2015 French Open draw analysis

There will be no Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal French Open final in 2015. In fact, Djokovic vs. Nadal cannot even take place in the semifinals. If the two rivals advance through just four rounds, they will collide in an all-too early quarterfinal showdown at Roland Garros.

That, of course, was the big news when the draw ceremony for the season’s second Grand Slam was conducted on Friday morning. As for the rest of the bracket, Andy Murray and David Ferrer also find themselves in a loaded top half. On the other side, Roger Federer, Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori, and the rest of the contenders cannot complain about the hands they have been dealt.

Djokovic’s quarter

Naturally, this should be called the Djokovic-Nadal quarter. The Spaniard’s precipitous fall outside the top four of the world rankings left him at the mercy of the French Open draw and as luck would have it he has been lumped in the same section of the bracket as the undisputed best player in the world. Something will have to give when—or if—Djokovic and Nadal clash in the quarterfinals. Djokovic is 35-2 this season and 22-0 in his last matches. He has not lost since February. Nadal’s current form is dreadful by comparison, but he is 66-1 lifetime on the Parisian clay with nine titles.

Who can derail the highly-anticipated meeting? Probably not anyone in the top half of this section. Bernard Tomic, Djokovic’s nearest seed, is least comfortable on the slow stuff. He would only present a danger on either a hard court or grass, and even then his challenge would be minimal. Either Kevin Anderson or Richard Gasquet will likely face the top-seeded Serb in the last 16. Nadal, on the other hand, could have a tough second-round battle on his hands with Alexandr Dolgopolov or Nicolas Almagro. The winner of a first-rounder between Grigor Dimitrov and Jack Sock will be favored to face Nadal in round four.

Best first-round matchup – Alexandr Dolgpolov vs. Nicolas Almagro

This is one of the most intriguing openers even without considering what is in store for the winner. Throw that into the equation no first-rounder is bigger than Dolgopolov vs. Almagro. The head-to-head series stands at an even 2-2, with Almagro leading 2-1 on clay (including 1-0 at the French Open, having prevailed in the 2010 first round). Both men are slowly rounding back into form after missing much of the 2014 campaign due to injury.

Best potential second-round matchup – (27) Bernard Tomic vs. (WC) Thanaski Kokkinakis
Best potential third-round matchup – (10) Grigor Dimitrov vs. Borna Coric

Possible surprises – With the top two title favorites in this quarter, there is hardly any room for anyone else to make noise. But the group of eight that includes seeds Dimitrov and Tommy Robredo could send an unseeded floater to the second week of the tournament. The Bulgarian’s draw is downright disastrous—and not just because he is near Nadal and Djokovic. In addition to opening against Sock, Dimitrov could run into either Pablo Carreno Busta or Victor Estrella Burgos in round two. Sock, Carreno Busta, Estrella Burgos, and the Borna Coric vs. Sam Querrey winner all have at least an outside chance of reaching the last 16.

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Murray’s quarter

As if the Djokovic-Nadal quarter is not already ridiculous enough, the top half becomes even more loaded when the second section is taken into account. Joining Murray and Ferrer is what is without question the second toughest quarter are Marin Cilic, John Isner, David Goffin, and Nick Kyrgios. Cilic is a shadow of his 2014 U.S. Open-winning self and Goffin is not as hot as he was last summer, but Isner and Kyrgios are especially dangerous.

Of the top two seeds, Ferrer should enjoy an easier trek to the quarterfinals. The seventh-ranked Spaniard is expected to cruise past Lukas Lacko in the first round and his nearest seed is Viktor Troicki—who would be more dangerous on a different surface. Murray, meanwhile, is on course to meet whoever emerges from a tough opening-round date between Vasek Pospisil and Joao Sousa. Murray could then run into Kyrgios in the last 32. The fast-rising Aussie may not be 100 percent physically right now, but he has demonstrated that he can be an absolute force on every surface—especially on the biggest stages in tennis.

Best first-round matchup — Vasek Pospisil vs. Joao Sousa

This matchup pits one man who has been getting too much rest against another who may not have a long enough break going into Roland Garros. Pospisil suffered an ankle injury after colliding with Sock during doubles action in Madrid and has not played since. The 51^st-ranked Canadian has not won a match since beating Juan Martin Del Potro in Miami. Sousa, on the other hand, will contest the Geneva final against Bellucci on Saturday. If Pospisil has an edge in the talent department, Sousa will enjoy an advantage on clay. As long as Pospisil is at or close to 100 percent, this will be a good one.

Best potential second-round matchup – (23) Leonardo Mayer vs. Jerzy Janowicz
Best potential third-round matchup – (16) John Isner vs. (17) David Goffin

Possible surprises — As well as Murray and Ferrer are playing in 2015, they are far from a slam-dunk to dominate this quarter of the bracket. Although he is 10-0 on clay this season, the third-ranked Scot is largely unproven at the French Open. He has reached the semifinals twice but promptly got eradicated by Nadal on each occasion. Ferrer has cooled off considerably since capturing three titles earlier this year. Isner, who has been stellar since a terrible first two months in 2015, is coming off perfect preparation in Nice: he won a pair of matches to reach the semis then lost to Dominic Thiem (meaning he will have plenty of rest prior to Paris). It would not be shocking to see the 6’10’’ American make a run to the semis.

