorrect line calls made against Federer in that very much. You’re a propagandist for sure. Too bad I saw you telling your lies and am calling you out now. :)”
Tennis is meant to be played outdoors (including on grass which is grown outdoors).
You have called me a liar with zero to back it up with.
Typical federazzi fedbot fanboy.
Too funny!!!
#YoureWelcomeMyFan
#Humble
The level of creativity involved in drawing up conspiracy theories (which could’ve been used more productively instead) is absolutely mind-boggling on this thread. :p This is what makes the site entertaining though. And it’s free. ;D
That’s why fedfans think Federer is the most creative. They have no creativity of their own!
Hilarious!!!
#YoureWelcomeMyFan
Oh man there goes the VB again. 1) The organizers had a tough decision to make. They scheduled the popular semi final first to make sure the crowds stuck around. Federer had a ridiculous amount of crowd support at the USO that year. 2) Oh man the “H2H” again. Since you’re fond of numbers let me ask you? How many majors did Murray win all those years? How many times did he even seriously challenge Federer in the slam matches they did meet in? Zero. 3) grass was also supposed to play fast. It was never supposed to be back boarder heaven. And what about the wrong line calls that kept going again Federer? We’re they a part of some grand conspiracy too? :p
Are you saying that my head is in the sand? Just asking for clarification. I don’t see it that way.
That’s all that matters.
What anyone else thinks about you is both outside your control and immaterial.
Truer words were never spoken! In light of some comments about myself from the usual suspects, it’s quite apropos. I know who I am and that’s all that matters. If I really cared that much about what others say here, the enmity that I read all too often then I would not still be here.
hawkeye,
Please don’t suggest that I ask augusta! Perish the thought! Now you know I am not putting you in that category. I am merely asking the point of the ongoing discussion. Oh and nobody ever said that we cannot have this discussion. It happens all the time.
So now you have given us awareness. The next step would be to somehow protest. I am thinking about what happened with the New England Patriots and Tom Brady, i.e. deflategate in the states. The commissioner ultimately fined the NE Patriots one million dollars and suspended Brady for four games. The owner of the Pats has accepted this decision. As far as I know, Brady is still planning to appeal. This was an example of a quarterback trying to gain an unfair advantage and breaking a rule. Maybe it’s minor to some, but there is a principle.
The NFL took action. Is this what you would like to see happen in tennis. I am asking. Please do not assume that I necessarily saying it’s about being right. I am asking questions.
nativenewyorker7 says:
May 25, 2015 at 5:22 pm
—hawkeye,
Please don’t suggest that I ask augusta!—
============================================
Please don’t drag me into your fights!!!
For a very long time now on TT there have been only rare trolling posts, and only by a few small number of non-frequent posters.
I find it interesting that it is in the last weeks, now that Rafa’s struggles to be mentally competitive and consistent are broadly known… that this trend has changed: trolling posts by non-regular posters are on the increase.
augusta,
Please read hawkeye’s post @ 4:06 pm in which he made reference to you as “gussie-bot”! That is what I was responding to in my post. I know that “gussie” is your nickname here and he calls you “bot” because you keep posting the same thing over and over again even when it has no relevance.
Read more carefully before you make a baseless accusation. I did NOT bring you up! I was merely responding, even though I understood haweye was being somewhat facetious.
nativenewyorker7 says:
May 25, 2015 at 9:07 pm
—Please read hawkeye’s post @ 4:06 pm in which he made reference to you as “gussie-bot”! …he calls you “bot” because…—
=======================================
And this is his true self-description:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CFiEqaXUMAAPWlI.png
I must say, you fulfill his wishes! LOL
For someone who claims they do not CARE what I said, you feed me very well gussie-bot.
Your actions suggest that you are lying to yourself. The worst kind of lie.
Hilarious!!!
https://tenngrand.com/2015/05/14/rome-qf-previews-and-picks-nadal-vs-wawrinka-ferrer-vs-goffin/comment-page-2/#comment-193588
chloro,
I know to whom you are making reference, but I was called a “troll” here yesterday, more than once. Some people throw that word around carelessly without thinking. I only reserve that word for the worst of the worst. There were a few on TT. People we all remember too well! 🙂
In my last post above I am referring to a few new posters on TT, from the last few days and weeks.
