U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Sinner vs. Auger-Aliassime

In a Grand Slam semifinal lineup that features Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic, Felix Auger-Aliassime is the one outsider.

If the underdog wants to extend his run all the way to the title match, he will have to pull off a massive upset of the world No. 1 on Friday night.

Surprisingly, Auger-Aliassime actually leads his head-to-head series against Sinner 2-1. However, both of the Canadian’s wins have come in 2022–well before his opponent became the current version of himself. Auger-Aliassime prevailed on the red clay of Madrid (6-1, 6-2) and on the outdoor hard courts of Cincinnati (2-6, 7-6(1), 6-1). They most recently faced each other earlier this summer in Cincinnati, where the story could not have been more different. Sinner rolled 6-0, 6-2.

The 24-year-old Italian has quite simply been the best player in the world dating back to the fall of 2023. He could lose the top ranking if he somehow falls to Auger-Aliassime or if Alcaraz lifts the trophy, but that’s only because Sinner was suspended for three months toward the beginning of 2025. When he has been on the court, he has been the best. That has certainly been the case so far this fortnight, as Sinner has advanced while dropping just one set–in the third round against Denis Shapovalov. Since that wakeup call, the top seed has destroyed Alexander Bublik 6-1, 6-1, 6-1 and Lorenzo Musetti 6-1, 6-4, 6-2.

Auger-Aliassime has also been outstanding in New York, and in his case it has come from somewhat out of nowhere. The 25-year-old had compiled a 13-16 record in his previous 29 matches dating back to the Dubai final in early March. He has suddenly picked up the pace to defeat Bill Harris, Roman Safiullin, Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev, and Alex de Minaur.

Unfortunately for Auger-Aliassime, he needed four hours and 10 minutes to overcome De Minaur 4-6, 7-6(7), 7-5, 7-6(4) on Wednesday. Now he has to get right back in action to face the best player in the world who just trounced him 6-0, 6-2? Yeah, that is not an enticing proposition. Slower conditions at night also won’t help the world No. 27, as it will be mored difficult to hit through the top seed and avoid long rallies.

It has been a great run for Auger-Aliassime, but this sets up perfectly for Sinner.

Pick: Sinner in 3