U.S. Open R3 previews and predictions: Paul vs. Davidovich Fokina, Shelton vs. Karatsev

Americans Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton are on a collision course for the fourth round of the 2023 U.S. Open. Standing in their ways on Friday are Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Aslan Karatsev, respectively.

(14) Tommy Paul vs. (21) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

In terms of both projected quality and the stakes involved, Paul vs. Davidovich Fokina is without question Friday’s marquee matchup in round three of the U.S. Open. The winner will have a great chance to reach at least the quarterfinals and perhaps even the semis in a wide-open third section of the draw. This marks their third head-to-head showdown, with Paul having won both of their previous encounters earlier in 2023. The American prevailed 6-2, 2-6, 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-4 at the Australian Open and 6-3, 7-5 at the Miami Masters.

Paul has remained in outstanding form since those results. The world No. 14 was runner-up in Eastbourne, upset Carlos Alcaraz en route to the Toronto semifinals, and lost to Alcaraz in a three-setter in the Cincinnati third round. Paul opened in New York with a four-set defeat of Stefano Travaglia before coming back from two sets down to beat Roman Safiullin in five. Davidovich Fokina coasted past both Marcos Giron and Juan Manuel Cerundolo in straight sets. Fortunately for Paul, his five-setter against Safiullin wasn’t overly taxing from a physical standpoint so he should have plenty of left in the tank for this one. Playing at home in the United States on a surface that favors his game, Paul should be able to make it 3-0 lifetime at Davidovich Fokina’s expense.

Pick: Paul in 5

Ben Shelton vs. Aslan Karatsev

Shelton and Paul squared off in the Australian Open quarterfinals (Paul won in four sets) and they will battle each other for a quarterfinal spot at Flushing Meadows if they both advance on Friday. A fantastic draw continues for Shelton, who defeated clay-courter Pedro Cachin in round one and then got an early retirement from Dominic Thiem on Wednesday. Now he faces Karatsev, who is struggling down at No. 77 in the world. The Russian was 3-7 in his last 10 matches heading into this fortnight and he has gone five straight slams without making it past the third round.

Although Shelton has not been great since the Aussie Open, he is right at home on American hard courts and the conditions in New York are good for his big-hitting tactics. The world No. 47 lost only nine games in his last three sets against Cachin and took a high-quality first set against Thiem in a tiebreaker before the Austrian called it quits. Shelton will likely power his way to victory in front of the home crowd.

Pick: Shelton in 4