The 2026 World Cup comes to a grand conclusion on Sunday with the final between the top two teams in the current FIFA rankings. Either Spain or Argentina will lift the cup in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
I am on a 5-0 run dating back to the quarterfinals, cashing Under 2.5 goals in France vs. Morocco, Spain 3-Way ML against Belgium, both teams to score in England vs. Norway, Under 2.5 goals in Spain vs. France, and both teams to score in England vs. Argentina. Let’s keep the momentum going and dive into my best bet for the World Cup final between Spain and Argentina.
Also check out my best player prop bets for Spain vs. Argentina.
Spain vs. Argentina odds
To win the cup: Spain -150
To win the cup: Argentina +130
3-Way ML: Spain +125
3-Way ML: Argentina +260
3-Way ML: Draw +195
Over 2.5 goals +135
Under 2.5 goals -165
Spain -0.5 goals +125
Argentina +0.5 goals -155
Spain vs. Argentina best bet: Spain to win the cup (-150)
Although you can never feel overly safe when betting against Lionel Messi, there are simply too many advantages in Spain’s favor. Argentina may have the best player on the field, but Spain is the best team. Since drawing 0-0 with Cabo Verde to begin its World Cup campaign, La Roja has been the most impressive squad in the tournament. France arguably looked like the cream of the crop heading into the semifinals, but it promptly got manhandled 2-0 by Spain.
Argentina, on the other hand, has been living on thin ice. Messi and company needed extra time to beat Cabo Verde in the round of 32, came back from a late 2-0 deficit to stun Egypt in the round of 16, again went to extra time with Switzerland in the quarterfinals, and erased a late 1-0 deficit to break England’s hearts with a 2-1 semifinal victory.
The Argentines have used up far more emotional and physical energy than Spain, and now they have to play on one less day of rest (they beat England on Wednesday after Spain eased past France on Tuesday). In 13 of the last 14 major international events (World Cup and Euros) for men and women, the team with extra rest after the semifinals went on to win the championship game.
Meanwhile, Spain has given up a grand total of one goal during this entire tournament. Until its quarterfinal against Belgium, La Roja had not conceded a goal since the round of 16 at the 2022 World Cup. That’s right; Spain posted six consecutive World Cup shutouts (an all-time record in the history of this competition), gave up one goal to Belgium, and then shut out France.
On the other hand, defense has not been a strong suit for Argentina. Since recording two clean sheets to begin their tournament, the defending champions have conceded in five consecutive caps — a stretch that includes two goals apiece by Cabo Verde and Egypt.
Argentina’s string of late-game heroics will tempt you to overthink this one. But don’t. Spain is the best team in the world and it is playing on more rest.
Spain looked untouchable and very impressive against France. It was as if only one team is playing and the other team’s role was reduced to mere spectators. Unless Spain plays well below their potential there is not a lot of hope for Argentina.
Vamos Espana!
I just tuned into the final and saw Carlos!
Was the orange moron booed? I sincerely hope so.
I don’t even like football.
i win again!
Vamos Spain, Messi is such a tool, ignoring some little kid wanting his shirt signed, over inflated ego can’t stand the idea that the other team were better than the Argentinians, hope he retires good riddance 😡
Lovely to see Carlos cheering on Spain, didn’t want to see Trumps ugly mug there though
Trump trying to get in the photo when Spain lifted the trophy
just more typical Trump bullshit
Meanwhile the price of oil…
Investments and 401K’s have been steady and climbing. Would you rather have another Plandemic aka Scandemic?
Argentina’s behaviour was truly disgraceful and an indelible stain on the beautiful sport of ⚽. I am Glad they lost and so are hundreds of millions football fans across the Globe. Congratulations to Spain. 🏆
agreed