U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Tiafoe vs. Shelton

There was one American man in the U.S. Open semifinals last year and there will be at least one in the semifinals this year.

Once again, it could be Frances Tiafoe.

Tiafoe, who upset Rafael Nadal en route to last four in 2022, will look to make a repeat appearance there when he goes up against Ben Shelton in a blockbuster all-American quarterfinal showdown on Tuesday. Shelton is bidding for his first slam semifinal, but this is already his second quarterfinal in the very early stages of his career (also at the Australian Open to begin this season).

The first ever Tiafoe-Shelton matchup promises to be a fun one, as it features two of the most exciting players on tour–certainly, at least, when it comes to the nation that is hosting this particular Grand Slam. Tiafoe thrilled the home crowd last summer and is doing the same this time around with victories over Learner Tien, Sebastian Ofner, Adrian Mannarino, and Rinky Hijikata. Only Mannarino was competitive, as the Frenchman forced a fourth-set tiebreaker.

If Shelton wasn’t already the breakout star on the ATP Tour in 2023, he most definitely is now. The 20-year-old has powered his way into the quarters–complete with multiple 149 MPH serves–by beating Pedro Cachin, Dominic Thiem, Aslan Karatsev, and Tommy Paul. Shelton has not yet been pushed to five sets, not even by a red-hot Paul.

“Ben has wanted to play me at the Open for a long time,” Tiafoe said, “so he’s going to be super excited. He’s going to come out with a lot of energy. I’m just going to have to tame him down, try to be the vet and get the win. It’s going to be good. It’s going to be a great atmosphere–I think great representation for people of color, right? Two people of color playing in the quarterfinals, huge match on Arthur Ashe. It’s a pretty monumental moment. I’m pretty excited to compete against him. Hopefully it’s a great battle.”

“Frances as a player is electric,” Shelton added. “He’s kind of been like a brother to me since I’ve been out here on tour and a guy who has kind of told me that he believed in me from my first ATP tournament. Just a great guy off the court–but on the court a nightmare to deal with. He does so many things well, one of them being engaging the crowd.

“He’s just one of those guys where it’s must-see TV. You want to watch him play all the time. He kind of has that Carlos Alcaraz effect, especially here in New York. This is his place where he really wants to show up. To be able to play against him in the quarterfinals on Arthur Ashe is something that’s pretty special.”

It could end up being the most special day of Shelton’s career to date. Tiafoe is a player who thrives on the atmosphere and on crowd support, as he did at the 2022 U.S. Open. Against another American, though, it will be split. It may be slightly pro-Tiafoe, but not by a lot–especially not after Shelton delivers a few crowd-pleasing 140 (or maybe even 150?) MPH bombs.

In what projects to be a competitive contest, Tiafoe is probably more likely than Shelton to turn in a loose service game in the pressure-packed moments. If Shelton continues to serve well, an upset is well within reach.

Pick: Shelton in 5