The U.S. Open draw will be made next week, which means seeding for the season’s fourth and final Grand Slam will be set following the Western & Southern Open. As always, the Cincinnati Masters is massively important not only in its own right as a 1000-point tournament but also because of the positions in which players can put themselves for New York.
Heading into the Cincinnati second round, here are the intriguing battles for ranking and seeding.
No. 1
Carlos Alcaraz will remain No. 1 no matter what if he advances to the Cincinnati final. Novak Djokovic will overtake Alcaraz for No. 1 if the Serb wins the title and Alcaraz loses prior to the final. If Alcaraz loses prior to the semifinals, Djokovic will become No. 1 if he reaches the final.
No. 4
This battle, of course, is huge. Whoever is No. 4 is the top seed in his respective quarter of the U.S. Open draw and avoids facing Alcaraz, Djokovic, and Daniil Medvedev until at least the semifinals.
Holger Rune, Casper Ruud, Jannik Sinner, and Stefanos Tsitsipas are in contention. Rune is the current leader and will be No. 4 if he equals or betters the Cincinnati result of the other three. Ruud will surpass Rune if the Norwegian advances farther in the tournament. Sinner must reach at least the quarterfinals to have a chance; if he does, any result better than that of Rune and Ruud would be enough. If Rune wins just a single match in Cincinnati, Tsitsipas would have to reach the final to have a chance.
No. 16
Cameron Norrie, who is currently 16th, lost in the opening round. Lorenzo Musetti will pass Norrie if he reaches the quarterfinals. Both Hubert Hurkacz and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina would have to reach the final to pass Norrie.
No. 24
Tallon Griekspoor, who is currently 24th, lost in the opening round. Both Borna Coric and Adrian Mannarino would pass Griekspoor by reaching the quarterfinals. Mannarino must better Coric’s result to overtake the Croat (Coric is currently 28th; Mannarino is 29th). Ugo Humbert must reach at least the semifinals. Lorenzo Sonego, Mackenzie McDonald, Yoshihito Nishioka, Ben Shelton, Alexei Popyrin, and Stan Wawrinka would have to reach the final.
No. 32
Sebastian Korda, who is currently 32nd (up from No. 33 because of Denis Shapovalov’s U.S. Open withdrawal), lost in the opening round. Sonego would pass Korda by reaching the quarterfinals. McDonald, Nishioka, Shelton, Popyrin, and Wawrinka have to reach the semifinals to have a chance. Emil Ruusuvuori, Dusan Lajovic, and Max Purcell have to reach the final.
#4 battle is epic