Montpellier, Sofia, and Cordoba previews and predictions

The Australian Open is over, Davis Cup qualifying is out of the way, and now the February grind is here. As usual, the month features 12 tournaments, three in each of four weeks, on three different surfaces (indoor hard, outdoor hard, and clay), at two point levels (250s and 500s). It all begins in Montpellier, Sofia, and Cordoba, where David Goffin, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Karen Khachanov, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Stan Wawrinka, and Fabio Fognini are among those in action.

Open Sud de France

Where: Montpellier, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 524,340 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Lucas Pouille
Defending champion: Lucas Pouille

Draw analysis: Pouille won’t have to worry about defending 250 points from last year’s title in order to save his ranking, as he picked up—from entirely out of nowhere, it should be noted—720 points with a surprising run to the Australian Open semifinals. The Frenchman should finally be playing with confidence (and without pressure), so he may be able to emerge from a section of the Montpellier bracket that also includes Philipp Kohlschreiber and Ernests Gulbis. In what is obviously a French-heavy draw, potential semifinal foes for Pouille are Tsonga, Gilles Simon, and Jeremy Chardy.

A similarly wide-open bottom half is home to Goffin, Denis Shapovalov, Benoit Paire, Tomas Berdych, and Ivo Karlovic. At 39 years old, Karlovic is still going strong and could give Shapovalov some serious trouble in round two. Goffin, Paire, and Berdych will duke it out in what is a difficult last quarter of the bracket.

First-round upset alert: Radu Albot over (5) Philipp Kohlschreiber. Kohlschreiber is off to an unspectacular start to the 2019 campaign, with losses to Berdych (Doha first round), Tennys Sandgren (Auckland semifinals), and Joao Sousa (Australian Open second round). Six years the German’s junior at 29, Albot registers just nine spots off his career-high ranking at No. 90 in the world. This should be a relatively even baseline battle; certainly a winnable one for the underdog.

Hot: Lucas Pouille, Gilles Simon, Pierre-Hugues Herbert, Ivo Karlovic, Ugo Humbert, Thomas Fabbiano

Cold: David Goffin, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Jiri Vesely, Mischa Zverev, Steve Darcis, Marcel Granollers

Semifinal predictions: Gilles Simon over Lucas Pouille and Tomas Berdych over Ivo Karlovic

Final: Simon over Berdych

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Sofia Open

Where: Sofia, Bulgaria
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 524,340 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Karen Khachanov
Defending champion: Mirza Basic

Draw analysis: Khachanov may be the top seed, but he is unlikely to have an easy time of things in what will probably go down as one of the most impressive 250-point fields in 2019. The 11^th-ranked Russian could have a tough opener on his hands against either Matteo Berrettini or Denis Istomin and he is on a collision course for the quarterfinals with Wawrinka and for the semis with a red-hot Roberto Bautista Agut. The winner of a tough first-rounder between Andreas Seppi and Marton Fucsovics could also make some noise in the top half of the draw.

On the other side, up-and-coming stars and somewhat bitter rivals Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev are in line for a semifinal showdown. Tsitsipas’ road through Sofia as he gets back in action following his semifinal run Down Under is a friendly one. Medvedev, on the other hand, likely awaits Robin Haase in his opener and either Nikoloz Basilashvili or Martin Klizan would be capable of presenting problems in the quarters.

First-round upset alert: (WC) Viktor Troicki over (7) Gael Monfils. Monfils has not been 100 percent in recent months (what’s new?) and he has played only two matches in 2019, losing in the Australian Open second round to Taylor Fritz. The Frenchman has spent most of his time hanging out with girlfriend Elina Svitolina and documenting their entire lives on Instagram. Troicki is making his way back from physical problems of his own and he showed encouraging signs with successful qualification in Melbourne followed by an eventual four-set loss to Tsitsipas in round two.

Hot: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Danill Medvedev, Roberto Bautista Agut, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Andreas Seppi

Cold: Gael Monfils, Stan Wawrinka, Denis Istomin, Adrian Mannarino

Semifinal predictions: Roberto Bautista Agut over Karen Khachanov and Daniil Medvedev over Stefanos Tsitsipas

Final: Bautista Agut over Medvedev

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Cordoba Open

Where: Cordoba, Argentina
Surface: Clay
Prize money: $527,880
Points: 250

Top seed: Fabio Fognini
Defending champion: None (inaugural event)

Draw analysis: The Golden Swing through South America gets underway with this tournament that has moved from Quito to Cordoba. That is music to the ears of Argentines such as Diego Schwartzman, who has to be among the title favorites. The third seed’s draw is favorable, too, before he potentially runs into Fognini in the last four. In fact, Fognini’s path on paper is also laughably simple; it’s hard to see anything other than Fognini vs. Schwartzman in the top half of the bracket on Saturday.

Marco Cecchinato could await tougher tests at the bottom of the draw, with up-and-coming Jaume Munar likely looming in round two and possibly Argentina’s own Leonardo Mayer in the quarterfinals. Pablo Carreno Busta, who is back on the court for the first time since his controversial Australian Open exit, will have to be careful in his opener that will most likely see an in-form Cameron Norrie on the other side of the net.

First-round upset alert: (WC) Carlos Berlocq over (6) Malek Jaziri. Berlocq’s chances have nothing to do with his current level and everything to do the surface. The 35-year-old Argentine has basically disappeared (currently 135^th in the world), but he is at least winning the occasional match on the Challenger circuit. Moreover, Jaziri is just 1-3 this season (0-3 in his last three matches) and it is a mystery why the Tunisian is playing the clay-court Golden Swing instead of on European hard courts.

Hot: Fabio Fognini, Marco Cecchinato, Cameron Norrie, Jaume Munar

Cold: Leonardo Mayer, Pablo Cuevas, Albert Ramos-Vinolas

Semifinal predictions: Diego Schwartzman over Fabio Fognini and Pablo Carreno Busta over Marco Cecchinato

Final: Schwartzman over Carreno Busta

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