A couple of intriguing matchups in the bottom quarter of the draw are set for Sunday at the U.S. Open, including Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul. The winner will face either Ben Shelton or Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals.
(20) Tommy Paul vs. (2) Carlos Alcaraz
The first three matches of Alcaraz’s comeback to tennis could not have gone much better. In victories over Roman Safiullin, Jaime Faria, and Yibing Wu, Alcaraz dropped a total of one set (his first against Faria on Wednesday night). After being sidelined for more than four months by a wrist injury, the 23-year-old Spaniard is looking physically perfect and every part of his game — except maybe first-serve percentage — is clicking.
Up next for the Alcaraz on Sunday afternoon is a fourth-round showdown against Paul, marking the ninth encounter between these two familiar foes. Alcaraz leads their head-to-head series 6-2 and has won five in a row at Paul’s expense, most recently a 7-6(6), 6-4, 7-5 decision at the 2026 Australian Open. Paul gets another shot at the seven-time Grand Slam champion following wins over Coleman Wong, Dino Prizmic, and Alexander Zverev — the first two in four sets and the latter in five. The 21st-ranked American generally plays Alcaraz tough, and he should do the same in front of the home crowd. However, the world No. 3 is looking great and may have more in the tank since Paul battled through much tougher matches during week one.
Pick: Alcaraz in 4
(8) Ben Shelton vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Shelton and Tsitsipas will be squaring off for just the second time in their careers on Sunday night. Their only previous meeting came three years ago at the Cincinnati Masters, where Tsitsipas came out on top 7-6(3), 7-6(2). They have crossed paths in the rankings since then — and that’s an understatement. Shelton has climbed to No. 9 in the world and is playing well this summer with a second straight title at the Canada Masters 1000. The 23-year-old American has advanced so far at Flushing Meadows with four-set defeats of Tallon Griekspoor, Hubert Hurkacz, and Denis Shapovalov.
Tsitsipas had never gone deep in New York even when was in peak form. Suddenly, now that he finds himself down at No. 53 in the world, he is playing awesome tennis at this tournament. Tsitsipas upset Cincinnati champ Arthur Fils in round one and followed that up with wins over Lloyd Harris and Jiri Lehecka. This matchup with Shelton, however, feels stylistically worse for the 28-year-old Greek. Shelton’s huge lefty serve and forehand will pepper the Tsitsipas backhand over and over again. That backhand — the only one-hander left in this year’s field — is a shot that has struggled to withstand pressure throughout Tsitsipas’ career.
Pick: Shelton in 4
WWW?
I am not a particular Tsitsipas fan but he’s put together a good showing so far and if Shelton plays like he did against Shapo in the first two sets of the last match Tsitsipas will have him for breakfast. He wasn’t holding serve and isn’t that hot a returner — 10 Americans and 66 others return better than he does if you look at the leaderboard stats. That’s why I can’t see him winning this Slam or any other despite all the hype. He’s got to do some serious work on his return game before that becomes a possibility.
Paul is IMO a better all-rounder than Shelton for causing upset wins but Alcaraz is in amazing form already and looks hard to beat. Paul though will be the most serious competition Alcaraz has played here so far.
Yeah I agree. I now think Alcaraz will win instead of Shelton for that reason.
Agreed
Looks like Tsitsipas improved his backhand return against flat serves. I wonder if Shelton will throw in more kick serves in this match.
Carlos in 4; Shelton in 3 ( but Tpas did look great against Leheckha!)
Paul played well, Alcaraz returning after 4-5 months yet playing at this level is just insane. He looks ominous to say the least, unless his level dips considerably I don’t think anyone is getting close. If Alcaraz doesn’t have a considerable dip in form the next best bet is pushing him to a long 5 setter and see how his body hold. Even in this case the only person remotely capable of turning the match into a real physical battle is Medvedev. The first scenario is unlikely, second is a long shot otherwise it is curtains for everyone.
Yeah, looks like that, doesn’t it. Extraordinary stuff.
I don’t know Meddy will get a chance. Tiafoe got the first two sets so far, well done, but the job potentially far from over. But Tiafoe is looking very good to finish. And Michelsen just has.