Wimbledon final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Kyrgios

Nick Kyrgios serves at the BB&T Atlanta Open/Getty Images

Expert picks are back for the Wimbledon men’s singles championship match between Novak Djokovic and Nick Kyrgios on Sunday afternoon. A two-team panel previews the highly-anticipated action and makes its predictions.

Ricky Dimon: A lot of tennis fans will complain about this matchup in terms of not wanting either guy to win. After all, these are generally considered to be two villains of the sport. However, there is no denying that in terms of actual tennis this is a fascinating matchup. Djokovic is the best returner in the world; Kyrgios is probably one of the two best servers in the world. Grass generally favors servers over returners, but everyone is well aware that Djokovic is the three-time defending champion at Wimbledon and a six-time winner overall. Both of these men are awesome on the green stuff. Thus a high-quality, highly competitive contest can be expected.

Although the Serb is a huge favorite, arguments can be made for Kyrgios. When he is motivated, he is one of the best all-around players on tour. It’s safe to say in a Grand Slam final against an all-time great this will be the most motivated he has ever been. Kyrgios played two focused, no-nonsense matches in the fourth round and quarterfinals before getting a walkover from Rafael Nadal. He is confident and also well rested. Djokovic has been nowhere near his best the entire tournament. That’s why I think it will be competitive. But I don’t think Kyrgios will win. Keep in mind that Djokovic was nowhere near his best at the 2021 Australian Open and 2021 French Open and he won both of those tournaments. The 20-time major champion lost to Daniil Medvedev in the 2021 U.S. Open final because the calendar-year slam pressure was too much, but otherwise the Big 3 have almost always owned non-Big 3 players at majors. Look for Kyrgios to join the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Jannik Sinner (and also Lorenzo Musetti and Taylor Fritz) as players who could have and maybe even should have defeated Djokovic only to get outclassed mentally in the end. Djokovic in 5: 3-6, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(7).

Cheryl Murray: Djokovic has never beaten Kyrgios (0-2 lifetime), Kyrgios has never come within spitting distance of a major title. Sunday is going to be a first for one of them. The matchup actually favors Kyrgios for a couple of reasons. First, he isn’t afraid of Djokovic in the least. His game — when he’s in top form — seems to be a bit much for the Serb. Second, Kyrgios’ serve (when it’s on) somewhat neutralizes Djokovic’s return, which is one of his greatest weapons. The surface is a wash; it’s usually a tick in Djokovic’s column, but Kyrgios is at his best on the lawns — so playing on grass probably isn’t an advantage for either player. And there is the small matter that Djokovic hasn’t been at his best all tournament.

What doesn’t favor Kyrgios is the pressure that comes with competing for a Grand Slam title. The Aussie has never even won a Masters 1000 event, much less a major. As we have seen with Stefanos Tsitsipas at the French Open last year and Daniil Medvedev at the Australian Open earlier this season, the pressure of the big moment is sometimes overwhelming. This is a winnable match for Kyrgios; whether he does it or not will largely depend on whether his occasional (frequent?) disdain for Djokovic overrides the pressure. I’m going out on a limb. Kyrgios in 4: 6-4, 2-6, 6-3, 7-5.

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31 Comments on Wimbledon final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Kyrgios

  1. Match Point, Rybakina. Congrats to Elina Rybakina! She is a surprise winner.

    Ons was not at her best, and Elina could hardly believe it.

  2. Very sad for Ons. That was hard to watch. Ons really seemed to get very frustrated and lost it mentally at times. She seemed to get very tense about not taking break points.
    I do quite like Rybakina and congrats to get but I am very sad for Ons. Hope she does win a slam soon.
    I still really miss Ash Barty. I love her game on grass.

    • Rybakina is Russian now settled in another country ? Lol…wonder what wimby n UK will say to this after banning all Russian n Belarusian players

      • Sanju, Rybakina started to play for Kasachstan 4 years ago. It was not a recent switch. I do not know why she made this move. Maybe, it was about Fed Cup and the Olympics, and if she was not amongst the top Russian players, she could not participate as a Russian.

  3. Ricky had tweeted few days back that its a possibility that wimby may hand trophies to rybakina and kyrgios..half of it came true..it will really take a monster effort and something unreal for second one to come true.

