Rafael Nadal may be on the shelf, but Beijing and Tokyo are still traditionally loaded as they kick off an intriguing two weeks of action to conclude the Asian swing. Beijing is home to Juan Martin Del Potro, Alexander Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov, Fabio Fognini, and Gael Monfils this week. Tokyo, meanwhile, features Marin Cilic, Kevin Anderson, Kei Nishikori, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Nick Kyrgios, and Stan Wawrinka.
China Open
Where: Beijing, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $3,401,860
Points: 500
Top seed: Juan Martin Del Potro
2017 champion: Rafael Nadal (not playing)
Draw analysis: Although just two top-10 players are on hand in Beijing (a modest number by this tournament’s standards), 13 of the top 28 men in the world make up a particularly deep field. Del Potro and Zverev are the clear-cut favorites, but if they stumble the title could go in any number of directions. Potential stumbling blocks for the fourth-ranked Argentine include Karen Khachanov in round two and Fognini in the semifinals. Fognini, who toppled Del Potro in the Los Cabos final this summer, is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Bernard Tomic in Sunday’s Chengdu championship match.
Zverev arguably has a better draw at the bottom of the Beijing bracket. The other three seeds on that side—Dimitrov, Jack Sock, and Kyle Edmund—have been struggling. Roberto Bautista Agut is a tough opening opponent on paper, but the Spaniard is also mired in a slump. Thus the sailing could be smooth for Zverev, but Fernando Verdasco or Nikoloz Basilashvili could present some challenge in the quarters.
First-round upset alert: (WC) Marcos Baghdatis over (8) Marco Cecchinato. At long last, Cecchinato finally won an ATP-level match on a hard court (two weeks ago in St. Petersburg over Lukas Lacko). Hard-court win No. 2 probably won’t come immediately afterward. The Italian at least looks like he has become somewhat capable on the hard stuff, but this is Baghdatis’ favorite surface.
Hot: Juan Martin Del Potro, Fabio Fognini, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Karen Khachanov, Joao Sousa, Matteo Berrettini
Cold: Grigor Dimitrov, Marco Cecchinato, Jack Sock, Roberto Bautista Agut, Filip Krajinovic, Andrey Rublev, Gael Monfils
Quarterfinal predictions: Juan Martin Del Potro over Borna Coric, Joao Sousa over Andreas Seppi, Grigor Dimitrov over Peter Gojowyczk, and Alexander Zverev over Nikoloz Basilashvili
Semifinals: Del Potro over Sousa and Zverev over Dimitrov
Final: Del Potro over Zverev
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Rakuten Japan Open
Where: Tokyo, Japan
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $1,781,930
Points: 500
Top seed: Marin Cilic
2017 champion: David Goffin (not playing)
Draw analysis: Nishikori is already a two-time champion in front of the home crowd in Tokyo, and a third title would go a long way toward putting him in serious contention for a Nitto ATP Finals berth. The world No. 12, who missed what is perhaps his favorite tournament due to injury last fall, has a favorable draw for his return to Tokyo. Up first is Japanese wild card is Yuichi Sugita, while potential seeded quarterfinal opponent Tsitsipas appears to wearing down at the end of a long season. Nishikori and Anderson are on a collision course for the semis, but Anderson has a tougher road with Frances Tiafoe likely in round two and possibly Kyrgios in the last eight.
In the top half of the bracket, the unseeded contingent is extremely dangerous. Wawrinka and Shapovalov could go head-to-head in the second round, with the winner perhaps in line to meet Cilic in the quarters. In-form players Daniil Medvedev and Martin Klizan qualified for the main draw, while Taylor Fritz earned a special exemption by advancing to the Chengdu semifinals. Medvedev, Klizan, Diego Schwartzman, and Steve Johnson are potential semifinal foes for Raonic, who is a three-time runner-up in Tokyo (twice to Nishikori).
First-round upset alert: Denis Shapovalov over (7) Hyeon Chung. Based on current form, this would not actually be an upset. Due mainly to physical problems, Chung has not been the same player that he was from January through March. Shapovalov, who may be ranked ahead of the South Korean by the end of 2018, recently advanced to the U.S. Open third round and the St. Petersburg quarterfinals.
Hot: Taylor Fritz, Alex de Minaur, Gilles Simon, Yoshihito Nishioka, Martin Klizan, Daniil Medvedev
Cold: Hyeon Chung, Stan Wawrinka, Adrian Mannarino, Nick Kyrgios
Quarterfinal predictions: Denis Shapovalov over Marin Cilic, Milos Raonic over Martin Klizan, Kei Nishikori over Alex de Minaur, and Kevin Anderson over Nick Kyrgios
Semifinals: Raonic over Shapovalov and Nishikori over Anderson
Final: Nishikori over Raonic
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who ya got?
DelPo and KNish seem solid picks.
Can you have a “loaded draw” missing the world #1, 2 and 3? 🙁
Is Goffin injured?
still hung over, probably
at a 500, sure. These aren’t Masters 1000s. It’s not like you can expect top 3 players to be there….
Rafa would be there if he were fit. And where’s Thiem? Taking off 2 weeks in a row? Is he tied to a chair somewhere in Russia?
I don’t know if you realized that Tokyo is indoors this year and ADM has never played indoors.
Tokyo : Semis : Raonic over Stan ,Nish over Anderson Final : Same as Ricky
Wawrinka cold?? Thought he was coming back into form
Beijing : Same as Ricky except Fognini in semis (d. Sousa )
ADM could have a tricky one against a confident-sounding Daniel, who I boldly picked to beat Tsitsipas .
hot/cold is relative to the player’s normal standards
cold for Wawrinka wouldn’t be cold for Malek Jaziri. So yes, Wawrinka is cold.
He’s warming up though..still capable losing first round.
Congrats to Daniil, winner of Tokyo Open this year, we’ll done. He has won three titles this year including this 500 event. He’s quite a special player, not the modern day hard hitter type of player.
the real deal