Australian Open qualifying gets underway on Wednesday in Melbourne. Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Joey Hanf of The Tennis Nerds make their predictions for the 16 men who will play their way into the main draw.
Qualifying draw on the Australian Open website
Ricky:
1) Jarmere Jenkins – The winner of the first-round match between fellow Americans Jenkins and Rajeev Ram is my pick to end up qualifying. Ram may be the favorite, but Jenkins has always played well in Australia (albeit at the Challenger level).
2) Steve Darcis – The story of the second section is two oft-injured veterans in Darcis and Jurgen Melzer. Darcis off to a stellar–and healthy–start to 2015 with a Challenger title in Noumea, whereas Melzer lost his Brisbane opener to Martin Klizan.
3) Benoit Paire – Whoever emerges from the Paire vs. Elias Ymer first-rounder should go on to get the job done. Ymer will be tough, but Paire looked like he was in at least decent form at the Hopman Cup.
4) Tim Smyczek – Although Kimmer Coppejans is a future prospect, nobody outside of Luca Vanni (and even that is a stretch) is likely to give Smyczek serious problems here. It is simply a great draw for the American.
5) Matthias Bachinger – This is yet another section in which I think the two best players (Bachinger and Matt Ebden) have to square off in the first round. Ebden is tempting, especially at home in Australia. Bachinger, however, has a clear edge in current form.
6) Adam Pavlasek – Frank Dancevic is intriguing, but his heat problems Down Under are well-documented. Nicolas Mahut also has a chance, of course, but he has done nothing in singles of late. Pavlasek got some great experience against stuff competition at the Hopman Cup.
7) Aljaz Bedene – A letdown can naturally be expected after Bedene reached his first ATP final in Chennai. But it’s hard to see anyone in the Slovenian’s group of eight who could capitalize on any dip in form.
8) Ryan Harrison – Harrison’s first round could be fun, and that’s putting it mildly. He is going up against convicted steroid user Wayne Odesnik, whom Harrison once called a “weasel.” The younger American is coming off a Challenger title in Happy Valley.
9) Liam Broady – This section is wide open given that you never know if Thiemo De Bakker is 100 percent. Broady had a huge fall on the Challenger and Futures circuits, so the Brit is riding a wave of momentum.
10) Taro Daniel – Michael Berrer might be a trendy pick following his Doha upset of Rafael Nadal, but overreacting to one match is always dangerous. Daniel is a tough first-round draw and–once again–the winner of that one should go all the way.
11) Maris Copil – Copil, Horacio Zeballos, and Philipp Petzschner are no strangers to main-draw appearances at the ATP and even Grand Slam level. For the time being, Copil is the most reliable performer of the three.
12) Kyle Edmund – Don’t ask me how Edmund is going to qualify; I just have a gut feeling he will. The seeds in this section–Norbert Gombos and Somdev Devvarman–are extremely vulnerable, so it’s pretty wide open.
13) Rhyne Williams – If the American can get past Alexander Kudyavtsev right off the bat, he should advance through his next two matches. An interesting final-rounder between fellow Tennessee Volunteers Williams and Tennys Sangren is possible.
14) Aleksandr Nedovyesov – This portion of the qualifying draw is absolutely loaded with Nedovyesov, Lukasz Kubot, and Illya Marchenko. All three deserve to get in. Nedovyesov is the favorite, but he will have to earn it the hard way.
15) Nikoloz Basilashvili – If the season ended today, Nikoloz Basilashvili would be in the World Tour Finals. You can’t make this stuff up, folks. The 22-year-old Georgian qualified in Doha then took out Mikhail Youzhny.
16) Laurent Lokoli – The final section is a joke. It is weak and wide open. First I had Stefano Travaglia. Then I had Jonathan Eysseric. I’m settling on Lokoli, just because–based on last year’s French Open–he seems like a cool cat.
Joey:
1) Jarmere Jenkins – Decent draw for Jenkins in his first slam qualies outside of New York. No. 1 seed Damir Dzumhur made R3 in Melbourne last year but did little afterwards. Golden set Tim Puetz is also an interesting possibility.
2) Steve Darcis – Pretty loaded section, simply because Darcis and Melzer are there. Darcis is coming in with good form; he won in Noumea and will be tough to beat here.
3) Elias Ymer – Another unbelievably tough section. Ymer is going to have a huge year and will upset Paire in the first round. From there, he could play either Hyeon Chung or Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the final round. If the courts are playing fast then Herbert is tough, but I think the young Swede comes through this one.
4) Tim Smyczek – Not sure Smee could have asked for a better draw. Vanni, the 29th seed, just lost to Jules Maria in Auckland qualifying. Smyczek’s first match against Coppejans will likely be his toughest.
5) Matt Ebden – Ebden had a horrific 2014 but is the best bet in this section especially given this is in Australia. Beck will be his only real test.
6) Alex Kuznetsov – There’s a ton of qualies experience here. Mahut, Dancevic, Kuznetsov, and Jan Hernych have all played their fair share of matches. Pretty much a coin flip for me, but going with the American.
7) Aljaz Bedene – Bedene is coming off an impressive final run in Chennai. American Bradley Klahn has a tough draw and could play Michal Przysniezny in the second round. Tough one to pick, but gotta go with the hot hand.
8) Jimmy Wang – Wang is tougher than many realize. He’ll likely face Harrison in the final round and that will be a very good match, but Wang will come out on top.
9) Thiemo De Bakker – Underrated portion of the draw here. Young talent in Broady, Jared Donaldson, and Maverick Banes, but also experience with De Bakker and Farrukh Dustov. However, if De Bakker playing well he should come out on top.
10) Taro Daniel – Berrer somehow beat Nadal but he’ll have serious trouble with Daniel, who is rock-solid from the baseline. Other than that there’s nothing really to speak of given Robby Ginepri’s recent performances.
11) Marius Copil – Tough call with Alexander Zverev looming, but Copil has serious game. J.P. Smith could be dangerous, as well, if he can get the crowd behind him.
12) Norbert Gombos – Gombos is a pretty epic name, and he also possesses an entertaining style of play. If he can get by James McGee, he should qualify.
13) Rhyne Williams – Rhyno was very impressive in Brisbane, and if he can manage his emotions as well as he did there, he’s in good shape. Potential all-Tennessee showdown with Sandgren would be awesome.
14) Illya Marchenko – Another really tough to call section. Kubot is looming, but can he play consistently well for three matches? Marchenko stands out as the most reliable.
15) Nikolaz Basilashvili – Basilashvili is a sleeper pick for me in 2015, and he sort of ruined that sleeper status already by qualifying and beating Youzhny in Doha. Evgeny Donskoy does present a hefty challenge, however.
16) Adrian Menendez-Maceiras – I know it’s a pretty weak section if I’m even considering Ilija Bozoljac as an option. Really a pick-’em here, and I’ll go with Menendez-Maceiras simply due to his recent results (final in Noumea).
Steen:
Gombos and Lokoli…sounds like the Lord of the Rings Open!!!