Rafael Nadal’s absence from a Grand Slam cannot really be considered “good news” for anyone since it is unquestionably bad for the entire sport of tennis, but it certainly does not the hurt the title chances of other contenders such as Novak Djokovic and—to an even greater extent—Roger Federer. For Federer, his stroke of favorable (we won’t call it “good,” but “favorable” works) fortune continued when the U.S. Open draw ceremony was held last week in New York.
Djokovic’s quarter
Aside from not having to face Nadal, who beat Djokovic in last year’s final, the draw could not be much worse for the world No. 1. His quarter is absolutely loaded. It also boasts two-time major champion Andy Murray, Toronto winner Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and the always-dangerous John Isner. Other hopefuls include Philipp Kohlschreiber, Fernando Verdasco, Cincinnati semifinalist Julien Benneteau, and unseeded floaters Sam Querrey, Yen-Hsun Lu, and Radek Stepanek.
The good news for Djokovic is that his first two rounds should be entirely straightforward as he looks to get in some match practice in the wake of surprising third-round exits in both Toronto and Cincinnati. Perhaps the Wimbledon champ will have heated back up by the time he possibly faces Lu in the third round and either Isner or Kohlschreiber in the last 16. Interestingly, Isner and Kohlschreiber are on course to face each other in the third round for a third straight year (Kohlschreiber won in five in 2012 and in a fourth-set tiebreaker in 2013). Tsonga, who upset both Djokovic and Murray in Toronto, is on a collision course with the Scot for the fourth round.
Best first-round matchup — (24) Julien Benneteau vs. Benoit Paire
Like any Paire match, this has the potential to be a disaster but could just as easily turn out to be an entertaining thriller. Paire and Benneteau both hail from France, but that is where the similarities end. While Paire is a volatile, talented up-and-comer (alleged up-and-comer, more like it), Benneteau is a level-headed (except in ATP finals) veteran. Paire’s forehand is awful and his backhand is one of the most dangerous on tour; Benneteau is simply rock-solid off both wings. This should be an intriguing contrast in styles.
Best potential second-round matchup – (8) Andy Murray vs. Radek Stepanek
Best potential third-round matchup – (13) John Isner vs. (22) Philipp Kohlschreiber
Possible surprises – At first glance, there is not much room for surprises in the most difficult section of the bracket with Djokovic, Murray, and Tsonga on board. That being said, Djokovic’s hard-court summer has been a disaster, Murray does not have a single top-10 win since Wimbledon of 2013, and Tsonga’s 2014 campaign has been nothing short of abysmal aside from his out-of-nowhere Toronto result. As such, the Isner-Kolschreiber winner (and they have no danger to speak of in advance of that potential showdown) will have a shot at reaching the semis—especially if it’s Isner.
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Wawrinka’s quarter
With Nadal gone and Djokovic in the same quarter as Murray, at least two semifinalists will be non-“Big 4” members. One will come from this fourth of the bracket, which has to be considered the weakest from top to bottom. Anyone other than Stan Wawrinka or Milos Raonic making it to the semis would constitute a huge surprise and it’s not like Wawrinka and Raonic, themselves, are staples of Grand Slam semifinals.
Of the top two, Raonic has an easier path. The Canadian’s nearest seed is Lukas Rosol, who is coming off a title in Winston-Salem and can be a force to be reckoned with when his high-risk game is working. However, Rosol sort of back-doored his way to victory as the beneficiary of a retirement and a walkover in Winston-Salem and he now must make a quick turnaround following long matches on Friday and Saturday. The top 16 seed in Raonic’s eighth is Kei Nishikori, who has not played since Washington, D.C. due to a toe issue. Wawrinka could run into one of two 2013 U.S. Open quarterfinalists in this year’s fourth round (Tommy Robredo or Mikhail Youzhny).
Best first-round matchup — (21) Mikhail Youzhny vs. Nick Kyrgios
Like Paire-Benneteau, this one will feature much different styles and two players at very different points in their careers. Just a teenager, Kyrgios used his powerful 6’4” frame to overwhelm Nadal in a Wimbledon stunner. Youzhny is a clean ball-striker who won’t blow anyone off a court—especially not with his serve. He has no huge wins in 2014 (certainly nothing like Kyrgios’ scalp of Nadal) but his Grand Slam experience is immense and nowhere is it bigger and better than at the U.S. Open. The Russian reached the semifinals in 2006 and 2010 and the quarters last season.
Best potential second-round matchup – (16) Tommy Robredo vs. Vasek Pospisil
Best potential third-round matchup – (3) Stan Wawrinka vs. Donald Young
Possible surprises — The two unseeded entrants who have the best chances of doing real damage in this quarter happen to be doubles partners. Jack Sock and Vasek Pospisil took the summer by storm, winning titles at Wimbledon and in Atlanta before finishing runner-up in Cincinnati. They are also heating up in singles, with Pospisil reaching the Washington, D.C. final Sock making two straight 250-point semifinal appearances. Pospisil’s nearest seeds are Robredo and Youzhny; Sock’s are Nishikori and Leonardo Mayer.
