The World Cup semifinals are upon us, and what a lineup it is. Every one of the four highest-ranked teams in FIFA has advanced, setting up France vs. Spain on Tuesday in Dallas and England vs. Argentina on Wednesday in Atlanta.
I went 3-0 on the quarterfinals, cashing Under 2.5 goals in France vs. Morocco, Spain 3-Way ML against Belgium, and both teams to score in England vs. Norway. Let’s keep the momentum rolling and dive into my best bet for the World Cup semifinal between France and Spain.
France vs. Spain odds
To advance: France -155
To advance: Spain +125
3-Way ML: France +135
3-Way ML: Spain +220
3-Way ML: Draw +220
Over 2.5 goals -112
Under 2.5 goals -108
France -0.5 goals +130
Spain +0.5 goals -160
France vs. Spain best bet: Under 2.5 goals (-108)
This should be a fantastic contrast in styles featuring France’s dynamic attack and Spain’s stingy back line. However, betting on the under isn’t necessarily a statement that Spain is going to dictate the pace of this game. After all, France is also more than happy to put the clamps down on defense and do just enough offensively to win. After coasting through the group stage, Les Bleus beat Paraguay 1-0 and Morocco 2-0. Through six World Cup matches, they have recorded four clean sheets and have conceded a total of just two goals. Not even quarterfinalist Norway managed to score more than once against the 2018 champions. They allowed zero big chances in their last three games against Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco.
Until its quarterfinal against Belgium, Spain had not conceded a goal since the round of 16 at the 2022 World Cup. That’s right; La Roja had posted six consecutive shutouts — an all-time record in the history of this competition — before beating the Belgians 2-1 on Friday. The 2010 champs blanked Cabo Verde (in a 0-0 draw), Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay in Group H before keeping Austria and Portugal out of the net to begin the knockout rounds.
Offensively, though, only Mikel Oyarzabal (four) and Mikel Merino (two) have scored more than one goal for Spain in this tournament. Only Marc Cucurella (two) has more than one assist. Lamine Yamal has not tallied a point since scoring Spain’s first goal of the World Cup in the second group-stage game against Saudi Arabia.
The one danger is that France scores early and then the game really opens up, forcing Spain to become more aggressive than it would like to be. But there is no reason to expect such a development, and not just because of how good the Spaniards are on defense. France did not find the back of the net until the 45th minute against Sweden, the 70th minute against Paraguay (on a penalty kick by Kylian Mbappe), and the 60th minute against Morocco.
These are simply two of the best defensive teams in the world. Although France is dangerous offensively, as well, the smart play seems to be backing no more than 2.5 goals scored through 90 minutes.
France 2-1. Spain’s best chance is finding an early goal to change the dynamics. But they are not playing as well as expected many of their stars not at their best.
Spain have had France’s number in recent matches.
I think De La Fuente knows how to beat them.
They have also faced better teams in this WC, especially Portugal and Belgium, and they only conceded one goal.
France did beat Morocco, but they were just playing for penalties.
Come on England, don’t care which team they play in the final, as long as they get there and win
Spain 2-1 in normal time cause France have a way of messing these things up.
another winner