Paris QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Tsonga, Monfils vs. Shapovalov

Frenchmen Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gael Monfils are making serious noise at the Paris Masters, but they will have their hands full on Friday. Tsonga is going up against Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals, while Monfils is facing Denis Shapovalov.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Tsonga will be meeting for the 14th time in their careers when they battle for a semifinal spot at the BNP Paribas Masters on Friday night. The head-to-head series stands at 9-4 in favor of Nadal, although three of Tsonga’s wins have come on hard courts and he has won three of their last seven encounters. The two veterans squared off for the first time since 2015 when they collided this summer at Wimbledon, where Nadal dominated 6-2, 6-3, 6-2.

That setting should have given Tsonga a decent chance and this one is no different. The 35th-ranked Frenchman is a former champion of this event (2008) and he is almost always at his best indoors. A recent champion in Metz, Tsonga has maintained his fine form this week with victories over Andrey Rublev, Matteo Berrettini, and Jan-Lennard Struff. Nadal, who is in tournament action for the first time since winning the U.S. Open, has advanced with straight-set defeats of Adrian Mannarino and Stan Wawrinka. Tsonga has endured extremely tough matches against Rublev and Struff, so a confident Nadal should not have too much trouble ending the crowd favorite’s run.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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Denis Shapovalov vs. (13) Gael Monfils

Under the radar for much of 2019, Monfils is suddenly one win away from a berth in the Nitto ATP Finals. The 13th-ranked Frenchman’s 37-17 record is sparkling, but additional injuries were such that almost no one thought he had a real shot at qualifying for the year-end championship. That has changed with a quarterfinal performance at the U.S. Open, a semifinal showing in Vienna, and Paris wins over Benoit Paire and Radu Albot.

Next up for Monfils on Friday is a second career contest against Shapovalov. They previously faced each other a couple of months ago at the U.S. Open, where Monfils survived one of the best matches of the fortnight 6-7(5), 7-6(4), 6-4, 6-7(6), 6-3. Shapovalov has earned another shot at this week’s No. 13 seed by beating Gilles Simon, Fabio Fognini, and Alexander Zverev–the latter two in three sets. The 28th-ranked Canadian is flying high right now, having recently captured his first career ATP title in Stockholm. With the pressure on Monfils, who remains wildly inconsistent in terms of both form and health despite his overall success, this is a great opportunity for Shapovalov.

Pick: Shapovalov in 3

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41 Comments on Paris QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Tsonga, Monfils vs. Shapovalov

  1. Tsonga is a tough opponent. He iften starts off slowly but if he is let in he can bring it. Hope Rafa will be fully recovered for the match because he will need his ‘A’ game.

    Vamos Rafa!

  2. Rafa has a huge advantage in mental strength against Tsonga. Neither Tsonga or Monfils are mental giants. Athletic and talented for sure. Monfils is so injury prone. Tsonga has had his share of injuries. But he will have the crowd behind him. As long as that stomach bug does not get worse, I think Rafa will get the win.

  3. Certainly more of a favorite than before he cleaned Tsitsi’s clock today. Dimi’s looking much improved but I don’t think he can take Djoko out. Ditto for Shapo, Tsonga, Nadal.

  4. Rafa’s first serve % really sucks. I don’t understand why he just can’t put many first serves in, contrast that to Tsonga, who just continues to serve big first serves one after another without missing much! If only Rafa could serve like that…

    Rafa has to work so hard to hold serve so often. I think he feels the 25 sec time constraint, keeps looking at the clock and so couldn’t focus well on his first serve. His coach should time him in practice when he practices his serve.

  5. Rafa’s first serve % really sucks. I don’t understand why he just can’t put many first serves in, contrast that to Tsonga, who just continues to serve big first serves one after another without missing much! If only Rafa could serve like that…

    Rafa has to work so hard to hold serve so often. I think he feels the 25 sec time constraint, keeps looking at the clock and so couldn’t focus well on his first serve. His coach should time him in practice when he practices his serve.

  6. Tsonga makes Rafa works so hard. Tsonga has such a big and reliable serve, unlike Tsitsipas whose serve is quite predictable making it easier for Djoko to return them.

