Wimbledon final expert picks: Sinner vs. Alcaraz

Expert picks are back for another Grand Slam final between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, this time at Wimbledon. A three-team panel makes its predictions for Sunday’s showdown at the All-England Club.

Ricky: They say it’s better to be lucky than good, but it’s best to be both–and that’s what Sinner has been so far at Wimbledon. He got a retirement from Grigor Dimitrov while trailing two sets to love in the fourth round and faced a hobbled Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. At the same time, the world No. 1 looked very good through three rounds and again during a straight-set quarterfinal win over Ben Shelton. Now, there is no denying that Sinner trails the head-to-head series 8-4 and has lost five in a row to Alcaraz. Of course, this rivalry has been a lot closer than that. It’s been epic. Four of Alcaraz’s five victories during the streak have required a final set, including two in final-set ‘breakers. Last month’s French Open final was an instant classic in which Sinner was up triple-championship point. He should have won. I think the revenge aspect and the move from clay to grass can tip the scales to the Italian’s side. Obviously, Alcaraz is amazing on both surfaces–but he is even tougher to beat on the terre battue than he is on grass. It’s time for the H2H tide to turn back in Sinner’s favor. Sinner in 5: 7-6(5), 4-6, 5-7, 6-3, 6-4.

Cheryl: It’s the one we’ve all been waiting for. No offense to Taylor Fritz and Novak Djokovic, but after the bonanza of the French Open final, anything other than Alcaraz vs. Sinner on Sunday would have been a bit of a letdown. It’s world No. 1 vs. world No. 2; the quintessential shot-maker in Alcaraz against the ball-striking of Sinner. It’s speed vs. efficiency, flash vs. consistency. Do we know what to expect? Well, sort of. There is clearly a matchup issue at play for Sinner. He can literally beat the entire rest of the world (he has lost only three matches all year and two of them are to Alcaraz), but he has lost to the Spaniard five times in a row. Then again, the Italian managed to earn himself three championship points at the French Open. If not for Alcaraz’s unfathomable ability to control his nerves, Sinner would have come into grass-court season with both Grand Slam titles in 2025. A single point separated winner from loser THREE TIMES. Sinner was right there. At Wimbledon, Sinner has been more efficient–but Alcaraz has played more difficult opponents. Alcaraz is the player whose game is better suited for slippery surfaces, and it must be acknowledged that he is legitimately in Sinner’s head to some extent. I can’t pick against Alcaraz at his favorite tournament. Alcaraz in 5: 7-5, 6-4, 5-7, 6-7(5), 7-5.

Pete (Tennis Acumen): Going forward, it will be a relatively safe projection to pencil in Alcaraz and Sinner into the final of a draw at any major. Go with anyone else and it will be questioned–and rightfully so. Although Sinner did not advance to the final of this Grand Slam without dropping a set, as he did recently at Roland Garros, he stacked all of his Wimbledon drama a few rounds ago against Dimitrov. Everything else was business as usual. Alcaraz, on the other hand, had a few tense moments in his semifinal against a determined Fritz and also baffled the masses right out of the gate, having to go the distance against Fognini. At the end of the day, though, they meet yet again–as many predicted. Just as Sinner is piling up consecutive wins against Djokovic, Alcaraz has done the same against Sinner–even coming back from three championship points down to eventually take the French Open title last month. All credit to Sinner from bouncing back from that devastating loss to play his brand of tennis immediately thereafter. The Spaniard has won the last five in this series and has absolutely no intention to let anyone, even Sinner, deny him his third consecutive title at Wimbledon and a concurrent, back-to-back Roland Garros-Wimbledon double. Alcaraz in 4: 6-4, 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(4).