No Novak Djokovic. No Rafael Nadal. No Roger Federer…. No problem?
Based on current form and their most recent head-to-head showdown, a Western & Southern Open final between Daniil Medvedev and David Goffin on Sunday afternoon should be particularly entertaining–no matter that it is extremely unexpected.
Medvedev and Goffin will be facing each other for the third time in their careers and for the third time this season. An Australian Open third-round encounter went Medvedev’s way 6-2, 7-6(3), 6-3 before Goffin survived a 4-6, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 thriller in the Wimbledon third round.
Despite that setback, it has been an unbelievable summer for the 23-year-old Russian. He is up to No. 8 in the world and will be fifth in the race to London on Monday–a virtual lock to make his debut appearance at the Nitto ATP Finals. Mevedev reached the semifinal at Queen’s Club prior to Wimbledon and his current hot stretch features three finals in as many weeks: Washington, D.C. (lost to Nick Kyrgios), Montreal (lost to Rafael Nadal), and now Cincinnati. He has advanced in Cincinnati with victories over Kyle Edmund, Benoit Paire, Jan-Lennard Struff, Andrey Rublev, and Novak Djokovic–surrendering a set only to Djokovic.
“To be honest, I don’t know how I did it,” the ninth seed said. “I was so tired in the first set and playing Novak I thought I wasn’t able to keep the intensity. Then the one momentum change in the second set was the difference. The crowd gave me so much energy.”
While Medvedev is through to his second Masters 1000 final in two weeks, Goffin will be playing in his first-ever Masters 1000 final. The 19th-ranked Belgian has been both lucky and good in the Queen City, benefiting from a spot in the wide-open bottom half of the draw in addition to getting a quarterfinal walkover from an ill Yoshihito Nishioka. Goffin has knocked off an in-form Taylor Fritz (three sets), Guido Pella (who beat him in Montreal), Adrian Mannarino, and surprise semifinalist Richard Gasquet. The 28-year-old has also dropped just one set.
“Unfortunately Nishioka could not play yesterday and I had just a small hit,” Goffin commented after trouncing Gasquet 6-3, 6-4. “It was almost a day off, so I was fresh and physically 100 percent today to play against Richard. I was lucky and managed to play some good tennis and managed my emotions…. I’m really happy. It’s a tournament I like and I’ve played the best tennis here in the past few years. I’m really happy to reach my first Masters 1000 final here. It’s a great moment for me.”
It is perhaps an even bigger moment for Medvedev on Sunday, even though he knows–perhaps all too well after getting blown out by Nadal last Sunday–what this stage is like. Unlike against Nadal and Kyrgios, Medvedev is the obvious favorite in this one as the hottest player on tour and the higher-ranked player. That will create pressure, as will the fact that he is 1-4 in ATP finals this year.
Don’t be surprised if a well-rested Goffin pulls off the upset.
Pick: Goffin in 3
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Goffin. Who knows if he ever gets another chance.
Med in three.I hope so because he’s been in two finals.Deserves it.
So does Goffin, though .
Goffin is certainly in with a chance, however if I had to choose a player to play for my life it would be Medvedev on this surface right now especially after taking down the number 1 hardcourt player in the world.
Medvedev in 2
If Medvedev plays anything like he did for the last set and a half, Goffin has almost no chance. I’m not sure who would, because (as Novak said after the match), Daniil was pretty much hitting two first serves (around 130 mph) with very few double faults. I doubt he can bring that level again for an extended time. (If it’s somehow his new normal he will soon be the world’ #1 player). But even a good level from him should be enough to take it. He has a lot more firepower, but he also is playing with beautiful touch. Med in 2.
Yeah, and the question is would this Med have beaten Nadal?
Probably not that Nadal from Rogers final. But Med will still improve and can become a force. He can beat the top 3 next year already.
Sure he could, but that also depends on how Rafa plays. Rafa returns from way behind the baseline, giving him more time to read and return Medvedev’s serves.
Rafa plays with more varieties than Djoko, perhaps he could rush Medvedev a bit by coming forward more often and gives Medvedev different looks. Also Rafa’s topspin FH plays to Medvedev ‘s flat BH, so I don’t know how that works out. Medvedev seems able to go BH to BH with Djoko in rallies when both hit flat DHBHs.
I do feel Djoko wasn’t at his best in this match, in fact I feel he wasn’t playing his best tennis after AO this year. If Djoko played like at the AO, I don’t think Medvedev could beat him. The thing is, the big three can no longer play their best tennis week in week out, so other players could take advantage – like Rublev here vs Fed; Medvedev vs Djoko, Foggy and Tsitsipas vs Rafa on clay this year.
I don’t think Djokovic is seriously going after Masters’ titles any more. He wants the slams and at his age it’s impossible to play at his top level for the whole year. He also wants the year end #1. Winning the USO will give him that but if he loses there he’ll do much better in the fall than he did last year. Also it’s not clear how much the elbow may be bothering him.
Maybe Djoko does feel confident when playing on the HCs, so winning or losing at the HC Masters may not affect how he plays at the HC slams. On clay, we saw him very eager to gain as much match play and confidence as possible before arriving at the FO ( in fact he did better at the three clay Masters than the three HC Masters), perhaps he knew that winning the FO this time, ie winning four slams in a row, and a second career slam, would seal his status as one of the Goats if not the only Goat, so he’s more eager when playing on clay?
On grass at Wimbledon, there aren’t that many players who could challenge him realistically speaking; it’s still only Fed (whom he beat in two finals there) and possibly Rafa if Rafa could bring his 2018 form this year.
