French Open final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Murray

The French Open title is coming down to No. 1 vs. No. 2 in the world on Sunday, with both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray hoping to triumph at Roland Garros for the first time. A three-team panel weighs in on the action.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Andy Murray

Ricky: Djokovic vs. Murray showdowns are sometimes criticized as boring and they are rarely more than foregone conclusions at the Australian Open. But this is a different time and place, and a split of their recent clay-court contests in Madrid and Rome have triggered well-deserved hype in this final at Roland Garros. It shouldn’t disappoint. Djokovic, as expected, has been the best player throughout this fortnight and Murray has picked up the pace considerably since unnecessary five-setters against Radek Stepanek and Mathias Bourgue to begin his Paris campaign. The result should be a high-quality encounter.

Especially on this surface, this will once again be other strength vs. strength baseline battle. That generally favors Djokovic–at least on a relatively slow hard court such as the one in Melbourne or on clay. Murray, of course, would prefer to face the top-seeded Serb on grass (he beat Djokovic for his lone Wimbledon title and also got the best of him at the 2012 London Olympics). As for the pressure of needing this final puzzle piece for the puzzle that is the career Grand Slam, the 11-time major champion has been dealing with that since the start of this tournament and it ratcheted it up when Rafael Nadal withdrew more than a week ago–making Djokovic an even heavier favorite. That added weight has hardly slowed him down and there is no reason to think it will suddenly affect him in this one. Djokovic 6-3, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3.

Pete Ziebron: This marks the second consecutive year in which there will be a first-time winner of the French Open. After a run of four consecutive seasons from 2002 through 2005 in which both players attempted to win their first major on clay, this rare occurrence did not happen again until 200–when Federer defeated Robin Soderling and then again last year when Stan Wawrinka beat Djokovic. The world No. 1 is very well aware of his place in history and what lifting the Coupe des Mousquetaires would mean to him, his fans, his nation, and his legacy. On Friday, Djokovic played a near immaculate match in eliminating Thiem, the upstart from Austria. After taking out Tomas Berdych in the quarters, Djokovic stated that he still “had a few more gears.” Well, he certainly did not have to use nor display them in his semifinal win over Thiem in barely more than two hours of play.

Adam Leigh: Quite a bit seems to have been made of Murray’s win over Djokovic in Rome in the lead-up to the French Open, as if it meant he was a legitimate contender for the title at Roland Garros. There is no question the Scot has improved on the clay, most noticeably in his ability to construct points and be aggressive when the right ball presents itself. Djokovic quite simply is the best defense player the game has ever seen and is at the apex of his powers. Like Murray, he isn’t a prototypical clay-courter, but in the age of ultra-athleticism that both players have had a big hand in introducing, the distinction between surfaces and styles has become increasingly blurred. He has dominated Murray over the past three seasons, holding a 12-2 record during that period. Simply put, he stretches the second seed too thinly across the court with the quality and consistency of his placements, eventually getting him off balance or his footwork out of shape.

Djokovic wasn’t at his best in Rome and he will not be anywhere as passive or charitable as Wawrinka was in the semi-finals. He has glided through the draw this year at Roland Garros and knows that he won’t get a better opportunity that this to lift the title and set up the chance at a calendar-year Grand Slam. Murray pushed him to five sets a year ago in a semi-final here and he will make Djokovic work very hard again, but ultimately the result will be the same. Djokovic 6-4, 5-7, 6-3, 6-7, 6-2 

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