Wimbledon R4 preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Rublev

Amazingly, only one all-seeded showdown is taking place in the bottom half of the men’s singles draw as competition in the prestigious second week of Wimbledon begins on Sunday afternoon.

Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev made their section of the bracket hold up through the first week of the Championships, but it was not easy for either man. Alcaraz shockingly required five sets against Fabio Fognini in round one and–after beating Oliver Tarvet in straights–dropped a set to Jan-Lennard Struff on Friday. Rublev went to a fourth-set tiebreaker with Laslo Djere and defeated Lloyd Harris in four tight sets before cruising past Adrian Mannarino in three.

The result is just a fourth-ever showdown between these two players. Alcaraz leads the head-to-head series 2-1, with victories at the Nitto ATP Finals in 2023 (7-5, 6-2) and 2024 (6-3, 7-6(8)) in addition to a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 setback at the 2023 Rome Masters.

 
Another win for Rublev is obviously unexpected at best, but there are reasons to think the Russian can be competitive. He made a run to the Wimbledon quarterfinals two years ago and also reached the fourth round in 2021. So even though the world No. 14 has been struggling of late, he is confident on grass–and he certainly looked like it against Mannarino. Rublev has been broken a mere twice through three rounds this fortnight.

Although Alcaraz is on an amazing 21-match winning streak dating back to Rome, he has not been entirely dominant during this stretch. The Spaniard has surrendered at least one set in nine of his last 14 matches.

That is only to say, of course, that Rublev could hang around for a while. Actually pulling off the upset is an entirely different proposition. After all, Alcaraz is a five-time Grand Slam winner and he is the two-time defending champion of Wimbledon. Look for the 22-year-old to raise his level once he starts getting tested, just as he did against Fognini and Struff.

Pick: Alcaraz in 4

Ben Rothenberg and I break down the Wimbledon results and upcoming matchups on his No Challenges Remaining podcast