    Rafa vs Tsonga has more short points, not much rallying so Rafa is playing well to beat his opponents here playing short point tennis. If he beats Tsonga here, he’ll have even tougher opponents ahead – Shapo, Dimi or Djoko, all are playing well and come with good to great serves.

  7. Vamos Rafa! Grats to him for reaching the semis! Agree with Lucky that life gets tougher for Rafa from here. Still, every win helps in the chase for YE #1!

  8. Rafa is in the semis! Well done! After the first set Rafa took control. He seems very relaxed. They said on the tennis channel that he said before the tournament that he was feeling great. I love how he is playing. Great serving, using his volleying skills well. He is obviously feeling good right now.

    He has challenged ahead, but I like where he’s at now.

    • I don’t think a competitive semifinal loss to Shapovalov would be bad.

      Worst thing going into London would be a routine loss to Djokovic in final.

      Obviously best thing would be a title.

          • Agree with Ricky here, but even if Rafa loses to Djoker, he still would be happy with his indoor performance. His matches have not been very long, just the kind of tournament Rafa needed before WTF. He looks fresh and confident and is playing very loose.

          • Its a warm up for the WTF, but the Masters 1000 tag is a bit of a joke these days. A Masters on grass is much better.

      • I think Rafa will probably lose to Djoko if they meet in the final, assuming Djoko plays the way he did today. Do you think Rafa does not know that?? If losses crushed Rafa’s spirit he’d be dead by now. Losses don’t but injuries may get him yet.

        Agree that Rafa’s done well to reach the semis in Paris whatever happens there. The court in London seems to be more to his liking than the one in Paris and he’s playing well. But I expect the competition there to be very tough.

        • Not taking anything away from Djoker’s win over Tsitsipas, but Tsitsipas was awful in their match. Djokovic didn’t have to stretch himself to beat him unlike Nadal’s match against Tsonga.

  9. Minimum Rafa will be ahead is 640 points of Novak at start of wtf.

    Shapo will be very tough Tomm given how well shapo played. Rafa has it way tougher than Novak in semis.

  10. But Dimi is also playing very here and he looks determined to do well. I don’t think the SFs will be easy for Rafa and Djoko.

    Tsitsipas really disappointing imo, for he simply stayed at the baseline all match chasing after balls, and basically served out wide at both ad and deuce courts all match, hardly going down the T (and when he did go DTT, he won the service point!). He’s over relying on his BH, and was making more errors with his FH (he used to have a solid FH but now it’s leaking errors so often, time for him to train that FH to get it sharp and lethal again!).

    I would think if it’s Tsonga facing Djoko and serving the way he did, at least he would make it more competitive even though he would lose in the end. I mean, he’s good enough to win more than three games, unlike that no.6 ranked Tsitsipas.

    I think Shapo too may offer more resistance. To me Shapo here > Tsitsipas, having a lethal serve and willing to attack at the net, very aggressive.

  11. Let Rafa first get past shapo , we will worry about djoko tomm if it has to happen

    I personally just want the ye no 1 honour .whether he wins Paris or not does not really matter

  12. I am with Sanju here! I don’t really care about Paris indoor title ( Rafa conquered Paris long time ago!). Rafa to win WTF is also highly unlikely and irrelevant for Rafa. All I care is Rafa staying healthy to win a couple of more GSs, AO being high possibility next year! And year end no 1 would certainly be great!

    Rafa should enjoy his game here as a worm up for WTF! By the way, Shapo has the NextGen tourney next week. He should have conserved energy for that…

    Vamos Champ!

  13. Shapo now playing like a young Rafa, I mean he’s quick and powerful with explosive movements. He’s like the 17 yo Rafa at Miami, who played aggressive tennis against Fed, and moved to the net to finish points.

    The difference is that Shapo has a big serve and plays an attacking style consistently, unlike Rafa who then becomes a counterpuncher rather than becoming an attacking player.

  14. I don’t know what happened. The match was about to start and they told the crowd that Rafa had to withdraw due to an injury!

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