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Ferrer’s quarter
This section is going to be the most fun from start to finish; there is almost no chance of that not being the case. Rarely is a major semifinal spot so up for grabs to such a large group of contenders. Among those on the aforementioned list are seeds David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych, Ernests Gulbis, Marin Cilic, Kevin Anderson, Feliciano Lopez, and Gilles Simon. Lleyton Hewitt, Dominic Thiem, Bernard Tomic, Jerzy Janowicz, Steve Johnson, and Marcos Baghdatis only make the quarter even more impressive.
As such, intriguing matchups already are and should continue to be plentiful. On the first-round docket are Berych vs. Hewitt, Cilic vs. Baghdatis, and Lopez vs. Ivan Dodig. Gulbis and Thiem, best friends on tour who share coach Gunter Bresnik, could square off in the second round. So could Lopez and an in-form Johnson. Ferrer’s road just to reach the quarters could, starting in the second round, go Tomic-Simon-Cilic. Janowicz, making a quick turnaround coming off a Winston-Salem runner-up, begins against Dusan Lajovic before a possible big-hitting showdown with Anderson.
Best first-round matchup — (6) Tomas Berdych vs. Lleyton Hewitt
It’s possible that this ends up being one of the most comprehensive beatdowns of the first round. At 33 years old, it is only natural that Hewitt is becoming more and more prone to having flat days in which he has absolutely nothing to offer on the tennis court. That combined with one of the biggest-hitting opponents on tour would be a recipe for disaster. What Hewitt does best when he is playing well, however, is feasting on out-of-form adversaries. And that’s exactly what Berdych is right now. Hewitt’s defense, consistency, and return of serve could frustrate the Czech to no end.
Best potential second-round matchup – (11) Ernests Gulbis vs. Dominic Thiem
Best potential third-round matchup – (4) David Ferrer vs. (26) Gilles Simon
Possible surprises — No outcome of this section would be terribly surprising. That’s generally the case when a field is loaded with depth but cannot in any way be considered top-heavy. Every seed other than No. 27 Santiago Giraldo has realistic hopes for a semifinal run. As for the unseeded contingent, watch out for Janowicz and Johnson. As bad as Janowicz had been this season prior to Winston-Salem, he is still a former major semifinalist (Wimbledon 2013). Johnson’s recent results include a quarterfinal performance in Washington, D.C. and a third-round showing in Cincinnati—where he lost to Raonic in a third-set tiebreaker.
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Federer’s quarter
“You mad, bro?” Perhaps that is what Federer has reason to ask other favorites like Djokovic and Murray, who have taxing draws by comparison. At the very bottom of the bracket, Federer is sitting pretty and should be able to waltz his way into the quarters and maybe even the semis and final. The Swiss’ only legitimate roadblock prior to the last eight is Ivo Karlovic, against whom Federer is 11-1 lifetime and 5-0 since the summer of 2008. Federer probably should not drop a set in the first round (Marinko Matosevic), second round (Albert Ramos-Vinolas or Sam Groth), or fourth round (possible seeds are Fabio Fognini and Roberto Bautista Agut).
On the other side of the quarter, Frenchmen Gael Monfils and Richard Gasquet are on course to collide in the third round. For the time being, it is Monfils who is healthy and Gasquet who is not—but that script could be flipped on a whim. Wimbledon semifinalist Grigor Dimitrov has a great draw at least until the fourth round. Ryan Harrison, quite frankly, does not. Infamous for awful draws in rounds one and two of slams, Harrison will face Dimitrov right away for a second consecutive major.
Best first-round matchup — (12) Richard Gasquet vs. Denis Istomin
Istomin is one of those guys who wins matches he is supposed to win but almost never beats heavily-favored opponents. However, he generally thrives on the big stage. At times he produced wildly entertaining tennis against Nadal at the 2010 U.S. Open and against Djokovic this year in Melbourne. The Uzbek reached the fourth round of Wimbledon in 2012 and the fourth round of the U.S. Open last summer. It is increasingly hard to see Gasquet turning this into a rout due to the questionable state of his back.
Best potential second-round matchup – (25) Ivo Karlovic vs. Marcel Granollers
Best potential third-round matchup – (15) Fabio Fognini vs. (17) Roberto Bautista Agut
Possible surprises — Nobody other than Karlovic has a chance to unseat Federer prior to the quarters. The guys to watch in this section are Istomin and David Goffin. Istomin, as mentioned, could capitalize on a rusty Gasquet—who withdrew midway through Toronto and pulled out of Cincinnati. Who knows what kind of shape Monfils might be in by the time he advances to a potential third-rounder versus Istomin? As for Goffin, he is 25-1 in his last 26 matches, albeit against mostly unimposing competition. But similar competition is what the Belgian has on tap for the first two rounds and beating Dimitrov in the last 32 is by no means out of the question.
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