Australian Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta, Khachanov vs. Kyrgios

Rafael Nadal will continue his Australian Open campaign when he collides with fellow Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta on Saturday. The winner of that contest will battle either Karen Khachanov or Nick Kyrgios in round four.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (27) Pablo Carreno Busta


It would be an understatement to say that Carreno Busta much prefers having Nadal on the same side of the court as opposed to the opposite one. They are 8-1 together in doubles, while Nadal is sweeping the singles head-to-head series 4-0 heading into Saturday’s third-round matchup at the Australian Open. The current world No. 1 is 8-1 in total sets, but Carreno Busta’s one set came in their only previous hard-court encounter (Doha 2016).

Is there any hope for the 30th-ranked Spaniard this time? Probably not, but Nadal at least left the door briefly open for Federico Delbonis to steal a set in a 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-1 victory on Thursday night. Nadal preceded that result with a 6-2, 6-3, 6-0 beatdown of Hugo Dellien, while Carreno Busta has defeated both Jozef Kovalik and Peter Gojowyczk in four sets. Carreno Busta will make for some entertaining rallies, but this should be a straightforward affair for his heavily-favored countryman.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11-14 games

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(23) Nick Kyrgios vs. (16) Karen Khachanov

Khachanov and Kyrgios will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers on Saturday. Their only previous contest was an infamous one, and that is putting it mildly. It was the scene of arguably Kyrgios’ biggest-ever meltdown to date, and that is saying a lot. Beyond the Aussie’s shenanigans, the most importing thing for Khachanov is that he stayed composed and prevailed 6-7(3), 7-6(4), 6-2 in round two of the Cincinnati Masters last summer.

A better-behaved Kyrgios (he is still on provisional suspension stemming from that match, after all) has been on top of his game so far in Melbourne, taking out Lorenzo Sonego in straight sets and Gilles Simon in four. The world No. 26 was not exactly dominant on either occasion, however. Khachanov has a new lease on life after outlasting Mikael Ymer in a fifth-set tiebreaker on Thursday. The 17th-ranked Russian struggled physically at the end, but that was really due to just one marathon point in the ‘breaker and he had previously looked fine throughout the four-hour and 34-minute struggle. This is another good opportunity for Khachanov against an opponent who is known to go off the rails whenever things aren’t easy for him.

Pick: Khachanov in 4

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79 Comments on Australian Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta, Khachanov vs. Kyrgios

  1. You really hate kyrgios lol, you always predict him to lose against player he would eat for breakfast if he’s motivated. Khachanov barely won against Ymer and dropped a set against an unknown Spanish guy, do you really think he could beat kyrgios? Come on, if nick is motivated and focused he will beat him in 3.

  2. Once again picking against kyrgios? He ain’t losing to anyone but the big 4 I’m telling you. If there is any time he will be 💯 motivated and play for real it’s this tournament because he wants to make money to donate to the bush fires relief charities.

  3. Kyrgios needs to focus once again for 3 sets out of 5. Sure, he’s motivated, but most likely his temper will get the best of him.

  4. This is quite a difficult draw for Nadal given his vulnerability atm and on this surface. Any one of these players can cause the upset!

    Careno Busta
    Kyrgios
    Theim
    Medvedev

  5. Oh please! PCB was never going to beat Rafa! The conditions are different in this day match. The ball is jumping up. Rafa came out serving very well. He seems comfortable playing PCB.

    • It was a masterclass wasn’t it! Great serving and he was really in the zone. 42 winners yo 7 UE !

      You could see how the conditions helped him redline his game.

      Night conditions not good for Fedal with these slow balls

      • True there, Rafa said it himself, that the sun and the heat made the ball bounce higher and that’s good for him.

        I do agree playing at night has disadvantaged both Fed and Rafa because of the way they play. It doesn’t affect Djoko much as he likes slower conditions, making it even harder to beat him imo as he has more time to get to the ball and the lower bounce doesn’t affect him when he doesn’t put in too much topspin.

      • Rafa loves the sun! 42 winners!?! In 3 sets? Wonder if that’s a record for him.

        So next match will be Nik at Nite? Or maybe KK at night… Maybe if KK wins they’ll let Medvedev have the night match. Will it be on RLA or Melbourne Arena as NK prefers?

        I haven’t watched the match yet, went to sleep at 11 and woke up at 3, figured I’d check in – 4 hours is plenty of sleep, right? Happy news! Think I’ll stay up for awhile and see some of it. Rafa does look pretty in pink.

  6. Perfect match length for Rafa today!!…Yess!!…

    I guess his next match is nite session…so..hope he will adjust better to cold condition this time..heavy ball & stuff..unlike in his 1st match.

  7. You think Rafa stands a chance against kyrgios esp at night on rla..kyrgios has not played a match on rla neither has kacha..you think that will make a difference ?

    • Thanks for the link, Augusta! Rafa’s a total professional. He enjoyed watching Roger v Millman and plans to enjoy watching NK v KK. I expect he will. Like so many Rafans I wish I could be more like him.

  8. Why can’t rafa insist on day session for his 4th n qf…they do have a say right..i understand semi n final are mandatory at night

  9. See, told you, Kyrgios wants to be like Fed! But now I doubt he has the energy to take out Rafa in the next round. If Rafa beats Kyrgios relatively comfortably, he’ll have Khachanov to thank for!

    Vamos Rafa! Come on, get rid of Kyrgios in the next round.