I suspect that they are from Tennis-X and/or tennis warehouse where you are banned if you speak of weak eras, Federer drawing Novak 13 times in a row in non-clay slams, or suggesting that anyone else than Roger is GOAT.
Here the playing field is level.
The treatment of Rafael Nadal by the orginisers of Roland Garros is opposedly equal to the his success in it.
Let’s say Rafa beats Nole… what does everyone think about Rafa and AM match?
That, win or lose, Federer will be the beneficiary.
#ByDesign
Pat,
I am not ready to think that far ahead. But we do know from their history that a meeting in the quarterfinals will take it out of both players. I just happened to catch the tennis channel’s replay of last year’s RG final. It was poignant in reminding me of the quality of tennis that Rafa played in that match. But I was also reminded how these two take it out of each other. They both looked like they were ready to drop in the hot conditions. Novak was sick to his stomach and Rafa had some kind of cramping in the fourth set.
In that sense, I do believe that hawkeye is correct. Maybe even Murray, who knows! It just can’t bode well for either of them to then have to play Murray and possibly Fed in the final.
Not even thinking that far? Novak is main test, however if Novak test is passed..Andy wont be a walkover either.
chloro,
Yes, I do understand to whom you were referring. They do seem to be popping up now and I do not think it’s a coincidence. Yes, they are like the ones we had on TT. For the life of me, I cannot understand why it has to get ugly.
It’s unfortunate but kind of expected. I guess they want to rub our noses in it. I wonder if they might be a few who have chosen to join us from dear old tennis-x!
Andy Murray says:
“elsewhere, andy said the court plays very slow with a low bounce:
“”That court in particular, Philippe Chatrier, is very slow, extremely slow. I have never felt it like that before,” “”When I practiced on the outside courts and the sun is out, it’s pretty quick, high bouncing.
“Suzanne Lenglen is a little bit slower than the outside courts, but still, it’s not that slow. But centre court (is) very low bouncing, which is strange.”
Slow and low bounce seems to suit Djokovic and Federer, no?
#ByDesign
Hahaha! Watching Muzza play yesterday I definitely thought the courts were slow, very slow. There was no penetration whatsoever. Not surprised to hear Muzza confirming this.
Talk about a loaded deck! Not leaving anything to chance are they, our French friends? Novak and Rafa meet in the quarters, they will be on court the whole day slugging each other out under those slow conditions. Advantage Fed.
Interestingly, when Rafa was asked about Fed’s unfavourable comments about the RG balls and court speeds Rafa shrugged his shoulders and said change is normal after playing Rome and Madrid, always the same, change that is.
That’s the attitude my man! Just accept……………
Low bounce definitely suits Djokovic more in my opinion. I think Fed would prefer low bouncing faster courts but hey, if your 2 main rivals tire each other out……….anything can happen, no?
Vamos!
How can clay bounce low? What have they done? Goodness
However very slow is not supposed to suit Fed too.
Maybe its all done to suit Djokovic 🙂
BTW same comments came last year too.. slow courts..low bounce. I think it also depends on the weather of the day. If its hot, it bounces well.
BTW whats weather forecast for Wednesday June 3?
the forecast for June 3 is sunny, Sanju.
Well, both federer and Murray are saying the conditions are ‘dead’ on centre court so there must be something.
Slower and low bouncing is comparison with other clay courts so it is relative. Hypothetically, these conditions are not conducive to rafa’s game that much but let’s wait for rafa to play and decide for himself. He did not say much about the change in conditions in his pre-tournament presser and as Sanju said, it also depends on the weather. The weather in Andy’s match was not so warm so….
Why would a GS prepare a dead court? Fail to understand. I mean if you have to just pass the ball from 1 end to another..it will not benefit anyone.
Full sunny VR or sunny in parts? It is hot and humid too?
