Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Medvedev

It will be a showdown between two first-time Wimbledon semifinalists when Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev collide on Friday afternoon at the All-England Club. Of course, this isn’t your traditional “first-time semifinalists” matchup. They are also two of the three best players in the world.

Neither Alcaraz nor Medvedev had ever even been to the quarterfinals in SW19 prior to this fortnight, but it has been a much different story in 2023.

Having played only two tournaments on grass in his career before this summer began, to say that Alcaraz has found his footing on the slick stuff would be an understatement. The top-ranked Spaniard won the Queen’s Club title and it has been full steam ahead for him at Wimbledon with wins over Jeremy Chardy, Alexandre Muller, Nicolas Jarry, Matteo Berrettini, and Holger Rune. Only Jarry and Berrettini managed to take a set through the first five rounds, and Alcaraz impressively thumped Rune 7-6(3), 6-4, 6-4 on Thursday.

Medvedev’s warmup for Wimbledon did not go as well; he lost right away in ‘s-Hertogenbosch to Adrian Mannarino and fell in the Halle quarterfinals to Roberto Bautista Agut. However, the third-ranked Russian has predictably looked much more motivated in a slam setting–a slam from which he was banned in 2022. Medvedev secured his semifinal spot by beating Arthur Fery, Mannarino, Marton Fucsovics, Jiri Lehecka, and Chris Eubanks.

Although Medvedev destroyed Alcaraz 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 in their only previous Wimbledon encounter, that was an entirely different Alcaraz two years ago. They did not face each other again until the 2023 Indian Wells final, when this new-and-improved version of Alcaraz cruised 6-3, 6-2.

Something in between those two extremes will likely be on the menu for Friday. Medvedev is playing too well and serving too big to get blown out on grass, but Alcaraz has been the better player this whole tournament against considerably tougher competition. The 20-year-old should be on his way to a second Grand Slam final.

Pick: Alcaraz in 4