No. 7 Alex de Minaur and No. 8 Daniil Medvedev are the highest remaining seeds in the bottom half of the Washington, D.C. draw. They will face Brandon Nakashima and Corentin Moutet, respectively, in the semis on Friday.
(7) Alex de Minaur vs. (14) Brandon Nakashima
Even though De Minaur played well at Wimbledon (lost to Novak Djokovic in four sets in the fourth round), he showed signs of both mental and physical fatigue throughout the grass-court swing. His result on Thursday at the Mubadala Citi Open is a clear indication that he is feeling better on U.S. hard courts. The 13th-ranked Australian lost to Jiri Lehecka 6-4, 6-2 last month at Queen’s Club but beat the Czech 7-6(4), 6-7(6), 6-4 to secure his spot in the Washington, D.C. quarterfinals.
Up next for De Minaur on Friday is Nakashima, who won their only previous encounter 6-4, 6-0 on the indoor hard courts of Antwerp in 2021. Of course, there is not much to take from that matchup four years later. Nakashima has made plenty of strides since then, but not to the extent of De Minaur. Although the 32nd-ranked American solid, he struggles to challenge opponents who are superior on paper. Nakashima is 2-14 all time against top-10 players and 0-8 in his last eight such matches; De Minaur may not be in the top 10, but he has been recently and might as well be now. Nakashima is also 0-7 in his last seven matches against top-20 opponents. Those are alarming numbers, so the University or Virginia product will likely come up short once again as the competition level increases.
Pick: De Minaur in 2
(8) Daniil Medvedev vs. (LL) Corentin Moutet
Medvedev and Moutet will also be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers and the first time since 2021. Their only previous meeting came on the grass courts of Mallorca, where Medvedev rolled 6-4, 6-2. The 14th-ranked Russian would go on to win the U.S. Open later that summer, but he has been well off his peak form since the start of 2024. Shockingly, he has not won a single ATP title since the 2023 Rome Masters. Medvedev has defeated Reilly Opelka and Yibing Wu so far this week, but his only particularly good win this summer has come against Alexander Zverev in the Halle semifinals.
Moutet, on the other hand, is playing the best tennis of his life right now. The 26-year-old Frenchman is up to No. 59 in the world and will break into the top 50 for the first time if he prevails on Friday. After getting a lucky-loser spot in the Washington main draw (lost to Wu 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 in qualifying), Moutet has picked up the 17th and 18th main-tour victories of his season by ousting both Alexandre Muller and Dan Evans in straight sets. This is a tough matchup for Medvedev, who loves using opponents’ pace and breaking down big, inconsistent hitters (such as Opelka and Wu, for example). Moutet won’t offer anything like that, instead mixing in heavy-topspin forehands, slice backhands, and surely a whole host of drop-shots against a player who often likes to camp out far behind the baseline. This is a winnable match for the lefty.
Pick: Moutet in 3
How’s my ADF prediction at the start of the year that was heavily criticized looking? Not bad for someone that knows nothing.
Said he should be top 15 and was mocked and ridiculed.