U.S. Open final expert picks: Sinner vs. Alcaraz

Expert picks are back for the seemingly inevitable U.S. Open final showdown between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. A three-team panel makes its predictions for Sunday afternoon’s proceedings.

Ricky: To be clear, I don’t feel overly confident about this pick given Alcaraz’s level of play in New York and Sinner’s physical question marks (arm and abdominal)–albeit minor ones. That being said, it isn’t enough for me to waffle on my pre-tournament pick of Sinner. The world No. 1 has been on the ropes physically a whole host of times throughout his career and always seems to come back out like gangbusters. Aside from two sets lost in New York (both to Canadians in Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime), Sinner has been utterly dominant this fortnight. There is also no reason to be alarmed by his 5-9 record against Alcaraz. Their recent Cincinnati final can be thrown out the window since the 24-year-old had to retire after just five games due to illness. Sinner should be 2-0 in slam finals against Alcaraz this season. After having triple-championship point in Paris, he criused 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 at Wimbledon. I think Sinner is the better player right now and can get across the finish line in four…but if it goes five, I would definitely give the edge to Alcaraz. Sinner in 4: 7-5, 6-7(4), 6-3, 7-6(6).

Cheryl: I frequently find myself thinking “what the hell is this?!?!” when I watch Sinner play. He is capable of a brand of comprehensive dominance that I’ve never quite seen before. A buzzsaw, if you will. And I mean that with the full power of the literary metaphor that the term “buzzsaw” evokes. He is precise in his devastation, dispassionately carving his opponent’s game into pieces. Except Alcaraz. Since 2024, Sinner’s record against all opponents NOT named Alcaraz is 104-4. His record against Alcaraz? 1-6. Sinner did manage to exorcise a few Spanish demons with his win in the Wimbledon final, but I can’t shake the feeling that Sinner is always going to be vulnerable on the Alcaraz front. As far as current U.S. Open form? I give an ever-so-slight edge to the Spaniard. Auger-Aliassime made Sinner work harder than expected for his four-set victory, while Alcaraz dispatched Novak Djokovic in straight sets. Sure, Djokovic is 107 years old at this point–but since he’s the literal GOAT, it’s worth noting that Alcaraz never once looked like he was in danger of losing that semifinal. That being said, Sinner is a better hard-court player than Alcaraz and picking against the best player in the world on his best surface isn’t a risk I’m willing to take. Sinner in 5: 6-4, 6-7(8), 7-5, 4-6, 7-5.

Pete (Tennis Acumen): Yet again we have the final that nearly everyone expected and many wanted: Sinner-Alcaraz. This series is gradually becoming “Groundhog Day,” like the movie in which Bill Murray lives the same day over and over again–only here, we must wait until the conclusion of the major or Masters 1000 in which both players have entered. They meet for the fifth time this year–all in finals, of course–and for the third consecutive major. Naturally when the H2H is reviewed, one sees that Alcaraz has won six of the last seven dating back to Indian Wells last year. Fact. That being said, Sinner is bidding to win his fourth major in the last five played; Alcaraz is seeking to complete a twin set at Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open. Not only is Sinner defending the title in New York, but he will also need to win to maintain the world No. 1 ranking–a position he has held since last June. The Italian will be more consistent on Sunday and–unlike in the Roland Garros final–will have most of the answers on the bigger points of this duel. Sinner in 4: 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 7-5.