    Ons was clear fav today

  4. Last September there were appalling reports about Novak in the independent press. An extremely well respected Bosnian scholar and intellectual twee red angrily about Novak meeting with the head of a paramilitary group who had committed murder and rape. Novak also met with the Serbian secessionist leader Dodik, as he has several times before. Dodik is a straight up fascist who wants to replicate the ethnic cleansing of the 90s. He has revolting views including being a rampant homophobe and meets regularly with Mike Pence at their homophobia symposiums. Most experts think that if Ukraine hadn’t fought back so bravely against Russia, Russia would already have become involved there, murdering and raping.
    I have said nothing about this. Am saying it now.
    Novak is no hero.

    • I don’t think Novak is a homophobe. I just can’t see him as that . He is infact quiet touchy feely with fellow male players in practice etc and homophobes take extra care not to be touchy Feely with men even as bromance.

      • No he probably isnt. But he shouldn’t be fraternising with people who are extremely dangerous straight up fascists intent on violence on a mass scale.
        There is video evidence of him singing and laughing with them. Also, there are many others there. What sort of people do you suppose they are? Birds of a feather stick together as the saying goes.

        • Amy, while I have no problems to acknowledge that the Djoker is a magnificent tennis player – as far as only sporting aspects are concerned, one of the best ever – I have become increasingly unhappy about his choices and opinions which have nothing to do with tennis. While he might not personally share many of the more dubious or even downright nasty aspects of the Serbian people with whom he associates himself, he lends them his fame and reputation. And that is pretty bad. He also seems to develop more and more of a messiah complex, and his entourage encourages this! He seems to think that he is The Chosen One. His parents have said that he has been chosen to become the one and only GOAT. And IMO that is terrible. Religion and sport should be kept strictly separated! It’s ludicrous to assume that someone sits on a cloud and picks winners and losers of tennis matches! But someone who thinks that he has been chosen by higher authorities may show the kind of behavior Novaxx showed before the AO: the rules for normal earthlings don’t have to be obeyed by him. Novaxx is not the only tennis player who refused the vaccine. Nick Mahut’s doubles partner Pierre Hugues-Herbert is unfortunately also a no-vaxxer. But he did not make a song and dance about it. He simply informed Nick Mahut that he would not participate at the AO. This is too bad because the two of them have been the best doubles team in 2021. But Pierre Hugues-Herbert didn’t behave like a diva. That’s the reason why most people are not aware of this.
          I am sure that Novak has very good sides, too. Many of those who know him personally, say so and I hhave no reason to doubt it. But even his long time coach seems to have distanced himself from Novak! And especially after the circus before the AO, I don’t care anymore about Novak’s good sides. While I respect his nice and sensible fans who appreciate his tennis – and yes, they do exist 😉 – personally I am done with him!

  5. amy,

    I had no idea about any of this. I was extremely unhappy with Novak trying to get around the fumes at the AO. The circus he created. Thinking that he did not have to obey the rule about being vaccinated. It was unfortunate to see him being dishonest about traveling. He had his lawyers going to court in Australia. But finally he had to leave the country. Refusing to be vaccinated is something I cannot abide in a terrible pandemic.

    Now you brought up all this other information. Really disturbing. I have acknowledged his achievements in this sport. But I have issues with him. His fans are a whole other thing entirely. The way they came here last year to trash Rafa and his fans after Novak beat Rafa at RG, is something I will never forget.

      • Nny, I haven’t mentioned it before because evidently it’s explosive information and there was already a lot of people angry with Novak about his anti Vax stance. I was really appalled when I read about it last year. I researched the issues thoroughly afterwards and Novak has a lot of questions to answer.

  6. Wimby officials cannot win this year. While they celebrate their centennial, they had to hand the Venus Rosewater Dish to a born Russian, and they will have to hand the men’s trophy either to a bully who may have assaulted his girlfriend* or to a no-vaxxer, who tried to trick the Aussies. But nothing can be done about this. However, sport results are immune to wishful thinking – and that is actually a good thing. Otherwise sports events are meaningless. And as far as the quality of tennis is concerned the match tomorrow might actually deliver!

    *We do not know, yet, if the accusations are credible or not. Therefore the presumption of innocence should be obeyed. But if it turns out to be true, NK’s fans should seriously think about their choices.

