World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Murray vs. Wawrinka

Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka will be squaring off for the 17th time in their careers when they wrap up their round-robin portion of the World Tour Finals on Thursday afternoon.

Murray leads the head-to-head series 9-7, but Wawrinka has taken three of their last four encounters dating back to the start of 2013. They also faced each other during round-robin action at the 2015 year-end championship, with Wawrinka getting the job done 7-6(4), 6-4. Their only previous meeting this season came in the semifinals of the French Open, where Murray prevailed 6-4, 6-2, 4-6, 6-2.

The Scot, of course, has been absolutely on fire since finishing runner-up at Roland Garros to Novak Djokovic. He has won seven of his last nine tournaments and is a ridiculous 47-3 in his last 50 matches dating back to the start of the grass-court swing, including a current 21-match winning since he lost to Juan Martin Del Potro in a five-set Davis Cup semifinal thriller. The new world No. 1 opened in London with a 6-3, 6-2 rout of Marin Cilic before outlasting Kei Nishikori 6-7(9), 6-4, 6-4 in three hours and 20 minutes on Wednesday afternoon.

Wawrinka has slumped since capturing his third Grand Slam title at the U.S. Open. The third-ranked Swiss suffered disappointing losses in St. Petersburg, Shanghai, Basel, and Paris, and it looked like his relative malaise would continue at the O2 Arena. An opening 6-2, 6-3 setback against Nishikori suggested that Wawrinka was on course for another early exit, but he raised his level dramatically and remained in semifinal contention with a 7-6(3), 7-6(3) victory over Cilic on Wednesday night.

“All I know is if I want to have a chance to qualify, I need to win,” Wawrinka explained. “That’s all I know. That’s all I’m trying to do. I’m going to try to play my best tennis to beat the world No. 1. It’s going to be a tough match. He’s playing his best tennis. It’s going to be interesting. I’m happy to play here in front of his home crowd; I’m sure it’s going to be a great atmosphere.”

Neither player has secured a spot in the semis. Murray would clinch the No. 1 seed out of Group A with a win and would advance at least in some fashion simply by taking a set. Wawrinka would lock up a place in the semis with a straight-set victory, and if he prevails in three he would need Cilic to snag at least one set off Nishikori on Friday night.

The guesswork, however, will likely be taken out of the equation. Current form, despite Wawrinka’s performance against Cilic, heavily favors Murray. With 200 more points at stake in his quest for the year-end No. 1 ranking and a semifinal spot at the O2 not yet guaranteed, a motivated Murray should treat the home crowd to another win.

Pick: Murray in 2

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