U.S. Open R1 previews and predictions: Medvedev vs. Gasquet, Rublev vs. Karlovic

In-form Russians Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev will kick off their U.S. Open campaigns on Monday with a couple of grizzled veterans on the other side of the net. They are going up against Richard Gasquet and Ivo Karlovic, respectively.

Richard Gasquet vs. (2) Daniil Medvedev

The next step for Medvedev to take is winning a Grand Slam title. He has done just about everything else, including four Masters 1000 triumphs (most recently in Toronto a few weeks ago), a victory at the 2020 Nitto ATP Finals, and two major runner-up performances (2019 U.S. Open, 2020 Australian Open). The second-ranked Russian, who made it back to the U.S. Open semis last summer, heads to New York this time around as the No. 2 seed and second favorite behind Novak Djokovic. Medvedev boasts a 40-10 record this season and he is 18-3 in his last 21 matches dating back to the week before Wimbledon.

Up first for Medvedev on Monday night in Arthur Ashe Stadium is a third career meeting with Gasquet. The head-to-head series stands at one win apiece; Gasquet prevailed 6-0, 6-3 at the 2018 Montpellier tournament before Medvedev got the job done 3-6, 6-3, 6-0 two years later in St. Petersburg–also indoors. At 35 years old, the Frenchman arrives in NYC with a lackluster ranking of 82nd in the world. He is playing decent at the moment, though, with a recent runner-up showing on the clay courts of Umag and a quarterfinal effort in Winston-Salem. However, Gasquet struggled physically throughout his week in Winston-Salem and a best-of-five battle with Medvedev is just about the most difficult physical test one can have. It’s hard to see this one being especially competitive; expect Gasquet to wear down as the match progresses.

Pick: Medvedev in 3

(5) Andrey Rublev vs. (Q) Ivo Karlovic

Karlovic could be playing the final match of his lengthy career on Monday. Although there have been no confirmed reports, the 42-year-old Croat is expected to announce his retirement following his run at the U.S. Open. And it has already been a successful one for Karlovic, who qualified for the main draw with defeats of Nikola Milojevic, Hugo Dellien, and Yuichi Sugita. The former world No. 14 is ranked 223rd and he has won just two ATP-level matches this year.

Karlovic’s reward for qualification may not be exactly what he had in mind, as Rublev is one of the toughest possible opponents in the field. The seventh-ranked Russian leads the tour with 67 match wins in the past 52 weeks and he just reached the Cincinnati final (upset Medvedev in the semis before falling to Alexander Zverev). Karlovic’s serve may keep him competitive for a while, but he hasn’t faced anyone in the top 35 since January of 2020 so this is going to be a rude awakening for the veteran. Count on Rublev sending Karlovic into a well-deserved retirement in mostly routine fashion.

Pick: Rublev in 3