    • NK’s fans will probably applaud the abuse! They’re that sort. Yes, I know a lot of people are Rafans who are worried about the slam count. I’m not. Yeah, I’d like Rafa to end his career with the most slams but I don’t live and die by it and I do not believe in the stupid GOAT race. The Big 3 all have achievements that mean far more to me than the slam count.

      • I have never subscribed to the GOAT nonsense. And I never will. In each era there have been great players who left their mark and made special contributions to the sport. It would be abominable to ignore them.

        The Big 3 have their records and achievements that stand on their own.

  7. BTW Novak said after his semi thst this wimby final is very important as he does not know how many opptys he will get to be in that position. What exactly did he mean by that ? I found it very unlike him to be honest. He actually speaks infact the opposite .

    This uso maybe only one where he can’t play that too if usa does not lift it in August, ao has dropped its vaccination mandate and that ban will surely be appealed n overturned. Rg n wimby he anyway can play. Uso will not have vaccination mandate next year.

  8. I don’t care who wins the final, whatever will be will be.

    As for my comment about Djoko not being majestic here, I don’t see how that’s being a negative comment about him! He didn’t play all that well here this year, full stop!

    He was majestic in the past, as in 2011 and 2015. And how often he needed to be majestic to win his slams? He was taken to five sets even at his favourite slam, the AO, yet he survived to win the title in the end (eg AO2013 Vs Stan, AO2016 Vs Simon).

    I don’t question his greatness, he is well balanced at both wings, very flexible, has the best ROS and a very reliable serve; very good defensive skills, good stamina, can change direction of his shots very well and almost at will, and he among the active players has one of the best court positioning in his matches, he almost always is the one controlling the court except maybe against very aggressive big hitters.

    But in this Wimbledon, he’s not his majestic self, and even so, it’s still good enough for him to reach the final. I do agree with someone’s comment up there, that speaks of the lack of good grass court players nowadays.

    • Lucky,

      First, you do not have to defend your comment. We are here to express our opinions. There will be disagreements. If someone responds by attacking people, saying we are blind and narrow minded, that is a reflection on them!

      You have spoken about Novak’s strengths quite often. You have given him credit when he plays well. I debated whether to wade in on this when I read the majestic comment. I disagree with it. There are times in the past when I thought Novak played stellar tennis. I have given him all due credit. You mentioned a few good examples.

      Enough said! You have a right to your opinion and it dies nit maje you blind or narrow minded or all about Rafa!

  9. There’s one interesting point that Sanju brought out, that Fed is the better grass court player than Djoko.

    I think I have to agree with that, for Fed at his younger days when he won his Wimbledon titles, was rarely pushed to play five setters, accept against Rafa and Roddick at the business end, ie at the finals.

    Djoko OTOH, was pushed to five sets more often in the early rounds, against Cilic, Anderson or whoever. I guess that’s because Fed is the aggressor, playing first strike tennis so often on grass, whilst Djoko isn’t as aggressive a player on grass, and has to fight harder in the early rounds when he’s still vulnerable on grass.

    • Thats a tough call. You also have to take into account the H2H. Even if you leave 2019 finals, Djoker leads Fed 2-1 and coming into 2015 finals Fed was the red hot favorite. Fed is 4-4 in Wimby versus Nadal and Djoker and its not something that signifies that he was head and shoulders above these two guys here.

      • Fed was already 33 or 34 in 2014/2015 whilst Djoko was still in his 20s, at the peak of his career.

        I’m not sure Fed of 2006 or 2007 would lose to Djoko of 2014 or 2015 tbh. Fed in 2019 had CP against Djoko and almost won the match, and he was 37 or 38 yo at that time!

        A good way of looking at their grass court prowess may be their W/L records on grass, Fed is clearly ahead.

  10. Oh, I now remember what I’d posted in the past, during a discussion with Joe I think, that Djoko may one day catch up with Fed in the number of Wimbledon titles.

    Djoko is now on his way to number seven, and he’s not retiring from tennis yet, so there’s a possibility that he may reach Fed’s number of titles at Wimbledon.

  11. Had Rafa not retire, he might have this 23rd in his pocket.

    He would eventually still reach his 23rd or 24th this or next year. While Nole would get up to 26 in a few years to come

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