U.S. Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Medvedev

Medvedev Djokovic
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The 2023 U.S. Open final will be a rematch of sorts. It just won’t be the one anybody expected.

Instead of Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz meeting again on the heels of their epic finals at Wimbledon and the Cincinnati Masters, Djokovic will be going up against Daniil Medvedev on Sunday afternoon in New York. That’s because Medvedev took down the top-ranked Spaniard 7-6(3), 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 in Friday’s semifinal nightcap.

Thus we have the same matchup that played out on championship Sunday in Arthur Ashe Stadium just two summers ago. With Djokovic one win away for securing the calendar-year Grand Slam, Medvedev dominated from start to finish for a 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 victory.

Overall the head-to-head series stands at 9-5 in favor of Djokovic, but it has mostly been an even, back-and-forth ride since the Serb once held a 3-0 advantage. Medvedev’s 2021 U.S. Open triumph wrapped up a stretch in which he won four of six meetings. Djokovic answered by winning four in a row (including in a three-set Paris final later in 2021), but Medvedev halted that losing streak by prevailing 6-4, 6-4 earlier this season in Dubai.

Now the 27-year-old is ready for an opponent who will be eager to turn the tide back in his favor.

“Against Novak, it’s the same,” Medvedev explained. “He is always better than previous time he plays. For example, I beat him (in the 2021) U.S. Open final; he beat me in Bercy in a great match. Carlos beat him (at) Wimbledon; he beat [Carlos] in Cincinnati.

“Novak is going to be his best version on Sunday, and I have to be the best-ever version of myself if I want to try to beat him.”

Medvedev is almost always his best version of himself at Flushing Meadows. This marks his third trip the final, as he finished runner-up to Rafael Nadal in a five-setter two years before lifting the trophy. As usual, the world No. 3 is also in awesome form in front of the New York crowd this time around. He has advanced with victories over Attila Balazs, Christopher O’Connell, Sebastian Baez, Alex de Minaur, Andrey Rublev, and Alcaraz. No one–not even Alcaraz–has even forced a fifth set.

Djokovic has also been dominant this fortnight. The No. 2 seed had to come back from two sets down against Laslo Djere in round three, but he otherwise made quick work of Alexandre Muller, Bernabe Zapata Miralles, Borna Gojo, Taylor Fritz, and Ben Shelton.

Don’t sleep on this matchup. It’s not Djokovic vs. Alcaraz, but Djokovic vs. Medvedev was the best rivalry in tennis for a couple of seasons before Alcaraz rose to fame. It delivered the goods on a consistent basis, and that’s exactly what it should do again on Sunday.

Although this is a very winnable match for a red-hot Medvedev, Djokovic isn’t dealing with calendar-year Grand Slam pressure like he was in 2021. The 36-year-old is looking like the best player in the world–and the rankings will confirm as much on Monday regardless of if he wins or loses the final. It almost certainly won’t be easy, but Djokovic will likely regain the No. 1 spot with a win.

Pick: Djokovic in 5

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21 Comments on U.S. Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Medvedev

  1. You need to be battle hardened to win a slam..who exactly has djokovic beaten ? Not even one name of significance…lets not even talk of the Djere match…he had no business going down 2 sets there firsly ..

    I am giving djokovic the edge but I think medvedev will be on sky high confidence after beating carlos..he said carlos was his main obstacle

    Secondly meddy said he hoped post uso ppl talk of hi..did that statement mean anything?

    • It’s true he hasn’t faced anyone tough in this tournament, but he’s spent 15+ years being battle hardened against the best, so I don’t think it’ll matter. In 2021 he cracked under the pressure, I don’t see that happening here since he’s not chasing a calendar slam. Med can win, but he basically said it himself – he needs to play lights out.

      I’m going Djokovic in 4

  2. Day match unless they close the roof like today..not sure who will prefer what..

    Crowd will be pro djokovic compared to meddy

    Djokovic has the edge ,he’s the fav but I think medvedev wants this too real bad…2 years since he won his first

  3. Definitely think Meddy has a real.chance. Even when he has periods when his form is off he raises his level against Novak. Novak is the fave but Meddy has a big chance to win. He has to serve lights out to win.

  4. I disagree slightly with Sanju (above)….I think the crowd will be Pro-Medvedev….Joker did not win any popularity contests yesterday in Shelton match…and Med playing 11 out of 10 right now…in 4.

    • Indeed, Novak isn’t going to count on crowd support. Medvedev needs his first serve working well enough to ace his way through games like prime time Federer used to do.
      There was a magical feel to the contest vs. Carlos, and I doubt that feeling will be there when it’s Novak that Meddy is playing. Both players yesterday were flying to get balls. Novak is no slouch regarding speed, and he anticipates as well as anyone.
      Carlos can jump like a frisbee pup and be suspended in the air. They both had superpowers in that SF.

      I doubt the match will be as joyful and beautiful as that SF. It feels like Novak will win. The smiling Spaniard won’t be there. Of course, I could be wrong.

  5. “Joker did not win any popularity contests yesterday in Shelton match…”

    As Nole fan I am more than happy he didn’t win popularity contest, who would have liked to win rowdy and nasty NY fans anyway?!
    Besides, when they were cheering him he lost to Medvedev, Nole feeds on nasty and negative fans, after all, he won 7 Wimbledons having fans against him every single final, and lost UISO final having fans cheering him for the first and hopefully last time.

    Tennis is not popularity contest, it’s gladiator battle.

    By saying this, Medvedev is bad match up for Nole, even Nole has positive head to head.

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  1. U.S. Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Medvedev – Bollettieri
  2. U.S. Open tennis final pick and prediction: Djokovic vs. Medvedev - Sports Betting Digest
  3. U.S. Open tennis final pick and prediction: Djokovic vs. Medvedev - Sports News World

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