  10. Well played by Nick at the end there. Really should’ve won it in three though, he’s just too cavalier at times.

    Will be interesting to see if he can even be fit for Rafa.

  11. A bit surprised that Khachanov has the energy to go five sets four and a half hours today, after his epic against M Ymer in five sets and also four and a half hours. Too bad for him, it’s not meant to be for him this time.

    • He picked up a knock in his leg somewhere after coming down on one of his serves early in 1st set, seemed to run it off though to my eye, but at the end he said his legs “feel like 40 kilos each”. Interesting recovery ahead lool

      • Yes I know sanju!
        Having said that, it is good that NK had to play a 5 setter and Rafa won easily in 3. NK isn’t very fit.
        I am still worried of course!!😀

      • Strange that Rafa could come out of the gate playing aggressive tennis vs Kyrgios (as per their recent Wimbledon match), but once he sees Djoko across the net, he turns defensive and has to chase from behind oh so often and that’s why he couldn’t even win a set on the HCs against Djoko, after the USO2013 final!

        When would Rafa learn a lesson?

        • The draw is a bit disappointing. 1st half looks stronger.
          Thiem, Med, Zverev, Kyrgios all there. Not to mention Kachanov and Tsitsi that had to leave. Who can stop Djoko? I hope Schwartz takes at least a set.

  12. Look, even if Rafa gets to the final it will be mentally, emotionally and physically exhausting to play no matter who is across the net bcos Rafa’s draw IS exhausting in itself!!

    Novak is a lucky bastard!! Hope Diego makes him run like a dog!!!!!

  13. Finally getting to watch a match and it’s a great one! Khachanov-Kyrgios

    What a dope. Kyrigos could have finished the match in three straight sets had he been focused. Not saying Khachanov didn’t play well or looked bad. He’s looking great. Love this match!

    My WTA bracket is very disappointing!

      • Hey Sanju!….Ohh..i will go with Rafa too!Definitely!…Even b4 Nicky had to play for 4 hrs & half,i already picked Rafa..
        Semis…Rafa/Meddy….Fed/Novak

        Big hey hey hey to amy & RC!

        • Hey hey hey mira! Good to see you hon!!
          An dreading Rafa playing NK although the fact that NK just played his longest match ever must surely help him.

          • Hey hey hey back amy!…nice to c u too amy!hehe….how r u amy?Hope everythings ok in your part of your world!…

            Bout Rafa/Nicky… when they met at Wimby last year We also dreaded of that meeting remember?But Rafa managed to come out unscathed from that…And if Rafa be able to win against him on grass,..here is not much different i think..

            Hope Rafa practice at nite to get used to the cold condition…i think the temp will be 19 celcius?I also think Rafa is not used to the cold weather at Melbourne in january…that’s why he had problem against Delbo…usually the weather is not this cold at this time of the year..

            Btw…i’m super xcited for their match amy!…C’mon Rafa!…kick his sore ass!!

    • You’re not alone! Ive only got on eplayer (Barty) left after week 1 .
      I really thought (hoped) Pliskova might do it this year .I didn’t go for Petra going far because the air conditions might not suit her .

      Anyway its all very interesting esp the mens.

  14. Rafa is winning his next match even if it is played in the evening. Would be nice if Gael beats Thiem and give Rafa a softer qtr final!

    On a separate note, kudos to Zverev for turning things around! He is the player of the week given how much he has improved since ATP cup. Not sure if he can stop Rublev but he is on the right track again.

    • VR,

      From your lips to God’s ears! I am always very nervous when Rafa has to play Kyrgios. I dread it. Kyrgios will act up for sure. He does not bother to hide his dislike for Rafa.

      I am glad that Rafa showed much better form against PCB. He will need it against Kyrgios. If it’s at night then I won’t see it live, I can’t stay up to the wee hours anymore, so I will record it.

      It would be lovely if Gael could beat Thiem, but after seeing Thiem playing I don’t think so. Rafa reality has a tough draw.

  15. Btw whenever rafa has beaten kachanov..he has not gone far in slams..wimby 17 third round and uso 18 third round ..wimby 17 he lost next round n uso 18 he lost in semis

    So maybe Karen losing is good 🙂

    • Meeting Kyrgios Is never good for Rafa! Matches with spoiled brat take so much away from Rafa primarily in the mental department…I was so hoping Karen to win…
      If Nick was to meet anyone but Rafa in his next round I bet he would have had lost the match today after Kachanov’s comeback! But Nick was super motivated just to be able to play Rafa…

      Hope my guy turns up focused and with less nervousness…I wish Rafa luck and success! He will have the crowd against him…tough job for Rafa…

      Vamos Champ!

    • Yup, your MSN homepage was wrong, along with a few others! Joao Sousa (from Portugal) is a good guy, didn’t want his rep trashed by accident. As for Souza, good riddance to bad rubbish!

  16. I think it will be the TOP four guys at the SFs. I expect Rafa to beat Meddy if both get there; as for Fed vs Djoko, I think Djoko will win even though I hope he won’t!

    PS I expect Rafa to beat Kyrgios and then whoever in the QF. I expect Meddy to beat Stan and Rublev or Sasha too (most likely Rublev).

  17. Big tests for Rafa and Novak against Kyrgios and Raonic in the QF.
    Regarding Sandgren, don’t know much about him. But I prefer him to those 2.

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