There will be a first-time Grand Slam champion crowned when the women’s singles final takes center stage at Wimbledon on Saturday afternoon.
Karolina Muchova vs. Linda Noskova is without question a surprising matchup, but it is one that did not come out of nowhere. Both players are ranked in the top 12 and both have been on fire throughout the grass-court swing. Muchova is 11-1 on the green stuff this summer with a title in Bad Homburg; Noskova owns the same 11-1 record and lifted a WTA trophy in Berlin.
Each woman has been outstanding this fortnight, as well. Muchova’s trip to the final featured wins over 2024 Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova, four-time Grand Slam winner Naomi Osaka, and two-time major champ Coco Gauff. Noskova has not dropped a single set in her last three matches, a stretch that includes a defeat of 2025 Australian Open winner Madison Keys.
That, however, is where the similarities end.
Muchova, 29, is a veteran on tour — and she has history of success at the Grand Slam level. The world No. 9 has now reached at least the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam on eight occasions, including at least the semis four times and the final once. She played very well in her previous major final appearance, losing to Iga Swiatek 6-2, 5-7, 6-4 at the 2023 French Open. Noskova, 21, is a relative newcomer. The world No. 12 made a run to the 2024 Aussie Open quarters but after that did nothing in slams until now. Prior to arriving in London this summer, Noskova’s nine most recent Grand Slam results were second round, second round, first round, first round, first round, fourth round, third round, third round, and first round.
This is almost certain to be a tight match, and obviously one in which the stakes could not be higher. Muchova is battle-tested — both at this particular tournament and throughout her career. She should have the advantage in the all-important intangibles department on Saturday.
Pick: Muchova in 3
So sad for Karo. I way prefer her to Noskova.
Me too, she actually had the hardest draw too
Had she won Muchova would have been the most popular champion in recent memory at SW19.
tough loss
Totally agree re Muchova
And I agree as well .
Though Ive warmed to Noskova after her speech
agreed
There’s a lot of luck in winning a slam unless you are big 3 & tc.
Last year Swiatek got a ton of it with a powder puff draw and then a final where Anisimova was destroyed by nerves. By comparison, Karo had a lot of tough matches.
Yesterday I was thinking about all the missed bp chances early in the third. If she had broken early she probably would have won. But the real issue was the first set and much of the second where she was so tense and not moving well. You can’t give up a set and a half to an opponent who is a natural grass courter.
Vondrousova got quite a bit of luck when she won as well. Pegula was beating her pretty comprehensively in the quarters until the rain delay. Then Svito didn’t really show up in the semis and Ons Jabeur had one of her disastrous finals where her level dropped a ton after being brilliant against Saba in the semis.
Karo is a better grass court player than either Swiatek or Vondrousova.
Ons another example of a player who should have won a slam. Hasn’t had Karo’s hideous list of injuries but her nerves destroy her in finals.
Same thing happened to Lisicki in 2013, beat all the top players in her half of the draw,played out of her mind to beat Serena, Bartoli didn’t beat one top player, and Lisicki fell to pieces in the final, it’s a tough pill to swallow I must admit
That’s one aspect of the WTA I really don’t like. The great performance s followed by total collapse. It means that the winner hasn’t necessarily played that well. It’s not something you generally see on the ATP because of the elite dominance of the big 4 and then Sincaraz.
I am sorry but don’t let emotions cloud your judgement. There wasn’t any luck Noskova played better and could have easily won 6- 2 6 -2 by the same logic Muchova could have easily lost to Coco. Coco missed a ton of breakpoints even missed a MP on her serve. Muchova escaped with a win despite not breaking her opponents serve in last 2 sets. Noskova got tight with the finish line in sight that allowed Muchova to win 5 games in a row. ONS didn’t win a major because she wasn’t good enough when it mattered most (in 2 major finals). You have to win 7 matches not 6. It’s not that Bartoli arrived out of nowhere and won Wimbledon, she had history of success on grass beating Henin and reaching the final in 2007 and her win over Serena in 2011 to name a few. Bartoli rose to the challenge Lisciki didn’t. Lisciki herself wasn’t a model of consistency she was the type of player who could beat anybody and also lose to anybody.
Nosko SHOULD have won 6-2, 6-2
Noskova was just better (and is better)
True
Swiatek is a 6 time major winner. You can get lucky once but not 6 times. Even at Wimbledon last year She beat Anisimova who had taken out Sabalenka. Obviously There is no dominant player on WTA like a Sinner or Alcaraz last 7 majors have produced 7 different champions. Upsets arent unexpected draws often open up but it works both ways. Swiatek possibly benefitted from the draw last year at Wimbledon but this year She and Coco both lost early at the French Open, and all the dangerous inform players , Andreeva, Kostyuk, Svitolina were on the other side of the draw
Yet Sabalenka still couldn’t take advantage. After all is said and done anybody who wins 7 matches on the bounce is a deserving winner. Sometimes the draw works in your favor sometimes against you.