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Berdych’s quarter

If there is any kind of balance in such a severely-skewed bracket, it comes with the fact that the weakest of the top four seeds (Berdych) drew the second most daunting 5-8 seed (Nishikori). Berdych is in fine form this season, but his lifetime record at Roland Garros is a modest 17-11 and he has suffered five first-round defeats. Although Nishikori has never advanced past the fourth round of this event, a new and improved Nishikori has been on display ever since the 2014 U.S. Open. He is 31-7 in 2015 and 10-2 on clay (with his two setbacks on the red stuff coming to Djokovic and Murray).

For the most part, this quarter is thoroughly uninspiring from top to bottom. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Fabio Fognini are the two men with the talent to compete against Berdych and Nishikori, but Fognini (for mental reasons) has been a disaster against everyone except Nadal this year and Tsonga (for physical reasons) is in the midst of a major struggle. But if Nishikori somehow loses early (for example, to Thomaz Bellucci in the second round or Fernando Verdasco in the third round), this section would get really interesting really fast.

Best first-round matchup — Juan Monaco vs. Federico Delbonis

It will be an all-Argentine affair when Monaco and Delbonis collide in Paris. They faced each other for the first times in 2014, when Delbonis prevailed on the clay courts of Stuttgart before Monaco got the job done on the hard courts of Shenzhen. Monaco, who is coming off a quarterfinal performance in Nice, lost in the opening round of four straight tournaments to begin they year but does not have a single first-round setback since (a span of nine events). Delbonis is in solid form on the slow stuff with a recent Challenger title in Sarasota and a semifinal showing in Geneva.

Best potential second-round matchup – Fabio Fognini vs. Benoit Paire
Best potential third-round matchup – (11) Feliciano Lopez vs. (19) Roberto Bautista Agut

Possible surprises — Chances are good that it will be Berdych vs. Nishikori in the quarterfinals. Berdych is the more vulnerable of the two, but his side of the quarter is easier (unless Fognini suddenly finds some motivation). Nishikori—now that he has shown an ability to stay healthy—is the more reliable of the two, but his nearby competition is stronger. Bellucci and Verdasco could be tough, just as the Monaco-Delbonis winner could challenge Feliciano Lopez and Roberto Bautista Agut in their pod of eight. If Monaco survives round one, look for him to do some damage in Paris.

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Federer’s quarter

Federer could not have asked for a better draw. Either Djokovic or Nadal will be gone prior to the semifinals and the 33-year-old Swiss also avoided Murray in his half of the bracket. Moreover, Federer’s 5-8 seed is fellow Swiss Stan Wawrinka, whom the 17-time Grand Slam champion positively owns. After opening with lucky loser Alejandro Falla, Federer will face either Marcel Granollers or qualifier Matthias Bachinger. Next up for the 2009 winner would likely be the Ivo Karlovic-Marcos Baghdatis winner. In other words, Federer should not have to get out of second gear throughout the first week.

There is one potential roadblock for Paris’ No. 2 seed prior to the semis and it comes in the form of familiar foe Gael Monfils. The Frenchman blew a two-set lead against Federer at the 2014 U.S. Open but eventually destroyed the Swiss (who was less than 100 percent because of a back problem) in the Davis Cup final. This time around, however, it is Monfils who is dealing with injury issues—so he may not be as big of a problem as he otherwise would be. Monfils could meet Nice finalist Dominic Thiem in the third round. Wawrinka, meanwhile, is on a collision course for a third-round rematch with Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. The Spaniard upset Wawrinka in last year’s first round.

Best first-round matchup — (25) Ivo Karlovic vs. Marcos Baghdatis

The quality of this one would obviously be superior on a fast hard court or grass. But no matter the surface, Karlovic-Baghdatis should always be competitive—just as it was earlier this season indoors in Zagreb, where the Cypriot survived 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(7). Neither man has played much on clay this year. Karlovic’s record on the current European swing is 1-2. Baghdatis is also 1-2 after losing his Geneva opener to Bellucci 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-3.

Best potential second-round matchup – (21) Pablo Cuevas vs. Dominic Thiem
Best potential third-round matchup – (8) Stan Wawrinka vs. (26) Guillermo Garcia-Lopez

Possible surprises — Monfils in the semis—heck, Monfils in the final—is not out of the question. Is it unlikely? Of course. But it’s possible. The Frenchman should coast through his first two matches even if he is less than 100 percent and he really should not lose to either Thiem or Cuevas at home in France under any circumstances. By the time he runs into Federer, the 13^th seed will have three outings—and plenty of confidence—under his belt. On the other side of this section, watch out for Garcia-Lopez. The other three seeds (Wawrinka, Ernests Gulbis, and Gilles Simon) are all either slumping and/or hurt. An in-form GGL could be headed for his first slam quarterfinal at 31 years old.

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