With January 2021 only a month away, we still don’t know when exactly next year’s Australian Open will happen. We can’t even be 100 percent that it will happen at all, but tournament organizers are confident that it will.
The bigger question is when. Although the season’s first Grand Slam generally takes place over the last two weeks in January, there are rumors that the 2021 edition could be in line for an early February start. That would allow for players to arrive in Victoria (the state that occupies Melbourne) and quarantine for two weeks while also potentially getting the chance to play some warmup events.
Whatever the case, we have to be positive and assume there will be a 2021 Australian Open in some shape or form at some point in time. With that, let’s take a look at the top contenders in addition to some potential sleepers on the men’s side.
The favorite: Novak Djokovic
Djokovic is an incredible 75-8 lifetime at the Aussie Open with a record eight titles. He is the two-time defending champion Down Under, having trounced Rafael Nadal in the 2019 final before outlasting Dominic Thiem in five sets this past season. Djokovic will be the top seed in 2021 after finishing the year No. 1 in the world for a record-tying sixth time. The Serb is understandably a massive favorite at +120. Betting tennis may be worth your while in 2021.
The contenders: Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem, and Daniil Medvedev
Although Djokovic is in a class by himself Down Under, there has never been as much parity among the second, third, and fourth favorites as there is for the upcoming slam. Gone are the days when the Big 3 are expected to completely dominate. Thiem and Daniil Medvedev, who just played in the Nitto ATP Finals championship match, have crashed the party. The third-ranked Austrian won the 2020 U.S. Open, while the fourth-ranked Russian finished runner-up at Flushing Meadows in 2019 and also hoisted the trophy in London last month. Meanwhile, Nadal is bidding to win the double career Grand Slam (the Australian Open is the only major he hasn’t won twice; Djokovic will is still trying to accomplish the same feat at the French Open). Nadal, Thiem, and Medvedev are all +500 to win the 2021 Aussie Open.
What to make of Roger Federer’s chances?
Federer is +1300 fifth choice to triumph in Melbourne. The 39-year-old Swiss will be a big x-factor heading into the tournament, and not just because of his age. Federer has not played a match since the 2020 Australian Open, as he opted for knee surgery shortly thereafter. Luckily for the 20-time major champion, he is still ranked No. 5 in the world thanks to the restructuring of the ATP rankings. Thus he will be a top-eight seed at the event instead of being unseeded
Dark horses: Andrey Rublev, Jannik Sinner, and Felix Auger-Aliassime
All of these guys (even Andrey Rublev at 23 years old) are probably still a while away from winning slams. But their talent level is such that they cannot be discounted–especially not at long odds. Rublev is +3000 to lift the Aussie Open trophy, while Sinner is +4000 and Auger-Aliassime is +15000. Both Rublev and Sinner were awesome in 2020, while Auger-Aliassime struggled at times but remains tipped as a future world No. 1. If one of them can come out of the gates hot in 2021, they could make some serious noise right off the bat–especially when so much uncertainty looms over the sport and the time could be right for some real surprises.
WWW?
Fed gets to the quarters….Thiem wins it all.
I think Novak & Thiem in the final once again with Thiem winning it…I also wondering whether we’re going to see Novak’s routine antics once again?Esp if the sets go to 5th?
C’mon AO!…Bring it on!
The best chances again will be
Nadal
Theim
Djokovic
Zverev
Nadal
Medvedev
Theim
Djokovic
Zverev
I don’t think Djokovic will win the 2021 Australian Open
Federer could do well fresh but I’ll be surprised if he makes it past the quarters. If he makes the semis he should be delighted.
Andrey Rublev can’t win. he’s overated and a notch below these guys.
Jannik Sinner is still too young and about a top 20 player at the moment. he will beat ex-champions like Cilic and Wawrinka but not the top group yet on their best surfaces.
Felix Auger-Aliassime – youre being very, very optimistic. he’s still a top 20-30 player at the moment and struggles with consistency.
https://www.afr.com/companies/sport/australian-open-set-for-february-despite-turmoil-20201201-p56jls
2 players that could surprise and make the quarters or semis are Coric and Humbert.
There’s a fair few players that are sliding and run the risk of never making it back to the top again. Some of these players are in the top 20 still, some outside the top 50.
It will take a fair bit of motivation for these players to regain their form after an interrupted season. I think there is a fair amount of change happening thats not obvious to most.
Maybe a fresh new year is what some of these players need.
Murray and Cilic are about a 5% chance of making the top 20 again.
Wawrinka is a 5% chance of making the top 10 again and will probably keep sliding.
Anderson is about 50% chance of making the top 20 again if he stays injury free.
Gsquet will probably make top 30 again if he continues to improve.
There’s about 20 players in the top 50 that I think will start sliding a lot in 2021.
If I had to pick 2 to win the AO pre-draw release, it would be Nadal and Medvedev.
Due to his genetics, Nadal still has another 1-2 years left where he can compete for the title on hardcourts.
I think Djokovic is struggling mentally and things aren’t getting any easier for him physically. He is much lighter in structure than Nadal and his defensive game takes more out of him compared to Federer’s game.
Djokovic should physically be pretty good in the long-term (assuming no lingering covid effects), but the problem that may face him as he gets older is a lack of offensive weapons.
As one would expect, Federer has been declining defensively for many years now. However he is still relatively aggressive off both wings and has the serve. Nadal has also faced a defensive decline in recent years which is pretty evident on hard courts. However he still has the forehand to end points, and his clay level is so far above anyone else that he could decline further and still win at RG.
For Djokovic, you would think he would need to play more aggressively as he ages if he wants to maximize his slam count. I do think he has the ability to end points quicker. He seems to have upped his use of the drop shot to ending points, but since this is a change-up tactic it’ll only take him so far. It will be interesting to see how he otherwise adapts his game in 2021+.
I think any of the guys on the poll list could win it. Tsitsi made a deep run to the semis 2 years ago and he’s a better player now – much of the time. If Sasha gets hot, maybe. Meddy and Thiem are obvious threats. Thiem will have more confidence this time around. Roger came back strong in 2017 and won it after taking most of 2016 off after knee surgery. Can he do it again, four years older? Nadal plays very well in AO but is cursed there for some reason.
Since 2016 the WTF winner has been “cursed” for the next year, or longer. Will Meddy be stricken next?
These are my odds to win it which arent too fair away from the market.
Nadal 4/1
Medvedev 4/1
Thiem 5.5/1
Djokovic 6/1
Zverev 10/1
Federer 20/1
Tsitispas 20/1
Ive had another look. My final pre-AO odds.
Medvedev 5/1
Nadal 5.5/1
Thiem 6/1
Djokovic 6.5/1
Zverev 10/1
Federer 16/1
Tsitsipas 22/1
Medvedev 5/1
Nadal 5/1
Djokovic 6/1
Federer 8/1
Zverev 9/1
Thiem 9/1
Tsitsipas 20/1
Im not speculating, just going off their prior performances and smoothing it as much as I can to make reasonable assertions.
Fed is probably a 10-12/1 chance given the layoff. Thiem can overperform but I have him 6 down the list based on his performances.
Nole will try all his dirty antics to win it all.