Wimbledon R1 previews and predictions: Alcaraz vs. Fognini, Bautista Agut vs. Norrie

As the defending Wimbledon champion, Carlos Alcaraz opens with Monday’s first match on Centre Court, and he will face Fabio Fognini. Roberto Bautista Agut and Cameron Norrie are also on the Day 1 schedule.

Fabio Fognini vs. (2) Carlos Alcaraz

The first match on Centre Court is in honor of the defending champion, and it will presumably be Fognini’s last appearance at the most historic spot in tennis. Fognini has announced that he will retire at some point in 2025, so this is his Wimbledon swansong. The 38-year-old Italian has not won a single match on the main tour this season and has barely even won matches at Challengers or in ATP qualifying. That is why he is all the way down at No. 138 in the world.

To say that Fognini’s draw is a bad one would be a gross understatement–it’s the absolute worst possible. Not only is Alcaraz the two-time defending champion, but he is also coming off another French Open title and a triumph on the grass courts of Queen’s Club. Alcaraz and Fognini have faced each other twice before, both times on the red clay of Rio de Janeiro. The second-ranked Spaniard prevailed 6-2, 7-5 in 2022 and 6-7(5), 6-2, 6-4 in 2023. This figures to be a thorough beatdown, and it will probably turn into a borderline exhibition match for at least the last set and maybe even the last two.

Pick: Alcaraz in 3

Cameron Norrie vs. Roberto Bautista Agut

It will be a showdown between former Wimbledon semifinalists when Norrie and Bautista Agut go head-to-head on Monday. Bautista Agut’s run to the last four came in 2019, when he benefited from a favorable draw (Benoit Paire in the fourth round, Guido Pella in the quarterfinals) before falling to eventual champion Novak Djokovic. Norrie advanced to the semis in 2022, when he also had a great draw (David Goffin in the quarters) before succumbing to Djokovic.

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This could be the best and most competitive contest of the entire first round. Bautista Agut is a force on grass; the Spaniard also reached the Wimbledon fourth round in 2015, 2017, 2021, and 2024, and he made a recent semifinal appearance at Queen’s Club. Norrie is 5-0 in his last five first-round matches at the All-England Club and he reached the third round last summer (lost to Alexander Zverev 17-15 in a third-set tiebreaker). A slight edge may go to Norrie; he is eight years younger (29 to 37), has home-court advantage in front of the British crowd, and leads the head-to-head series against Bautista Agut 3-0.

Pick: Norrie in 5