But, I have to say that at the HC slam at USO, Rafa could play well enough to challenge him, when Rafa is 2-1 vs Djoko in finals there, and for some reasons, the USO isn’t a slam where Djoko has that much success (even though he reached eight finals there, he managed to win only three of them), and there are other players who could make things complicated for him there even when they may not beat him. It’s risky that he doesn’t have enough match play on HC to be ready for the USO, esp after he had spent much energy winning at Wimbledon.
Oh, Djoker wants that 2nd RG very badly, no question about that, and he knows that a fit Rafa is a very very tough opponent. I think that desire got to him in his semi there with Thiem. ND is way, way tougher mentally than he used to be but he can still crack under pressure.
I think he has plenty of match play going into the USO. Barring a seriously bad draw or injury he’ll have at least three rounds there to “warm up” on cruise control. When Rafa won the USO in 2010 he was not impressive in either Canada or Cincy – losing in semis and quarters.
Ramara, you have to take into account their age. Rafa in 2010 was 24 then; Djoko in 2019 is age 32 so I believe that Wimbledon final took a lot out of him. He had played better in 2018 imo, and I have doubts now that he’s going to win the USO this year. I may be wrong of course, but it seems his elbow is bothering him, and his performance at the Wimbledon final wasn’t that brilliant (compared to 2014/2015) and Fed was the better player the whole match but still lost it to Djoko.
In fact I feel Rafa plays better than Djoko in the NA HC Masters, and I think Rafa may be co-favourite with Djoko at the USO.
Agree with you about Nole, Luckystar.
Also think it could be Rafa’s year to win USO.
Another thing is, if Djoko wants to be YE no.1, winning at slams is not enough, he has to do well at the Masters to gather enough points.
Well if he is injured as I think he is, he won’t be able to get close to everything he wants. As a Nole fan, I don’t care if he makes YE #1. Nor do I want him to further compromise himself, if he’s injured (which I’ve suspected he is). Maybe he could skip the rest of the year and be healthy for AO and enjoy playing tennis when he does.
I’d guess he does care about Masters 1000’s.
Should be fun….Med in 2.
Goffin in 3
My Winston-Salem Picks:
QF –
PCB d. Paire
Evans d. Sousa
Hurkacz d. Tiafoe
Querrey d. Kecmanovic
SF –
PCB d. Evans
Querrey d. Hurkacz
F –
Querrey d. PCB
I picked the same SF and Final.
But I couldn’t do the WTA bracket for New York. It looked to chaotic to even fill it in: so many are cancelling. It’s impossible.
I had PCB beating Hurkacz but same four people .
No doubt both brackets will be a disaster with players not wanting to play all week,even without the draw reshuffling!
Great win for Madison Keys, I always want to pick her to go far but she’s always injured.
I’d be surprised if Goffin pulls off the upset. Third final in arrow for Medvedev, he definitely deserves this one.
The measured way he celebrated his victory over Novak makes me think he won’t suffer the emotional tiredness players get after defeating one of the big 3.
If he is physically close to 90-100%, Medvedev will get this title.
Would love to see Goffin win this. Probably in 3.
It would truly call for a bottle of Champagne! Goffin winning Cincy = celebration for a Goffin fan.
Congrats to Medvedev and his fans!! He did back it up!!!
Great win for Medvedev! Hopefully he has still something left in the tank for the USO and hasn’t accumulated too much mileage. But after having played in three finals in a row, winning one of them, he certainly won’t fly under the radar anymore.
Why wouldn’t he be fresh for the US? He’s young , and a full week off.
Medvedev himself said that he was exhausted and cramping at the end of the match. And he avoided the looming re-break from Goffin by serving very risky. Who knows what would’ve happened if Goffin had broken him? It’s quite possible that Medvedev would’ve run out of steam. When he narrowly avoided the re-break, he showed his great mental potential.
It would’ve been very interesting to see what would’ve happened if the Cincy final would’ve featured a re-match between Rafa and Medvedev, which would’ve been definitely a possibility if we consider the draw. Would Rafa have won as easily as in Montreal, or would Medvedev have come up with a different and more successful strategy? It will definitely be very interesting to see them meeting again soon.
Littlefoot, if it’s the exhausted Medvedev meeting Rafa in the final at Cincy, he won’t be able to beat Rafa, wind or no wind.
Medvedev needs to be physically fit and serving bombs in his first and second serves without missing to give Rafa problems. Anything less, Rafa will most likely be the one having the upper hand.
I agree, Medvedev in the Cincy final was in no shape to beat Rafa. It will be interesting to see what happens when they’re both in good shape. I still think that Rafa would’ve the upper hand, but it might be less lopsided.
Medvedev gambled against Novak and in his last service game against Goffin, when he started to hit only first services. And it paid off. But I doubt that he could keep up doing this in best-of-five matches.
It’s interesting that five of the young guns have made it into the top ten by now: Thiem, Medvedev,Zverev, Tsitsipas and Khachanov. And I suspect that most of them will have some staying power. And FAA might follow soon. The next generation has arrived – sort of. But while some of them have won Masters 1000 tournaments and have managed to beat some of the Big Three occasionally, there’s still a huge gap between these guys and Novak/Rafa/Fed. The young guns are still not good enough.
Didn’t watch the final in full, doze off mid way through the second set; when I woke up, I saw Medvedev holding the trophy. Congrats to him for finally winning in the end.
He looked exhausted out there in set two. I thought he wasn’t playing as well compared to his SF against Djoko, but Goffin seemed to fade away in the second set after losing the TB in the first set.
At least Medvedev hung tough there till the finish line, despite his exhaustion. He said he couldn’t even celebrate the way he would like to after winning the match, being so exhausted. But, what an achievement, to play B2B Masters finals and winning his first Masters title in just his second final.
He’s now world no.5, a deserving one imo, as he certainly plays better tennis now than Tsitsipas or Sasha or Nishikori.