And what about June 5 and 7? I am being greedy I know 🙂
Sanju, it will be ‘sunny’, ‘mostly sunny’ ‘partly cloudy’ on June 3 as per three different weather forecasts so it is good. Chances of rain are 10% so all good as long as no rain.
June 5 and June 7 are also mostly sunny.
Yes, we are being greedy. Let’s focus on rafa’s upcoming match lol
the Paris weather blows in from the Atlantic Ocean with no mountains in the way… makes it pretty difficult to predict this far in advance for a city where it rains or is cloudy pretty often…
perhaps this forecast means there are no weather conditions across much of the Northern Atlantic that would give rise to much cloudy weather 8 days from now: can the forecast really be that accurate?
we could also try our hand at forecasting the “weather” in the tens of metres surrounding the court if it turns out to be a rafole quarter
last night I was imagining if it would be possible for Nole to be bumped out of RG prior June 3 by someone else…. what are the chances of that ? 🙂
15 day weather forecast for Paris:
http://paris.lachainemeteo.com/meteo-france/ville/previsions-meteo-paris-3903-0.php
A slower court benefits Djokovic.
A dead ball with low bounce benefits Federer vs Nadal as Rafa’s spinny forehand will not bounce as high to Federer’s BH.
This is intended to complement Fed’s cupcake draw and preferred scheduling.
Just desperate.
#ByDesign
RT @linzsports: “I want to start a http://Change.org petition to keep Boris Becker from ever wearing orange again. #nothiscolor”
Where do I sign??
if Rafa passes Djokovic nobody and nothing will stop him…slow courts, low bouncing, Andy rested and full of energy…nothing would pose a threat for Rafa if he passed Novak…but atm considering the form of each it is a huge mountain to climb for our Rafa…
Vamos!
the silver lining if there is one to rafa’s current hardships is how amazing la decima would be this year of all years…
if he could win this year at age 28/29 on the toughest slam (not so contentious a view, this ‘toughest’ claim) in the condition he is in…
this would top AO ’09…
the ’13 comeback…
and, arguably this would top … reestablishing a positive H2H after 7 consecutive losses to the only opponent who has been truly tough (in recent years) for Rafa to defeat repeatedly … something, mind, roger never came close to doing against his own toughest opponent
of course you can add to this getting (we hope against impossible hope) all the additional obstacles Lady Luck (LL)has put in his path this year
(LL: she speaks French, is from the first arrondissement (Ile St Louis if you please), does not tolerate fairness or courtesy towards any Spanish players and less so towards the nicest ones among them, and she likes Lindt chocolates, Nespresso, Rolex watches and a host of other fine Swiss luxuries, including those occasionally prone to haircuts that cost more than two Nespresso machines)
Schedule for Thursday, 28 May:
http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/schedule/p_schedule10.pdf
Thanks Gussie. So, what is this, Rafa on Chatrier, again? RG officials being contrarian? Trying to show Rafa some respect? Oh I get it, this is their way of showing us cynics the finger! At this point, I am suspicious of every RG move re Rafa…………
Grudgingly, I am happy………….
Or they REALLY want to make sure Rafa advances so they have their marquee quarterfinal. They will not be denied the ritual bull-slaughtering by the matador du jour……
Well, it’s not as if Rafa “always” plays his 2nd round match on Lenglen as some might misremember.
mew
May 27, 2015 at 2:21 pm,
Rafa played 50 % of his R1&R2 matches on the Suzanne Lenglen court in 2009 – 2014.
The media like to cheery pick player statements and take them out of context to give stories the slant they want to generate the maximum conflict.
That is why I prefer to read the full transcripts myself for the proper context. (They are conveniently unavailable in recent years.)
No wonder players have to be guarded about what they say and then are routinely criticized for being boring.
Here is also what Roger said regarding Nadal’s request (but was left out because it didn’t fit the story):
“In his situation there are maybe enough umpires out there that it’s not such a big problem for the ATP or the umpire or the player,” Federer said.
“The players understand that not every request can be granted. you can make a request, but it doesn’t mean you’re going to get it. I think that’s okay.”
Well done Roger! Right again.