Vienna final preview and prediction: Thiem vs. Schwartzman

Dominic Thiem will be trying to become just the third Austrian to win the Erste Bank Open since this tournament began in 1974 when he goes up against Diego Schwartzman in Sunday’s final.

Jurgen Melzer won it twice (2009, 2010) and before him only Horst Skoff treated the home crowd to a title back in 1988. Thiem is through to his first Vienna final in his ninth appearance and he is the first Austrian in the title match since Melzer beat countryman Andreas Haider-Maurer in 2010.

This marks the seventh career contest between Thiem and Schwartzman, with the former leading the head-to-head series 4-2. It is tied up at 1-1 on hard courts; Thiem prevailed 7-6(0), 7-5 at the 2015 Miami Masters, while Schwartzman got the job done 6-4, 6-7(7), 7-5 at the 2017 Montreal Masters. The two good friends have faced each other twice on clay this season, with Schwartzman surviving in a third-set tiebreaker at the Buenos Aires event before Thiem cruised 6-3, 6-3 in Barcelona.

A virus derailed Thiem’s hard-court summer, but the world No. 5 has suddenly found the range on a surface that is by no means in favorite–and he is doing it in time to take some confidence into another Nitto ATP Finals appearance. He won the Beijing title, reached the Shanghai quarterfinals, and so far this week has defeated Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Fernando Verdasco, Pablo Carreno Busta (via first-set retirement), and Matteo Berrettini.

“I never experienced such a great atmosphere here,” Thiem said after beating Berrettini 3-6, 7-5, 6-3. “It was full from the first point on. Such a loud atmosphere as well. It was perfect to play in and the match was on a very high level from the first to the last point…. With all the support and home advantage, I was able to pull through.

“I am very confident now. It was a tough match mentally and physically but it was not too late. There is going to be an amazing energy again tomorrow, so I am really looking forward to that. It was a big dream from the first time I came here when I was five or six years old to be there on Sunday and tomorrow is that day. I am going to be very ready.”

Schwartzman will be more than ready, too. The 15th-ranked Argentine is now a seven-time finalist on the ATP Tour (3-3 record in finals) with one of his triumphs having come at the 500-point level (Rio de Janeiro in 2018). He still has an outside chance at making a debut trip to the O2 Arena following Vienna victories over Pierre-Hugues Herbert, Sam Querrey (in a third-set tiebreaker), Karen Khachanov, and Gael Monfils.

This should be a fun one, but an edge goes to Thiem. He has been riding a wave of energy from the crowd, his level against Berrettini was outstanding just about the whole way, and his past success against Schwartzman is also worth nothing.

Pick: Thiem in 2

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